.... if Roe vs. Wade will be overturned ?
What will happen to the Republicans ? What will happen to the Democrats ? How will this event change the political landscape of the United States ?
This is what No1, I hope you don't mind my reposting your interesting statements, wrote in another thread about this issue:
"Approximately 20% of people who usually vote Republican identify themselves as pro-choice. Right now they can do so without any immediate ramifications on the actual status of abortion law. You will note that GW did not prominently mention outlawing abortion in his campaign.
If Roe was overturned, conservative states would start passing laws making abortion a criminal offense and imposing penalties like I outlined above. This wouldn't have much political effect in the conservative states (where voters would support them) or liberal states (where abortion bans wouldn't get passed) but it would have a big effect in the 10 or 12 swing states. Even a small shift of pro-choice Republicans away from their party because people are now actually going to prison for having an abortion would shift the political balance. And conservatives in those states would certainly propose criminal abortion laws there igniting a political firestorm there. Since the great majority of people in those states oppose making abortion illegal, these efforts would probably fail but it would stake the party to an extreme position with real consequences, not just hypothetical ones.
That's my analysis anyway, I'd be interested in hearing what others think would happen politically if Roe v. Wade was overturned."
What are your thoughts on this interesting and undoubtedly important issue regarding the future ?
Originally posted by ivanhoeThere are seriously people who would have women jailed because they had an abortion? That is the system running riot. Not constructive at all!
.... if Roe vs. Wade will be overturned ?
What will happen to the Republicans ? What will happen to the Democrats ? How will this event change the political landscape of the United States ?
This is what No1, I hope you don't mind my reposting your interesting statements, wrote in another thread about this issue:
"Approximately 20% of people who u ...[text shortened]... hat are your thoughts on this interesting and undoubtedly important issue regarding the future ?
But to answer your question:
As far as I'm able to tell the religious right in the US has been mobilised since the first election of Raygun. They tend to favour the Republicans because of their conservative views on religion. I presume that abortion is only one of the issues.
I was watching a debate on television a year or so ago and it was creationists vs. evolutionists. The creationists did not seem open to argument, as everything they needed to know came from the bible. Abortion wasn't mentioned, but I got the distinct impression they were all republican voters.
And to conclude: I don't think this Roe vs. Wade (whatever that's supposed to mean) is going to upset the balance of power at all.
Originally posted by shavixmirShavix: "... Roe vs. Wade (whatever that's supposed to mean) ... "
There are seriously people who would have women jailed because they had an abortion? That is the system running riot. Not constructive at all!
But to answer your question:
As far as I'm able to tell the religious right in the US has ...[text shortened]... supposed to mean) is going to upset the balance of power at all.
What is Roe vs Wade ?
" Roe v. Wade, 410 U.S. 113 (1973) was the landmark United States Supreme Court decision that recognized abortion as a constitutional right, overturning several state laws against abortion. It remains one of the most controversial decisions in Supreme Court history."
If you are interested you can read lots more at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade
Originally posted by ivanhoeThe statement quoted above is not an accurate rendering of the holding in Roe v. Wade. The Court did not "recognize abortion as a constitutional right" but to be precise they concluded "that the right to personal privacy includes the abortion decision". Privacy rights are not unqualified but regulations limiting a "fundamental" right such as privacy may be justified only by a "compelling state interest" and that legislative enactments must be narrowly drawn to express only the legitimate state interests at stake. Criminal abortion laws were held to be unconstitutional, but reasonable regulations of the medical procedure of abortion are allowed. And the Court held that states could ban abortions after the fetus was viable (though they need not as a fetus is not a person under the US Constitution). To my knowledge, all states have so abortion is not an unqualified right as antiabortionists often assert ("abortion on demand"😉.
Shavix: "... Roe vs. Wade (whatever that's supposed to mean) ... "
What is Roe vs Wade ?
" Roe v. Wade, 410 U.S. 113 (1973) was the landmark United States Supreme Court decision that recognized abortion as a constitutional right, overturning several state laws against abortion. It remains one of the most controversial decisions in Supreme Court hi ...[text shortened]... If you are interested you can read lots more at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade
I stand by my analysis above, but wish to make clear that I don't believe that Roe will be overturned in the forseeable future. Roe is solidly grounded in prior case law regarding privacy rights, particulary those regarding procreation. The landmark case was not Roe, but Griswold v. Connecticut, which struck down a state criminal law banning the sale of contraceptives. If Roe was overturned, logically Griswold and many other privacy right decisions would have to go as well and I doubt the Court will go that far. I also highly doubt that an extreme conservative judge like a Scalia would be confirmed by the Senate to replace one of the judges who oppose the overturning of Roe.
Originally posted by ivanhoeWould states be able to ban their residents from getting abortions in other states? If not (as I suspect - I think the 14th Amendment might be relevant, but I'd have to consult a lawyer), people would just cross into a pro-choice state to have abortions and then come home. Look at what happens in Ireland.
.... if Roe vs. Wade will be overturned ?
What will happen to the Republicans ? What will happen to the Democrats ? How will this event change the political landscape of the United States ?
This is what No1, I hope you don't mind my reposting your interesting statements, wrote in another thread about this issue:
"Approximately 20% of people who u ...[text shortened]... hat are your thoughts on this interesting and undoubtedly important issue regarding the future ?
Nevertheless, I can see many people getting extremely upset, whatever happened. Even with Roe vs Wade in place, there are extremist groups in America running terror campaigns against abortion doctors, clinics and women who have abortions, in some cases even murdering doctors who carry out abortions. There wouldn't be such obvious targets for extremist pro-choicers (and maybe the pro-choice lobby is less inclined to extremism) but there would certainly be large-scale protests against any strict anti-abortion laws, even in 'conservative' states where they couldn't hope to change the outcome of elections (actually, no state in America is 100% or even 90% liberal or conservative, so there would always be a significant minority who disagreed).
Unfortunately, there is no complete solution, because both sides of the abortion argument in the US are framed in terms of incompatible ideologies, so that each side brands the other as oppressive or evil. There will always be some people who are bitterly opposed to whatever policy the government comes up with, even one decided upon by a popular vote.
I really have no direct knowledge of this, and forgive me if I manage to get things backwards, but it seems to me that the original statement is suggesting that because 20% of Republicans are pro-choice that they might lose many votes to the Democrats if they outlawed abortion. However, couldn't it be very easily true that an equal number of Democrats might be anti abortion, and a hard stance by the Republicans might swing them away from the democrats?
Originally posted by shavixmirYour analysis is correct, except for the origins of religious right mobilization. They mobilized for AuH2O in '64. The New Right in Amerika was the 1960s movement that prevailed. Raygun's election was the beginning of a generation or more of complete control of the Amerikan political debate.
But to answer your question:
As far as I'm able to tell the religious right in the US has been mobilised since the first election of Raygun. They tend to favour the Republicans because of their conservative views on religion. I presume that abortion is only one of the issues.
See Before the Storm by Rick Perlstein for the most incisive historical analysis of American politics that has been published in the past decade.