Disparity between White and Black

Originally posted by greenpawn34
Hi Kingshill.

I think I would expect that type of result.
Games on the DB are between players from tournaments and between 1800-2000
they have had some experience.

On RHP the 1400 DB. (I have 1,218,218 games) The bland scores are:

White wins = 52% Black wins =48%

I like the idea of breaking into 1.e4 and 1.d4

1.e4 White wins 51% Black wi ...[text shortened]... ne could argue that the Black players on the 1400 DP tend to develop their Black rep first.

I would like to see how the QID does... any what the sample size is from those players. I would think d4 e6 c4 b6 is probably not played often... but it'd be interesting to see how those daring few fair.

Q

Originally posted by nimzo5
A detail I would like to see is performance rating. Without that, the win-loss stats are meaningless.

Games from Megabase 2012 (Few million games)

Players 2300+ (938809 games)

e4 54.3% (ELO performance +37)
d4 55.7% (ELO Performance +35)
Nf3 54.6% (ELO Performance +30)
c4 55.6% (ELO Performance +30)

Therefore at top level playing white gives about 30+ grading boost

Players 2000+ (2.3M games)

e4 53.6% (ELO performance +31)
d4 55.2% (ELO Performance +30)
Nf3 55.4% (ELO Performance +24)
c4 54.8% (ELO Performance +32)

Therefore at top level playing white gives about 30 grading boost

Players 1800-2000 (100K games)

e4 53.9% (ELO performance +28)
d4 53.0% (ELO Performance +21)
Nf3 52.8% (ELO Performance +19)
c4 53.8% (ELO Performance +22)

Therefore, having the first move is more important to stronger players although even for the weaker players there is an advantage to moving first

Originally posted by PhySiQ
I would like to see how the QID does... any what the sample size is from those players. I would think d4 e6 c4 b6 is probably not played often... but it'd be interesting to see how those daring few fair.

Q

I personally have trouble with the Owens/English defence

There are 3737 games in Mega 2012 with d4 e6 c4 b6.

Black scores 48.7% with and ELO of -31 which is pretty par for the course

Originally posted by kingshill
I personally have trouble with the Owens/English defence

There are 3737 games in Mega 2012 with d4 e6 c4 b6.

Black scores 48.7% with and ELO of -31 which is pretty par for the course

I always thought it was the Keres defense. Who knows. In my mind its all just part of the Queens Indian. Openings these days have too many names. These things are just too ridiculous to follow.

Q

Originally posted by PhySiQ
I always thought it was the Keres defense. Who knows. In my mind its all just part of the Queens Indian. Openings these days have too many names. These things are just too ridiculous to follow.

Q

A queens Indian would be

1. d4 Nf6
2. c4 e6
3. Nf3 b6 = Queens Indian

Originally posted by kingshill
Games from Megabase 2012 (Few million games)

Players 2300+ (938809 games)

e4 54.3% (ELO performance +37)
d4 55.7% (ELO Performance +35)
Nf3 54.6% (ELO Performance +30)
c4 55.6% (ELO Performance +30)

Therefore at top level playing white gives about 30+ grading boost

Players 2000+ (2.3M games)

e4 53.6% (ELO performan ...[text shortened]... t to stronger players although even for the weaker players there is an advantage to moving first

Thanks for taking the time to check this- I think it supports your argument that there is still some advantage to White at the club level.

That being said I score 10% better with Black OTB. Probably because I play a show me what you got attitude with White. 🙂

I agree with Kingshill figures and I'd like to thank the current No1. player
for taking the time to join in and for the effort he has put in.

(we can discuss your profile rant another day...I'll just add you knew what
the time scales when you entered.) 😉

We are posting different stats from different DB's so our figures will not match.
I am using the million games from 1400 DB. Kingshill Megabase and 1800-2000 games.

1800 - 2000 FIDE rated players are not beginners.
They have some games under their belt. When you are 1800 OTB you are
starting to sort yourself out opening wise.

The OP's current grade is 1600. The average grade on here is 1350.

To show the main difference I put this position into the RHP DB. (1,218,218 games)


And asked it to find White Checkmates under 7 moves.
It found 289 from 1 million games.

I ran the same criteria through my Megadatabase (4,277,107 games)
It found just 172 from 4 million games. (someone do the maths).

The majority from the Megabase appeared from 1992 onwards when
Megabase started adding games from under 10 and under 8 tournaments.

(The CHESSBORG...sorry CHESSBASE plan being by adding more games the
more people will buy the CD. It's always about the money.)

Of course the other main difference is that Megabase is OTB and here it is
mostly home and casual players playing 40+ games at the same time.
Even so it does indicate that a small amount of book knowledge is playing it's part.
(greenpawn stating the bleeding obivious.)

The numbers from my previous post show that Black scores better than White
when Black adopts a opening other than the natural 1...e5 and follows some
kind of game plan. A bit of opening theory.

I know of only one opening where within 3 moves you could put money on a
player being booked up.
The Tarrasch Variation of the French.

1.e4 e6 2.d4 d5


The most natural move to any beginner here is 3.e5 3.exd5 3.Nf3. 3.Nc3. 3.Bd3.3.f3

Now look at 3.Nd2.


You just know that the White player has looked at this. It so odd it's obvioulsy book.
White has got that move from somewhere. It's not random.

I'll give again the stats for the French on RHP. White wins 49% Black wins 51%
However from the above position with White playing 3.Nd2 the score is.

White wins 58% Black 42% that is a huge jump to White and clearly indicates
that a little book knowledge at the lower levels is reaping dividends.

I used that 3.Nd7 example to show that the stats favouring Black were not a
fluke. There is book knowledge surfacing. And I'd say down in the 1400's
that the lads are booking up their Black's first. (3.Nd2 is an obvious exception.)
In my Megabase Black is not scoring better than White with the French, Kann or Sicilian. On RHP it does.

Right I'm off to study 3.Nd2 v The French. It's the future.

I never expected my post to generate so many responses, including some from the top player on the site!

I analyzed the results of every rated game I played in 2011 and 2012 with anyone who was within 400 points of my rating. The results are striking:

White
Score: 7.5/13
Rating Performance: 2009

Black
Score: 3.5/10
Rating Performance: 1661

Aggregating these two (obviously weighting for the number of games played) gives a rating performance of 1859, which make sense seeing as my rating has pretty much hovered in that range. So my theory was correct-- I'm already playing at expert level with white, so I really need to focus on studying openings as black and improving my psychological reaction to uncomfortable positions. For instance, even just bringing up my rating performance as black up to 1850, my current rating level, would have given me an overall rating performance of 1940.

Perhaps you have convinced yourself you will play badly as Black.

or...

Everyone else you are playing has the same Naff as Black problem as you.

Of course it is not going to help your Black score if you resign as you
did as Black in this position.


Game 7675344

Watch game 9079971

My first time trying my best to win.

And you won! Game 9079971

(You can mate in two on your 24th move.)