Trump Wrote the Book on Screwing Up

Interesting. So Trump is an amateur who screws up because he doesn't know how to do it. Everybody else knows how to do it. 😆

Some Americans really do not know what a moron he is. 😆

"The best, most cogent and elegantly simple explanation into the inexplicably destructive negotiating processes of the president, by Prof. David Honig of Indiana University."

“I’m going to get a little wonky and write about Donald Trump and negotiations. For those who don't know, I'm an adjunct professor at Indiana University - Robert H. McKinney School of Law and I teach negotiations. Okay, here goes.

Trump, as most of us know, is the credited author of "The Art of the Deal," a book that was actually ghost written by a man named Tony Schwartz, who was given access to Trump and wrote based upon his observations. If you've read The Art of the Deal, or if you've followed Trump lately, you'll know, even if you didn't know the label, that he sees all dealmaking as what we call "distributive bargaining."

Distributive bargaining always has a winner and a loser. It happens when there is a fixed quantity of something and two sides are fighting over how it gets distributed. Think of it as a pie and you're fighting over who gets how many pieces. In Trump's world, the bargaining was for a building, or for construction work, or subcontractors. He perceives a successful bargain as one in which there is a winner and a loser, so if he pays less than the seller wants, he wins. The more he saves the more he wins.

The other type of bargaining is called integrative bargaining. In integrative bargaining the two sides don't have a complete conflict of interest, and it is possible to reach mutually beneficial agreements. Think of it, not a single pie to be divided by two hungry people, but as a baker and a caterer negotiating over how many pies will be baked at what prices, and the nature of their ongoing relationship after this one gig is over.

The problem with Trump is that he sees only distributive bargaining in an international world that requires integrative bargaining. He can raise tariffs, but so can other countries. He can't demand they not respond. There is no defined end to the negotiation and there is no simple winner and loser. There are always more pies to be baked. Further, negotiations aren't binary. China's choices aren't (a) buy soybeans from US farmers, or (b) don't buy soybeans. They can also (c) buy soybeans from Russia, or Argentina, or Brazil, or Canada, etc. That completely strips the distributive bargainer of his power to win or lose, to control the negotiation.

One of the risks of distributive bargaining is bad will. In a one-time distributive bargain, e.g. negotiating with the cabinet maker in your casino about whether you're going to pay his whole bill or demand a discount, you don't have to worry about your ongoing credibility or the next deal. If you do that to the cabinet maker, you can bet he won't agree to do the cabinets in your next casino, and you're going to have to find another cabinet maker.

There isn't another Canada.

So when you approach international negotiation, in a world as complex as ours, with integrated economies and multiple buyers and sellers, you simply must approach them through integrative bargaining. If you attempt distributive bargaining, success is impossible. And we see that already.

Trump has raised tariffs on China. China responded, in addition to raising tariffs on US goods, by dropping all its soybean orders from the US and buying them from Russia. The effect is not only to cause tremendous harm to US farmers, but also to increase Russian revenue, making Russia less susceptible to sanctions and boycotts, increasing its economic and political power in the world, and reducing ours. Trump saw steel and aluminum and thought it would be an easy win, BECAUSE HE SAW ONLY STEEL AND ALUMINUM - HE SEES EVERY NEGOTIATION AS DISTRIBUTIVE. China saw it as integrative, and integrated Russia and its soybean purchase orders into a far more complex negotiation ecosystem.

Trump has the same weakness politically. For every winner there must be a loser. And that's just not how politics works, not over the long run.

For people who study negotiations, this is incredibly basic stuff, negotiations 101, definitions you learn before you even start talking about styles and tactics. And here's another huge problem for us.

Trump is utterly convinced that his experience in a closely held real estate company has prepared him to run a nation, and therefore he rejects the advice of people who spent entire careers studying the nuances of international negotiations and diplomacy. But the leaders on the other side of the table have not eschewed expertise, they have embraced it. And that means they look at Trump and, given his very limited tool chest and his blindly distributive understanding of negotiation, they know exactly what he is going to do and exactly how to respond to it.

From a professional negotiation point of view, Trump isn't even bringing checkers to a chess match. He's bringing a quarter that he insists of flipping for heads or tails, while everybody else is studying the chess board to decide whether its better to open with Najdorf or Grünfeld.”

— David Honig

@spruce112358

Trump is convinced he’s a genius because he’s rich. That’s literally all he’s got. A textbook case of Dunning-Kruger Effect.

@spruce112358 said
Interesting. So Trump is an amateur who screws up because he doesn't know how to do it. Everybody else knows how to do it. 😆

Some Americans really do not know what a moron he is. 😆

"The best, most cogent and elegantly simple explanation into the inexplicably destructive negotiating processes of the president, by Prof. David Honig of Indiana University."

“ ...[text shortened]... chess board to decide whether its better to open with Najdorf or Grünfeld.”

— David Honig

@moonbus said
@spruce112358

Trump is convinced he’s a genius because he’s rich. That’s literally all he’s got. A textbook case of Dunning-Kruger Effect.

@Suzianne said
What do you think motivated his more recent comments today on Gaza?

I think it is undeniable evidence that he's totally lost it.

@moonbus

Deep down, Trump is shallow.

@moonbus said
He's a real estate tycoon. He wants to develop Gaza, put up hotels on prime waterfront property. His son-in-law's on record saying so:


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/19/jared-kushner-gaza-waterfront-property-israel-negev

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/jared-kushner-israel-gaza-waterfront-property?srsltid=AfmBOoq03giBD3uO4nwNBZ6eETv7x-EptOlgb_U-rUCERcu-5 ...[text shortened]... uld stop projecting strategic moves and deeply profound plans into him. Deep down, Trump is shallow.

@Ponderable said
@moonbus

Deep down, Trump is shallow.

This nice oxymoronic quote I will hijack.

Thank you

@Rajk999 said
If he succeeds it will be the end of the war in Gaza.
Nobody cares if he is greedy, stupid, shallow, racist.
Putting an end to this conflict is the prime objective.
So far nothing has worked.
Maybe forcing the Arabs to accept developing the place, might.

@Suzianne said
What do you think motivated his more recent comments today on Gaza?

I think it is undeniable evidence that he's totally lost it.

@moonbus said
Treating the Arab - Israeli conflict like a real estate deal is the primary reason why businessmen should not be running the government. It’s not even an issue of competence or incompetence; it’s a complete lack of understanding of principles of international law.

@moonbus said
Treating the Arab - Israeli conflict like a real estate deal is the primary reason why businessmen should not be running the government. It’s not even an issue of competence or incompetence; it’s a complete lack of understanding of principles of international law.

@Rajk999 said
You can treat it any which way you want, the fact is that all attempts to end that conflict in the last 75 years, have failed, because nobody seems to understand the mindset of the Islamic extremist. Actually I believe that businessmen should in fact be running the government. Why? It is about budgeting and the proper use of scarce resources.

As for international law, Ar ...[text shortened]... ritory (Article 43 of the Hague Regulations)[/i]

Sounds like the perfect solution to the problem.

@no1marauder said
"It prohibits actions such as forced deportations, transfers, and evacuations of the local population (Article 49)"

Didn't bother to read that part, did you?

@Rajk999 said
Trump suggested that surrounding countries accept these displaced Arabs as refugees while Gaza was being rebuilt. The local population has as their core aim in life the killing of Jews. The position they are now in is their own damn fault. Serves then right.