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Debates Forum

  1. 28 Feb '11 17:52
    reinsurance premiums!

    Unscientific hype about the flooding risks from climate change will cost us all dear

    The warmists have sound financial grounds for hyping the dangers of flooding posed by climate change, writes Christopher Booker

    By Christopher Booker 7:15PM GMT 26 Feb 2011

    As the great global warming scare continues to crumble, attention focuses on all those groups that have a huge interest in keeping it alive. Governments look on it as an excuse to raise billions of pounds in taxes. Wind farm developers make fortunes from the hidden subsidies we pay through our electricity bills. A vast academic industry receives more billions for concocting the bogus science that underpins the scare. Carbon traders hope to make billions from corrupt schemes based on buying and selling the right to emit CO2. But no financial interest stands to make more from exaggerating the risks of climate change than the re-insurance industry, which charges retail insurers for “catastrophe cover”, paid for by all of us through our premiums.


    In October 2005, in the wake of the Hurricane Katrina disaster, RMS held a meeting in Bermuda with four hurricane specialists, all of the alarmist persuasion, to quiz them as to how they thought hurricane activity was likely to be affected between 2006 and 2010, thanks to climate change, and how this would impact on the southern United States, notably Florida. On the basis of this meeting, RMS advised the re-insurers that the risk of hurricane damage over the next four years was hugely increased. The companies found that their reserves were $82 billion short of what they might be expected to pay. Premiums, particularly in Florida, accordingly rocketed upwards.

    Under the heading “The $82 billion prediction”, the details of this episode are chronicled on his blog by Dr Roger Pielke Jr, who in 2008 advised RMS that the methodology on which it relied was so biased that “a group of monkeys would have arrived at the exact same results”. Dr Pielke, an expert in environmental impacts, recently published a chart showing how, although the RMS prediction for hurricane damage between 2006 and 2010 was a third higher than the historical average, the actual cost proved to be well under half the average figure. But, thanks to RMS, the insurance industry had made billions from higher premiums.

    In 2008, following the disastrous floods of summer 2007, that vociferous climate alarmist Bob Ward, now at the Grantham Institute but then a director of RMS, called for the British government to work more closely with the insurance industry “to devise mutually beneficial strategies for dealing with flood risks”. We understand how working with RMS might be beneficial to the insurance industry. But whether, in light of the Nature study, the Government would find it beneficial is another matter – never mind the rest of us, as we are asked to pay ever higher insurance premiums, based not least on the findings of those RMS computer models.

  2. 28 Feb '11 17:53

    An insight into this was given by a paper published by Nature on February 17, which claimed to show for the first time how man-made climate change greatly increases the risk of flood damage. Among the eight authors of the paper are two of the most influential scientists at the heart of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Prof Peter Stott of the UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre and Dr Myles Allen, head of Oxford’s Climate Dynamics Group. Two of their co-authors are from Risk Management Solutions (RMS), a California-based firm which is the world leader in advising the insurance industry on climate change.


    But, thanks to RMS, the insurance industry had made billions from higher premiums.

  3. 28 Feb '11 17:56

    RMS Expertise

    RMS brings together a unique, multidisciplinary team of experts to create solutions for its clients’ natural hazard and financial risk management challenges. We are the technical leader in our market, with over 120 engineers and scientists devoted to the development of risk models. Of this number, approximately fifty percent hold advanced degrees in their field of expertise.

    Our specialists track and perform research with leading experts and academic institutions worldwide, and supplement this knowledge with internal R&D to ensure that our models provide the most complete and accurate quantification of risk.

    For more information on RMS Research

    To ensure that clients obtain maximum benefit from our modeling solutions, we maintain a network of approximately 80 client service representatives in offices worldwide.

    Our professional staff includes individuals with expertise in all disciplines and industries relevant to natural and man-made hazard risk management, including:

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  4. 28 Feb '11 17:57
  5. 28 Feb '11 18:00
    What is a device used to convey information over long distances in the 1800's?