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Debates Forum

  1. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    05 Oct '12 14:23
    http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

    Number of unemployed falls 456,000.

    Total employment rose 873,000.

    Total nonfarm payrolls went up 200,000 (114,000 in September and 86,000 from revised July and August figures).

    Average workweek up. Average hourly earnings up.


    Bad news for Mitt and the Republicans. Good news for the country.
  2. 05 Oct '12 15:01
    And so begins the chorus of "they fudged the numbers!"
  3. 05 Oct '12 15:16
    Originally posted by PsychoPawn
    And so begins the chorus of "they fudged the numbers!"
    Doesn't matter if the numbers were fudged or not, 7.8% is still way too high, and nothing to go dance in the streets over. One data point does not infer a change in trend either.
  4. 05 Oct '12 15:18
    Originally posted by CLL53
    Doesn't matter if the numbers were fudged or not, 7.8% is still way too high, and nothing to go dance in the streets over. One data point does not infer a change in trend either.
    7.8% is too high, sure.

    I also agree that one data point does not infer a change in trend


    The trend appears to be going in the right direction... here are som more data points:

    http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
  5. 05 Oct '12 15:29
    Originally posted by PsychoPawn
    7.8% is too high, sure.

    I also agree that one data point does not infer a change in trend


    The trend appears to be going in the right direction... here are som more data points:

    http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
    I think most of us would be pleased if the economy straightened out, regardless of the political consequences. Let's just hope this does indicate an easing is in the making, I am just not ready to pronounce a reversal until we see obvious indications. How we ratchet up employment without committing an inflationary faux pas may be a bit interesting to see, but that will be the follow-on story.
  6. 05 Oct '12 16:04
    When they report actual unemployment and stop dropping people who have been unemployed too long, then I'll start believing this stat. Until then, it is all smoke and mirrors. Smoke and mirrors. Democrats and Republicans. Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dumb.
  7. Subscriber kmax87
    You've got Kevin
    05 Oct '12 16:09
    Originally posted by Eladar
    When they report actual unemployment and stop dropping people who have been unemployed too long, then I'll start believing this stat. Until then, it is all smoke and mirrors. Smoke and mirrors. Democrats and Republicans. Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dumb.
    How long have they reported unemployment in the way they currently do?
  8. 05 Oct '12 16:09
    Originally posted by Eladar
    When they report actual unemployment and stop dropping people who have been unemployed too long, then I'll start believing this stat. Until then, it is all smoke and mirrors. Smoke and mirrors. Democrats and Republicans. Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dumb.
    Well, you can look at the participation rate, for example, which went up.
  9. 05 Oct '12 16:10
    Originally posted by kmax87
    How long have they reported unemployment in the way they currently do?
    Many decades. It's certainly true that the figure itself is not a good absolute measure, especially when comparing to other countries, but it tracks relative trends just fine.
  10. Subscriber kmax87
    You've got Kevin
    05 Oct '12 16:13
    Originally posted by KazetNagorra
    Many decades. It's certainly true that the figure itself is not a good absolute measure, especially when comparing to other countries, but it tracks relative trends just fine.
    Its interesting then given the long reliance on this statistic the political timing when people choose to believe its invalidity.
  11. 05 Oct '12 16:32
    Originally posted by CLL53
    Doesn't matter if the numbers were fudged or not, 7.8% is still way too high, and nothing to go dance in the streets over. One data point does not infer a change in trend either.
    But it kills the Romney narrative, and plays into the increasing sense that the economy is improving. I don't think it's a huge factor. All but a small percentage of the voters have made up their minds about what is right and wrong with the economy. But Obama will get a little bit of a boost out of this, and Romney's going to have to abandon the "___ months above 8 percent" meme.
  12. 05 Oct '12 16:33 / 2 edits
    Originally posted by PsychoPawn
    And so begins the chorus of "they fudged the numbers!"
    Enter the "jobs truther" movement. Joins the polls truther movement.

    http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/10/job-truthers-jack-welch-bls.php

    And I bet there's a private attempt within the GOP to shut this down, because all it does it give more weight to the importance of these numbers where the strategy ought to be to suggest that they really don't mean much at all.
  13. 05 Oct '12 18:33
    Originally posted by kmax87
    How long have they reported unemployment in the way they currently do?
    As far as I know, forever. As long as they have, it's been a crock.
  14. 05 Oct '12 18:35
    Originally posted by KazetNagorra
    Well, you can look at the participation rate, for example, which went up.
    Which kinds of jobs? Government jobs and temp jobs mostly from what I've seen. It was just stuff on the front page of drudge.
  15. 05 Oct '12 18:41
    Originally posted by Kunsoo
    Enter the "jobs truther" movement. Joins the polls truther movement.

    http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/10/job-truthers-jack-welch-bls.php

    And I bet there's a private attempt within the GOP to shut this down, because all it does it give more weight to the importance of these numbers where the strategy ought to be to suggest that they really don't mean much at all.
    Is there anything that you'd ever admit was damning to Obama and good for the Republicans?

    The answer of course is no, you are an Obama sunshine pumper.

    D next to a name means good and R means bad as far as you are concerned.