Back in 1980 there was a famous bet between Paul Ehrlich and Julian Simon. Ehrlich believed that the finite nature of commodities and the growth in population meant that they would become more scarce, thus prices would rise.
Simon believed that market forces would continue to make commodities cheaper, and that science would solve all supply problems.
Between 1980 and 1990 the five commodities Ehrlich chose (chromium, copper, tin, nickel and tungsten) did indeed become cheaper (in real terms).
Some commentators believe that a more 'realistic' selection of measures (pollution, incidence of AIDS, blobal temperature etc.) would vindicate Ehrlich's Cassandra-like views.
Imagine you were trying to demonstrate the improvement/destruction of our biosphere. What measures would you like to see taken to compare the state of the world now and the state of the world in 2015? And what do you predict the results would be?
I would:
Measure sea levels / temperatures
Measure the amount of pollutants in water, air and soil
Measure the melting of ice and snow in the caps and on mountains
Count disease victims (cancer, aids, diabetes and astma) now and in 10 years time.
Count birth defects now and in 10 years time.
This should give a rough indication which pollutants (like depleted uranium in which areas) are on the increase / decrease and what the earth's / inhabitant's status is (health wise).
I don't know how you would be able to prove one was a consequence of the other though.
My opinion is that the Earth is going to pot and we best make the best of the coming 10 years.
Pollution, medling with genetics (GM crops and Dolly the sheep), for example) and disease are going to give the human race a hell of a lot of problems.
Pollution and global warming are going to make a hell of a lot of land arid (desert like) causing crop failure, price hikes on live stock and displacement of peoples.
Oil will run out.
Originally posted by shavixmirWater deficit is (apparently, a friend of mine who works on that type thing told me this - personally I believe him, but am also quite willing to get refernces to prove it too) going to be the biggest problem of the next century.
I would:
Measure sea levels / temperatures
Measure the amount of pollutants in water, air and soil
Measure the melting of ice and snow in the caps and on mountains
Count disease victims (cancer, aids, diabetes and astma) now and in 10 years time.
Count birth defects now and in 10 years time.
This should give a rough indication which pollutants ...[text shortened]... using crop failure, price hikes on live stock and displacement of peoples.
Oil will run out.
Personally I think GM is a way that arid and salinity affected lands can be better used. I'm planning to open a GM thread pretty soon though Shav, so bear with me....