Debates Forum

Debates Forum

  1. Joined
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    17 Nov '16 13:183 edits
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/donald-trump-appears-doomed-to-inherit-the-next-recession-154621578.html

    President-elect Donald J. Trump may be the one left holding the bag when the next recession hits because of years of credit expansion.

    “He may be the unluckiest man in the world to win this job at this particular time,” Grant Williams, the author the research letter “Things That Make You Go Hmmm” and co-founder of RealVision Television, told Yahoo Finance in the video above.

    “Because, we were for a long time, 7 years, without a recession in the US,” he continued. “We are overdue one. And some of the data that’s been coming out in the last couple of quarters suggests that we are very close to one.”

    Following the 2008 financial crisis, central bankers unleashed ultra easy monetary policy. One of the efforts involved the Federal Reserve making large-scale purchases of bonds, aka quantitative easing. In the eight years since the crisis, interest rates remain at or near zero, and in some parts of the world they’re negative.

    The Fed’s policies were meant to encourage the consumer to spend and thus stimulate the economy.

    “It seems to me at the grassroots the consumer is not doing too well. As goes consumption, so goes the US economy. I think [Trump] definitely needs to be weary of this.”

    Williams told Yahoo Finance that if Trump is aggressively stimulatory and we get some reflation “maybe he can hold it off.”

    Even though Trump led the Republicans in a sweep of Congress, putting the party in control of both the House and the Senate, it will take a while for policies to materialize.

    “Even though he has control of the House, control of Congress. It takes a while to get these things through. I would be surprised if, with the exception of a few token projects, they get anything up and running until the end of 2017,” he said, adding, “Realistically, people jumping in day one to buy copper, for example, up 6% because of this is a little too premature I think there’s too much uncertainty around this to place all of your bets right now.”

    On election night, as it became clear that Trump would win, Dow Jones Industrial futures dropped 5%. Overnight, those futures roared back to finish the day up 6%. Investors seem to interpret a Trump presidency as a positive for the market.

    Williams expects that there will be volatility.

    “Any market that goes down 5% and up 6% on the same news is inherently unstable.”
  2. Behind the scenes
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    17 Nov '16 13:34
    Originally posted by whodey
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/donald-trump-appears-doomed-to-inherit-the-next-recession-154621578.html

    President-elect Donald J. Trump may be the one left holding the bag when the next recession hits because of years of credit expansion.

    “He may be the unluckiest man in the world to win this job at this particular time,” Grant Williams, the author the ...[text shortened]... volatility.

    “Any market that goes down 5% and up 6% on the same news is inherently unstable.”
    I don't think America is in a recession.
  3. Joined
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    17 Nov '16 13:411 edit
    Originally posted by mchill
    I don't think America is in a recession.
    The US has had an abysmal run of economic growth that has been under 2%. Then enter Brexit which will be felt next year.

    Call it what you will.

    Of course, there is the international criminal Soros who has crashed entire economies around the world who could possibly work some of his magic once again.
  4. Joined
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    17 Nov '16 14:40
    The Fed will soon increase interest rates as well.

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/janet-yellen-a-rate-hike-would-be-appropriate-relatively-soon-130443865.html
  5. SubscriberAThousandYoung
    iEn guardia, Ingles!
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    17 Nov '16 15:403 edits
    Originally posted by mchill
    I don't think America is in a recession.
    Not yet. Trump plans to cause one apparently.
  6. Germany
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    17 Nov '16 17:44
    There's no recession and there isn't going to be one, as Trump's team of economic experts will reach Trump's promised 4% annual growth easily. Tried-and-tested methods like import tariffs, tax cuts for the wealthy and gutting welfare measures will no doubt Make America Great Again.
  7. Joined
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    17 Nov '16 17:52
    Originally posted by whodey
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/donald-trump-appears-doomed-to-inherit-the-next-recession-154621578.html

    President-elect Donald J. Trump may be the one left holding the bag when the next recession hits because of years of credit expansion.

    “He may be the unluckiest man in the world to win this job at this particular time,” Grant Williams, the author the ...[text shortened]... volatility.

    “Any market that goes down 5% and up 6% on the same news is inherently unstable.”
    No he won't. He'll do what Reagan did and spend his way out of it while claiming it was conservative economic policies which caused the recovery.
  8. SubscriberSuzianne
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    18 Nov '16 21:52
    Originally posted by whodey
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/donald-trump-appears-doomed-to-inherit-the-next-recession-154621578.html

    President-elect Donald J. Trump may be the one left holding the bag when the next recession hits because of years of credit expansion.

    “He may be the unluckiest man in the world to win this job at this particular time,” Grant Williams, the author the ...[text shortened]... volatility.

    “Any market that goes down 5% and up 6% on the same news is inherently unstable.”
    Well, there IS a difference between "inheriting a recession" and "creating a depression".

    The first, not likely. The second, well, we'll see. We've got about 9 months to find out.

    This is just typical Republican tactic of blaming the other guy for your own faults. It will come BECAUSE of Republican policies (most likely the removal of regulations), but they'll all sit back and "blame Obama" without a shred of evidence and his supporters will buy into it hook, line and sinker, just like all the lies during his campaign. They called Reagan the "teflon-coated" president. This guy is PURE teflon.
  9. SubscriberSuzianne
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    18 Nov '16 21:53
    Originally posted by KazetNagorra
    There's no recession and there isn't going to be one, as Trump's team of economic experts will reach Trump's promised 4% annual growth easily. Tried-and-tested methods like import tariffs, tax cuts for the wealthy and gutting welfare measures will no doubt Make America Great Again.
    There's a bridge for sale that they might be interested in, also.
  10. SubscriberSuzianne
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    18 Nov '16 21:571 edit
    Originally posted by whodey
    Even though Trump led the Republicans in a sweep of Congress, putting the party in control of both the House and the Senate, it will take a while for policies to materialize.
    It only took Herbert Hoover 6 months to throw the country into a Great Depression, which was directly caused by his disastrous policies, carried out by a unified Republican Congress.
  11. Joined
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    18 Nov '16 22:12
    Originally posted by Suzianne
    It only took Herbert Hoover 6 months to throw the country into a Great Depression, which was directly caused by his disastrous policies, carried out by a unified Republican Congress.
    a recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. the us has experienced neither for a number of years
  12. Joined
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    18 Nov '16 23:17
    Originally posted by Suzianne
    Well, there IS a difference between "inheriting a recession" and "creating a depression".

    The first, not likely. The second, well, we'll see. We've got about 9 months to find out.

    This is just typical Republican tactic of blaming the other guy for your own faults. It will come BECAUSE of Republican policies (most likely the removal of regulations), ...[text shortened]... uring his campaign. They called Reagan the "teflon-coated" president. This guy is PURE teflon.
    Blaming the other guy?

    We know it was all really Bush's fault.
  13. Joined
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    18 Nov '16 23:17
    Originally posted by Suzianne
    There's a bridge for sale that they might be interested in, also.
    Trump says you can buy it for half a million. It's a deal you just can't pass up!
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