The US Curve

March 2nd there were 100 cases in the US.
Every four days since then the number of cases has tripled, up to today ,March 22nd, when we hit 27,000 cases.
If it triples again by March 26th as expected we're looking at 80,000 cases, and a quarter million by the end of the month.
If it doesn't slow down in April we're looking at 1.5 million by April 7th.
Want to get a pool going on where we'll be April 7?

Track death rates. Those numbers are not affected by not testing. Positives will grow just by testing.

Almost all people who get this virus survive.

@eladar said
Track death rates. Those numbers are not affected by not testing. Positives will grow just by testing.

Almost all people who get this virus survive.

@dood111 said
March 2nd there were 100 cases in the US.
Every four days since then the number of cases has tripled, up to today ,March 22nd, when we hit 27,000 cases.
If it triples again by March 26th as expected we're looking at 80,000 cases, and a quarter million by the end of the month.
If it doesn't slow down in April we're looking at 1.5 million by April 7th.
Want to get a pool going on where we'll be April 7?

@dood111 said
Deaths are doubling every three days, still not very reassuring.

@wolfgang59 said
About right. That would be quadrupling every 6 days.

Deaths are easier to measure!

@dood111 said
Deaths are doubling every three days, still not very reassuring.

@deepthought said
Well yes, but unless it's after hospitalization it's not obvious what they've died from. Under normal circumstances it's rare that there's an autopsy after an elderly person has died and since the medical and associate professions are under pressure at the moment it seems unlikely that they'll enquire, so deaths could be being undercounted. Especially if they're not discovered for a little while when the cause of death might be somewhat obscured.

@eladar said
Deaths are doubling every three days? That happens early on. It is the rate at which the deaths occur that is important.

1 death then 1 more the number of deaths double.

There has been no growth in the number of deaths in the US for 4 days, but today the number of deaths will go up.

@dood111 said
No growth in deaths US for four days?
March 18 we had 150, March 22 we have 414.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Where are you getting your figures?

@eladar said
I said no growth in deaths per day. The rate at which people died did not go up.

@dood111 said
Noooooo....here's what you said:
"There has been no growth in the number of deaths in the US for 4 days, but today the number of deaths will go up."

There is good news in all of this. Of all the deaths from the Wuhan flu, 100% of them were either men or women. None of the other 52 genders have been effected.

So, win.

@huckleberryhound said
There is good news in all of this. Of all the deaths from the Wuhan flu, 100% of them were either men or women. None of the other 52 genders have been effected.

So, win.