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ZB

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How does RHP determine if someone is using one?

S

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Top 3 match-up is one method.
There's nothing to stop you doing some high quality analysis yourself if you like.
Here's a guide:
Thread 114715

greenpawn34

e4

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I was once told that if you see a wee grean light next to someone's
name then that means the RHP 'Spy System' has detected an engine
is in use.

G

Lagos

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Hmmm.... Engineers

a
Frustrate the Bad

Liverpool

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Originally posted by Squelchbelch
Top 3 match-up is one method
I have my doubts about this method - although no proposals for a better one. I'm not a statistician so bear with me.

First, if someone is using an engine, why would they not have a near perfect 'top 1' match-up? In other words, why would a committed engine-user select from 'top 3' when 'top 1' is available? OK, maybe some match-ups indicate this very thing. But I guess generally, the match-ups correlate with 'top 3'.

Second, assume a strong (2100+) player. In most positions beyond the opening, I'd have thought there would be only about three positionally credible/consistent choices; in many positions, less. Moreover, 'top 3' can cover a wide range of moves measured in centi-pawns. For example: 'top 1 (0.69), 'top 2' (0.73), 'top 3' (1.54). A strong player would pick from two even if not using an engine.

Third, and this is my real concern about the methodology, a strong player could achieve a high match-up (say 90% ), yet be far from an engine-user. For example, assume the following 'match-up' sequence in a post-database game - 1,1,2,2,2,1, X, 2,3,1,1,2,3,1,1, X, 1,1,2,3 - where 'X' = 'not top 3'. The match-up is 90%. But the two 'X' moves are hugely significant because each represents a departure from the engine's preferred strategy, leading to a new kind of position selected by the player not by the engine. I contend therefore that the overall match-up of 90% is misleading because it subsumes fundamental player-inspired changes of direction in the game.

I haven't dealt with the obvious problem, well-known to the mods I imagine, that different engines give different results. And I take on trust the assumption that, if patterns are repeated over a large number of games, that's sufficient evidence.

Personally, I file away likely engine-users using the following criteria :

* current performance rating significantly ahead of earlier performance rating with evidence of sudden marked 'improvement'. That is, if a player was rated 1700 for weeks, losing to similar, but now rolls over 2100+ players for a rating of 2200, I suspect this player is not from Planet Earth

* graph resembles a 'stairway to heaven', ever upwards

* in play, relentless accuracy; or strategic consistency at variance with players of a similar rating.

* ....and if no profile, and no subscription, I have all the evidence I need 😀

S

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Originally posted by atticus2
I have my doubts about this method - although no proposals for a better one. I'm not a statistician so bear with me.

First, if someone is using an engine, why would they not have a near perfect 'top 1' match-up? In other words, why would a committed engine-user select from 'top 3' when 'top 1' is available? OK, maybe some match-ups indicate this very thi profile, and no subscription, I have all the evidence I need 😀
You'd no doubt be surprised to learn about the following top 3 matchup rates for these top players then, once the games go out of the 4.3 million game chessbase db (20+ non-database moves in each game):

Thread 116443
Kramnik-Topalov 2006

Kramnik
Top 1 Match: 306/552 (55,4% )
Top 2 Match: 417/552 (75,5% )
Top 3 Match: 461/552 (83,5% )

Topalov
Top 1 Match: 309/555 (55,7% )
Top 2 Match: 417/555 (75,1% )
Top 3 Match: 447/555 (80,5% )

Thread 114903
Capablanca-Alekhine 1927

Alekhine
Top 1 Match: 467/852 (54,8% )
Top 2 Match: 622/852 (73,0% )
Top 3 Match: 685/852 (80,4% )

Capablanca
Top 1 Match: 470/853 (55,1% )
Top 2 Match: 632/853 (74,1% )
Top 3 Match: 703/853 (82,4% )

Thread 106405
Fischer-Spassky 1972

Fischer
Top 1 Match: 385/658 (58,5% )
Top 2 Match: 509/658 (77,4% )
Top 3 Match: 563/658 (85,6% )

Spassky
Top 1 Match: 368/657 (56,0% )
Top 2 Match: 461/657 (70,2% )
Top 3 Match: 525/657 (79,9% )

Thread 115795
7th Correspondence Chess World Championships 1972-75
Top 3 finishers

1st place
Estrin (9 games)
Top 1 Match: 153/256 (59,8% )
Top 2 Match: 191/256 (74,6% )
Top 3 Match: 209/256 (81,6% )

2nd place
Boey (13 games)
Top 1 Match: 268/449 (59,7% )
Top 2 Match: 342/449 (76,2% )
Top 3 Match: 376/449 (83,7% )

3rd place
Zagorovsky V (10 games)
Top 1 Match: 153/252 (60,7% )
Top 2 Match: 190/252 (75,4% )
Top 3 Match: 208/252 (82,5% )

I can assure you that if you use the same criteria for games selection as in my link in my post above, you will find that top 3 matchup is a very good way of finding blatant engine users.

