Originally posted by Palynka What don't you understand about my answer? Your question is loaded because it presumes 30 was a "fair" price explained by fundamentals alone.
Try starting your answers with either a Yes or a No. Then go on to explain why Yes or No is the correct answer. Weren't you taught that in grade school?
Originally posted by uzless Try starting your answers with either a Yes or a No. Then go on to explain why Yes or No is the correct answer. Weren't you taught that in grade school?
I also learned that usually the questions that separated the good from the excellent were the ones that cannot be answered by yes or no, but by stating that the question is wrongly posed.
Originally posted by uzless Try starting your answers with either a Yes or a No. Then go on to explain why Yes or No is the correct answer. Weren't you taught that in grade school?
Not every yes or no question can be answered with a yes or a no.
Originally posted by Palynka I also learned that usually the questions that separated the good from the excellent were the ones that cannot be answered by yes or no, but by stating that the question is wrongly posed.
I guess you never got there.
Why is it so hard for you to just say that you think oil going down to 30 dollars was not a function of an over supply or an under demand but because of irrational fear in the market. Once that fear was removed, oil returned to its natural demand/supply balance that we see today at around 60 bux/barrel.
Your half-assed rebuttals are becoming tiresome. If you prefer 5 word arguments, I suggest you move down the hall to Mr. Jones's room...he may be a bit too conciliatory for you though
Originally posted by uzless Why is it so hard for you to just say that you think oil going down to 30 dollars was not a function of an over supply or an under demand but because of irrational fear in the market. Once that fear was removed, oil returned to its natural demand/supply balance that we see today at around 60 bux/barrel.
Your half-assed rebuttals are becoming tiresome. I ...[text shortened]... st you move down the hall to Mr. Jones's room...he may be a bit too conciliatory for you though
My first reply:
Again you commit the mistake of thinking 30 bux was a "fair" price. Do you seriously believe there was no undershooting?
It isn't hard to understand. However in the quoted post again you assume that 60 bux is a "natural" demand/supply balance? Why?
Originally posted by Palynka My first reply:
Again you commit the mistake of thinking 30 bux was a "fair" price. Do you seriously believe there was no undershooting?
It isn't hard to understand. However in the quoted post again you assume that 60 bux is a "natural" demand/supply balance? Why?
I didn't assume any natural demand/supply balance! I simply stated that the current doubling of price was due to speculation and provided evidence in an article yesterday showing that once the speculators saw that the reserve supplies had increased 20% they realized not many people would actually be buying the oil for a while so they headed for the exits and sold their positions causing oil prices to drop.
it has nothing to do with what the natural demand/supply balance since Investors can swing the price of oil up or down regardless of the natural demand/supply balance. We saw that last year as it went up to $147/barrel for no good reason other than speculation.
Now, if you think i'm wrong, explain in DETAIL where the error(s) are. Show me something. Make it worth my time here.
Originally posted by uzless I didn't assume any natural demand/supply balance! I simply stated that the current doubling of price was due to speculation and provided evidence in an article yesterday showing that once the speculators saw that the reserve supplies had increased 20% they realized not many people would actually be buying the oil for a while so they headed for the exits and rong, explain in DETAIL where the error(s) are. Show me something. Make it worth my time to
There are news that supply increased, prices fall. Which part is demand/supply and which part is speculation?
Originally posted by Palynka There are news that supply increased, prices fall. Which part is demand/supply and which part is speculation?
clean out the dark exchanges, have reports on who is buying and who is selling available to the public and I'll be able to tell you exactly how much is speculation.
But this is the point. WE CAN'T TELL! All we know is that the NYMEX saw a 14% increase in oil speculative buys during the run up. Who knows what was happening on the other dark exchanges.
Originally posted by uzless clean out the dark exchanges, have reports on who is buying and who is selling available to the public and I'll be able to tell you exactly how much is speculation.
But this is the point. WE CAN'T TELL! All we know is that the NYMEX saw a 14% increase in oil speculative buys during the run up. Who knows what was happening on the other dark exchanges.
Make the exchanges transparent!
I agree.
But why do you need transparency? I thought you already knew everything about how much is demand/supply and how much is due to speculators.
Originally posted by uzless clean out the dark exchanges, have reports on who is buying and who is selling available to the public and I'll be able to tell you exactly how much is speculation.
But this is the point. WE CAN'T TELL! All we know is that the NYMEX saw a 14% increase in oil speculative buys during the run up. Who knows what was happening on the other dark exchanges.
Make the exchanges transparent!
What's the difference? In the end, speculation may temporarily distort the market price, up or down, but in the end the fundamentals rule, and the speculators who are wrong go down in flames as well they should. Those who read the fundamentals correctly are rewarded. That's the way a free market should work.
Originally posted by Palynka Go read what I wrote. I said it was both and I still stand by that.
Ouch, he just slapped you silly. That's alright Palynka, I wasn't here to correct you. I knew it was speculation. Didn't you hear the original analysis calling for $100/barrel and the subsequent surge ahead with new analysis stating that with a war they were then saying it could hit $200? Just cause it approached $150??? Surely you could not have called that bubble supply and demand... ok, actually, you I believe that you did. Just reminded you of the importance of applying economics appropriately.
Originally posted by eljefejesus Ouch, he just slapped you silly. That's alright Palynka, I wasn't here to correct you. I knew it was speculation. Didn't you hear the original analysis calling for $100/barrel and the subsequent surge ahead with new analysis stating that with a war they were then saying it could hit $200? Just cause it approached $150??? Surely you could not have c ...[text shortened]... lieve that you did. Just reminded you of the importance of applying economics appropriately.
Hilarious. You don't know what I wrote, yet you think he slapped me silly?
Surely you could not have called that bubble supply and demand... ok, actually, you I believe that you did. No, I didn't. Nice making a fool of yourself.
04 Jun '09 13:53
The ugly Oil speculators Return??
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