General Forum

General Forum

  1. Joined
    13 Apr '12
    Moves
    8179
    16 Jun '14 15:26
    Come on then guys. Going on my own knowledge the bookies have given me a tanning in the first round of games. I had an idea a few seasons ago (based on a book that impressed me) that peoples combined knowledge might beat the bookies, and it made consistent small returns. I'd like to try it for the second load of games and try and make my money back.

    All I do is collate your collective opinions, and compare them to the bookies prices. And put the money on the results where our opinion suggests the bookie has his odds wrong.

    If the theory is correct then it's important that all your opinions are independent. So please give your opinion before reading other peoples opinion in this thread.

    Just click reply to and then split 10 points between the three possible results win / draw / win based on how likely you think the result is to happen.

    For example Cardiff vs Swansea 10 / 0 / 0 Ayatollah

    Brazil v Mexico
    Australia v Holland
    Spain v Chile
    Cameroon v Croatia
    Colombia v Ivory Coast
    Uruguay v England
    Japan v Greece
    Italy v Costa Rica
    Switzerland v France
    Honduras v Ecuador
    Argentina v Iran
    Germany v Ghana
    Nigeria v Bosnia
    USA vs Portugal
    Belgium v Russia
    South Korea v Algeria

    I'll work them out vs the bookies odds tomorrow afternoon before the Brazil game and post the tips here at say 5pm. The more that reply the better the tips should be.
  2. Joined
    10 Jan '08
    Moves
    10323
    16 Jun '14 20:11
    Brazil v Mexico 7-3-0
    Australia v Holland 0-0-10
    Spain v Chile 3-4-3
    Cameroon v Croatia 0-0-10
    Colombia v Ivory Coast 7-3-0
    Uruguay v England 2-6-2
    Japan v Greece 2-6-2
    Italy v Costa Rica 8-2-0
    Switzerland v France 1-6-3
    Honduras v Ecuador 0-5-5
    Argentina v Iran 10-0-0
    Germany v Ghana 10-0-0
    Nigeria v Bosnia 2-4-4
    USA vs Portugal 0-1-9
    Belgium v Russia 5-5-0
    South Korea v Algeria 10-0-0
  3. Joined
    13 Apr '12
    Moves
    8179
    16 Jun '14 20:49
    Thanks Trev. Right, anybody else has about an hour to contribute. Then I'm going to do the sums as I've had lots of input from elsewhere and I want to get it done before work tomorrow to allow myself time tog et the bets on :d
  4. SubscriberPonderable
    chemist
    Linkenheim
    Joined
    22 Apr '05
    Moves
    526328
    16 Jun '14 21:10
    Brazil v Mexico 7-2-1
    Australia v Holland 0-1-9
    Spain v Chile 4-3-3
    Cameroon v Croatia 1-3-6
    Colombia v Ivory Coast 7-2-1
    Uruguay v England 3-5-2
    Japan v Greece 4-4-2
    Italy v Costa Rica 6-2-2
    Switzerland v France 3-4-3
    Honduras v Ecuador 1-2-7
    Argentina v Iran 7-2-1
    Germany v Ghana 6-3-1
    Nigeria v Bosnia 5-3-2
    USA vs Portugal 2-2-6
    Belgium v Russia 3-4-3
    South Korea v Algeria 5-2-3
  5. Joined
    10 Jan '08
    Moves
    10323
    16 Jun '14 21:22
    Originally posted by Ponderable

    Argentina v Iran 7-2-1
    Germany v Ghana 6-3-1
    If Iran or Ghana beat Argentina or Germany I'll fly over to Germany and be your personal slave.
  6. Standard memberChessPraxis
    Cowboy From Hell
    American West
    Joined
    19 Apr '10
    Moves
    55013
    17 Jun '14 03:26
    Great, we now have gambling, all we need now is prostitution, drugs and moonshine.
    Christ on a crutch
  7. Joined
    13 Apr '12
    Moves
    8179
    17 Jun '14 05:53
    Here are the tips as of the opinions I've canvassed vs the opinion of the bookie. The important thing to note is that I'm not saying all these results are likely, I'm saying the bookies price is too generous compared with what we think will happen. So whilst our opinion is still that Spain will beat Chile, we think Chile are much more likely to win than their price suggests, and if our opinion of the odds is correct then if we were to make the bet 10 or 100 times that we would end up ahead. For that reason, I wouldn't include all of them in an accumulator.

    For my accumulator I've only included results that we suggest are both likely to happen (more than 50😵 and are undervalued by the bookie. The 3 in my accumulator are in bold below and only pay roughly 2/1

    There isn't a tip for every game, as it's difficult to find value that beats the bookies profit margin, the bookie sets the odds equvalent to every result adding up to somewhere between 105% and 115% - thats his profit margin. So he's gotta be quite a way out for a price to look good.


    Here are the returns for a £1 bet. As it's only an experiment I'm just putting a quid on them all.

    Holland 2/9
    Australia v Holland
    Estimated Return:£1.22


    Chile 4/1
    Spain v Chile
    Return:£5.00

    Draw 9/4
    Uruguay v England
    Return:£3.25

    Argentina 1/7
    Argentina v Iran
    Return:£1.14


    South Korea 6/5
    South Korea v Algeria

    Estimated Return:£2.20

    Draw 11/5
    Belgium v Russia
    Return:£3.20


    The other results that showed better than bookie odds but only marginally were Brazil Mexico the draw, Colombia to beat Ivory Coast, Japan Greece the draw, Switzerland to beat France, Honduras Ecuador the draw and Portugal to beat the USA. The Portugal result was also 64% likelyhood in our opinion, so you could add that to your acca as well. But all these are by a much smaller margin and probably not worth the gamble.

    Oh and the price most undervalued in our opinion is South Korea to beat Algeria,. So if you only have one bet, have that one.
  8. Standard memberGrampy Bobby
    Boston Lad
    USA
    Joined
    14 Jul '07
    Moves
    43012
    17 Jun '14 08:491 edit
    "Ghana 1, USA 2: 2014 FIFA World Cup | Group G Match"

    "Man of the Match: Jermaine Jones (and Kyle Beckerman); Andre Ayew newest American hero..." Recap Video.

    http://www.mlssoccer.com/worldcup/2014/news/article/2014/06/16/ghana-1-usa-2-2014-fifa-world-cup-group-g-match-recap

    Dewi, thought this recap video might be of interest.
  9. SubscriberPonderable
    chemist
    Linkenheim
    Joined
    22 Apr '05
    Moves
    526328
    17 Jun '14 10:15
    Originally posted by Trev33
    If Iran or Ghana beat Argentina or Germany I'll fly over to Germany and be your personal slave.
    So I have to call Jogi and tell him so...there is always a (whatever slim) chance....when I saw your post first I thought I got it backwards 🙂
  10. Joined
    10 Jan '08
    Moves
    10323
    18 Jun '14 23:04
    Originally posted by Dewi Jones
    Here are the tips as of the opinions I've canvassed vs the opinion of the bookie. The important thing to note is that I'm not saying all these results are likely, I'm saying the bookies price is too generous compared with what we think will happen. So whilst our opinion is still that Spain will beat Chile, we think Chile are much more likely to win than t ...[text shortened]... lued in our opinion is South Korea to beat Algeria,. So if you only have one bet, have that one.
    Looking good so far. I got Chile at 9/2 btw.
  11. Joined
    13 Apr '12
    Moves
    8179
    19 Jun '14 12:27
    Yes. So far so good. Most of the bets were available at better odds later on. South Korea being the main one. I just panicked when I saw the Argentina price moving. Shoulda waited another 24 hours.
Back to Top