S

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It doesn't take a genius to see that no player could get average results in many games with 20 non-database moves of
top 1 match = 60%
top 2 match = 75%
top 3 match = 85%
(all 3 figures)

so ask yourself what good reason is there that a player should play so much more like an engine than this unless they aren't using one?

a
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Liverpool

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Originally posted by Squelchbelch
It doesn't take a genius to see that no player could get average results in many games with 20 non-database moves of
top 1 match = 60%
top 2 match = 75%
top 3 match = 85%
(all 3 figures)

so ask yourself what good reason is there that a player should play so much more like an engine than this unless they aren't using one?
OK, argument accepted in respect at least of my first point. Since these are the match-ups of the very best players known not to be using an engine, they can reliably be used as a platform for far less able players.

But my third point still stands for the moment. Answering it myself, perhaps it might have force in a given game, but is unlikely to hold up over a sufficiently large series

aw
Baby Gauss

Ceres

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Originally posted by atticus2
First, if someone is using an engine, why would they not have a near perfect 'top 1' match-up? In other words, why would a committed engine-user select from 'top 3' when 'top 1' is available? OK, maybe some match-ups indicate this very thing. But I guess generally, the match-ups correlate with 'top 3'.
Two main motives:

1 - The engine you are analyzing the games with might not be the same one the cheater using
2- even if it happens to be the same one has to take into account hardware differences cause they do affect the way an engine evaluates one given position.

S

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I have been told that my matchup rates correspond closely with what Games Moderators here have found.
I know for a fact that they have also used Shredder & Rybka in analysis.
That tends to suggest that whilst there are indeed differences between engines (& the systems they are used on) any of these 3000 ELO or thereabouts rated programs on a reasonably strong pc looking at many games over time will generate very similar results.

S

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Originally posted by atticus2
...But my third point still stands for the moment. Answering it myself, perhaps it might have force in a given game, but is unlikely to hold up over a sufficiently large series
Yes - you just answered it yourself.

The averages must be in many non-database moves (20+ games) and if you look at any of the game-by-game annotated PGN's in the post above you'll see that often players get very high matchup rates for individual games, but also some much lower ones too.

The blatant engine users that top 3 matchup is good for detecting rarely dip as low as matchups found in many of those GM/pre-computer era CC Master's games.
For example:

[Event "W-ch7 corr7278"]
[Site "ICCF corr"]
[Date "1972.??.??"]
[Round "?"]
[White "Estrin, Yakov Borisovich"]
[Black "Letic, Stevan"]
[Result "1-0"]
[ECO "B41"]
[PlyCount "69"]
[EventDate "1972.??.??"]

1. e4 c5 2. Nf3 e6 3. d4 cxd4 4. Nxd4 a6 5. c4 Nf6 6. Nc3 Bb4 7. Bd3 Nc6 8.
Nxc6 dxc6 9. e5 Nd7 10. f4 b5 11. Be3 {Takes game out of book; 2nd} Bb7 {
Not in top 3} 12. Qe2 {Not in top 3} Qc7 {Not in top 3} 13. Rc1 {Not in top 3}
O-O {2nd} 14. O-O {2nd} Bxc3 {3rd} 15. Rxc3 {1st} b4 {2nd} 16. Rcc1 {2nd} c5 {
1st} 17. Qc2 {Not in top 3} h6 {3rd} 18. Qf2 {Not in top 3} a5 {Not in top 3}
19. Rcd1 {1st} Ra6 {Not in top 3} 20. Bb1 {Not in top 3} f6 {2nd} 21. Qc2 {
Not in top 3} f5 {1st} 22. Qf2 {2nd} Rf7 {1st} 23. h3 {Not in top 3} a4 {3rd}
24. Rd2 {1st} b3 {2nd} 25. a3 {1st} Nb6 {2nd} 26. Bd3 {1st} Ra5 {Not in top 3}
27. Be2 {3rd} Bc8 {Not in top 3} 28. Rd6 {2nd} Bd7 {1st} 29. Rfd1 {1st} g6 {2nd
} 30. Kh2 {Not in top 3} Kg7 {Not in top 3} 31. g4 {Not in top 3} fxg4 {1st}
32. Qh4 {1st} Nc8 {Not in top 3} 33. f5 {1st} g3+ {Not in top 3} 34. Qxg3 {1st}
g5 {3rd} 35. fxe6 {2nd} 1-0

Result:
White: Estrin
Top 1 Match: 9/25 (36,0% )
Top 2 Match: 15/25 (60,0% )
Top 3 Match: 16/25 (64,0% )

Black: Letic
Top 1 Match: 5/24 (20,8% )
Top 2 Match: 11/24 (45,8% )
Top 3 Match: 15/24 (62,5% )

or

[Event "World Championship 28th"]
[Site "Reykjavik"]
[Date "1972.07.11"]
[Round "16"]
[White "Fischer, Robert James"]
[Black "Spassky, Boris V"]
[Result "1/2"]
[ECO "C69"]
[PlyCount "120"]
[EventDate "1972.??.??"]

