No not his political leaning, but is it possible that after his many bungled and failed business attempts over a lifetime of wheeler dealing, where major projects have gone belly up and people not paid, Trump has finally landed himself in the perfect position, to claim credit for an economic recovery that in the eyes of his fans ( Fox News) will make him look like a genius.
The IMF has just come out to adjust up its forecast of global growth in 2018 from 3.6 to 3.9%. The reason for the projected uptick is lowered US corporate tax rates.
Notwithstanding Obama's steady hands in allowing the Fed and a Wall St stacked Treasury avoiding what should have been a total financial collapse bigger than the great depression and landing the world's biggest economy as softly as possible, allowing whichever administration had followed an economy ready to run again, if the IMF's forecast is good, will Trump reap the benefit of simply being in power at the right time of the business cycle?
No doubt if this pans out the right way, he will boast that it was all because of him, Trump, whose single minded focus helped ram through the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, that this economic turnaround is possible, and no doubt, his cheer squad will champion his brilliance from dusk to dawn.
But if the IMF is correct and the economy starts to boom, will it close the window on that more progressive mindset that would rather see higher taxes pay for better social outcomes like universal healthcare, and better outcomes through a better funded education system. Is it likely that in this phase of the post GFC recovery, the lower taxing mantra will actually work and create more jobs in the short term, enough for the champions of voodoo to say, you've doubted us for too long, here's your proof it works, putting the cause of an equitable social democracy back for another 20 years?
Originally posted by @kmax87The IMF has been a neoliberal stronghold for a long time. Of course, it will project that massive tax cuts will stimulate growth even if there is a dearth of economic history supporting such a conclusion.
No not his political leaning, but is it possible that after his many bungled and failed business attempts over a lifetime of wheeler dealing, where major projects have gone belly up and people not paid, Trump has finally landed himself in the perfect position, to claim credit for an economic recovery that in the eyes of his fans ( Fox News) will make him loo ...[text shortened]... r proof it works, putting the cause of an equitable social democracy back for another 20 years?
We simply don't know what effect the tax cuts will have. The US economy is in a cyclical upturn, but many factors can change that.
Originally posted by @no1marauderHe'll still take credit for it, and it will amp up his fan base. Not that you would want the country to do badly to be rid of him, but it would seem in spite of Trump the country will be doing very well. The hard sell will be to convince people it would have happened anyway.
....We simply don't know what effect the tax cuts will have. The US economy is in a cyclical upturn, but many factors can change that.
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Originally posted by @no1marauderThe IMF in particular, and the majority of influential economists in general, only look at the sum total "worth" of the economy to judge success. Which means they only care about megacorporations and billionaire individuals; how the lower 75% actually live and whether small businesses go broke doesn't matter to them at all. Speculating on which of these is cause and which effect is futile.
The IMF has been a neoliberal stronghold for a long time. Of course, it will project that massive tax cuts will stimulate growth even if there is a dearth of economic history supporting such a conclusion.
We simply don't know what effect the tax cuts will have. The US economy is in a cyclical upturn, but many factors can change that.
Of course, they're still all horrible pinky socialist Eurocrats, but that's mainly because they care about megacorps and billionaires all over the world, not just in Trump^wMuhrica.
Originally posted by @kmax87I was reading something on this a few days ago; about his ratings being the lowest of any first year POTUS and yet many of the US economic indicators a positive.
No not his political leaning, but is it possible that after his many bungled and failed business attempts over a lifetime of wheeler dealing, where major projects have gone belly up and people not paid, Trump has finally landed himself in the perfect position, to claim credit for an economic recovery that in the eyes of his fans ( Fox News) will make him loo ...[text shortened]... r proof it works, putting the cause of an equitable social democracy back for another 20 years?
There’s a few aspects to this I think; firstly has he even been in power long enough to really have any impact on the strategic direction of the US economy?
Secondly business requires stability and predictability in economic outlook and not necessarily a sound social policy in order confidently move forward, and maybe there is something of that albeit tactical, in this administration.
Thirdly he isn’t making friends and Obama was good at doing that, even if he stumbles into some medium term success I just can’t see him getting a second term as any tactical results aren’t reflective of his methods.
How receptive do you think someone at the intellectual level of a Trump voter is to thorough economic analysis? As long as the economy doesn't reach Venezuela-type levels of meltdown, the GOP propaganda machine can easily convince people that the economy is doing great, and that it's doing great because of Trump.
Originally posted by @kazetnagorraHow's that working so far? Trump remains historically unpopular.https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html
How receptive do you think someone at the intellectual level of a Trump voter is to thorough economic analysis? As long as the economy doesn't reach Venezuela-type levels of meltdown, the GOP propaganda machine can easily convince people that the economy is doing great, and that it's doing great because of Trump.
That is so even though the most recent polls show him getting positive approval ratings on the economy. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval_economy-6182.html
Joe Trippi has a theory as to why the pols are what they are:
The reality is that much of the country has come to see Washington as a hostile, hyperpartisan, divisive place filled with bitterness and chaos — and incapable of finding common ground on things like DACA that a vast majority of Americans agree on.
A majority see the president driving this hostility, playing to it and creating much of the chaos — that is why his approval ratings are so low, given the strength of the economy.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/24/opinion/enough-trump-bashing-democrats.[WORD TOO LONG].nav=opinion-c-col-left-region