1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bb5 a6 4. Bxc6 dxc6 5. O-O f6 6. d4 Bg4 7. dxe5 Qxd1 8.
Rxd1 fxe5 9. Rd3 Bd6 10. Nbd2 Nf6 11. Nc4 Nxe4 12. Ncxe5 {
Takes game out of book; 3rd choice} Bxf3 {1st choice} 13. Nxf3 {1st choice} O-O
{1st choice} 14. Be3 {1st choice} b5 {Not in top 3} 15. c4 {Not in top 3} Rab8
{2nd choice} 16. Rc1 {Not in top 3} bxc4 {1st choice} 17. Rd4 {2nd choice} Rfe8
{1st choice} 18. Nd2 {1st choice} Nxd2 {1st choice} 19. Rxd2 {1st choice} Re4 {
1st choice} 20. g3 {2nd choice} Be5 {1st choice} 21. Rcc2 {1st choice} Kf7 {
1st choice} 22. Kg2 {2nd choice} Rxb2 {1st choice} 23. Kf3 {1st choice} c3 {
2nd choice} 24. Kxe4 {1st choice} cxd2 {1st choice} 25. Rxd2 {1st choice} Rb5 {
3rd choice} 26. Rc2 {1st choice} Bd6 {1st choice} 27. Rxc6 {1st choice} Ra5 {
3rd choice} 28. Bf4 {3rd choice} Ra4+ {2nd choice} 29. Kf3 {1st choice} Ra3+ {
1st choice} 30. Ke4 {3rd choice} Rxa2 {1st choice} 31. Bxd6 {2nd choice} cxd6 {
1st choice} 32. Rxd6 {3rd choice} Rxf2 {1st choice} 33. Rxa6 {3rd choice} Rxh2
{1st choice} 34. Kf3 {2nd choice} Rd2 {1st choice} 35. Ra7+ {Not in top 3} Kf6
{1st choice} 36. Ra6+ {Not in top 3} Ke7 {1st choice} 37. Ra7+ {3rd choice} Rd7
{1st choice} 38. Ra2 {1st choice} Ke6 {3rd choice} 39. Kg2 {Not in top 3} Re7 {
Not in top 3} 40. Kh3 {Not in top 3} Kf6 {1st choice} 41. Ra6+ {3rd choice} Re6
{1st choice} 42. Ra5 {Not in top 3} h6 {Not in top 3} 43. Ra2 {Not in top 3}
Kf5 {Not in top 3} 44. Rf2+ {Not in top 3} Kg5 {1st choice} 45. Rf7 {1st choice
} g6 {1st choice} 46. Rf4 {Not in top 3} h5 {1st choice} 47. Rf3 {Not in top 3}
Rf6 {Not in top 3} 48. Ra3 {1st choice} Re6 {Not in top 3} 49. Rf3 {1st choice}
Re4 {1st choice} 50. Ra3 {Not in top 2} Kh6 {Not in top 3} 51. Ra6 {
Not in top 3} Re5 {Not in top 3} 52. Kh4 {1st choice} Re4+ {Not in top 3} 53.
Kh3 {1st choice} Re7 {Not in top 3} 54. Kh4 {1st choice} Re5 {Not in top 3} 55.
Rb6 {Not in top 3} Kg7 {Not in top 3} 56. Rb4 {2nd choice} Kh6 {Not in top 3}
57. Rb6 {1st choice} Re1 {2nd choice} 58. Kh3 {1st choice} Rh1+ {Not in top 3}
59. Kg2 {Only move} Ra1 {3rd choice} 60. Kh3 {Not in top 3} Ra4 {Not in top 3}
1/2

Result:
White: Fischer
Top 1 Match: 20/49 (40,8% )
Top 2 Match: 26/49 (53,1% )
Top 3 Match: 33/49 (67,3% )

Black: Spassky
Top 1 Match: 26/49 (53,1% )
Top 2 Match: 30/49 (61,2% )
Top 3 Match: 34/49 (69,4% )

FL

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I feel proud and a little bit humble to be part of a site where the top players regularly outperform Kramnik, Topov, Alekhine, Capablanca, Fischer, Spassky and Estrin. I guess it shows how much chess has "evolved" in the last decade or so.

C

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Originally posted by Squelchbelch
It doesn't take a genius to see that no player could get average results in many games with 20 non-database moves of
top 1 match = 60%
top 2 match = 75%
top 3 match = 85%
(all 3 figures)

so ask yourself what good reason is there that a player should play so much more like an engine than this unless they aren't using one?
I think the colourful language you and Subgrappler used last time was "anyone with half a brain".

C

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Originally posted by Fat Lady
I feel proud and a little bit humble to be part of a site where the top players regularly outperform Kramnik, Topov, Alekhine, Capablanca, Fischer, Spassky and Estrin. I guess it shows how much chess has "evolved" in the last decade or so.
You mean it is in "top players" as in the top ten or whose in the front page or what? Last time you named one individual, are you stating that there are tonnes?

a
Frustrate the Bad

Liverpool

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OK, another methodological query comes to find. Take the Fischer-Spassky game cited above, In c 30% of relevant moves, players chose outside the 'top 3'. This sounds like a big deal, but of course may not be if, say, the 'top 5' are separated by small centi-pawns. Equally, a 'top 1' pick is less of a deal if it's the only sensibly strong move.

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