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Mctayto
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How often would you expect to find an 1100 beating an 1850 player ??

AttilaTheHorn
Erro Ergo Sum

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Originally posted by Mctayto
How often would you expect to find an 1100 beating an 1850 player ??
Statistically, a player with an 1100 rating has a 0.0135 chance of beating a player with an 1850 rating. In other words, he should win about 1% of the time.

i
SelfProclaimedTitler

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But yet again, the human factor is pretty random and unpredictable. Especially when you underestimate your opponent. You have to respect your opponent, otherwise you are toasted.

Example :

Your opponent maybe usually plays very fast and careless so he is rated 1200. He could play for 1450 when playing slow and carefully. You, on the other hand are 1700. You could play for 1450 too, when playing like careless pig.

So, seeing your rating he plays with everything he's got and by seeing his rating you stop to play serious chess, you get overconfident, set up cheapos etc.

So you lose way too often than you statistically should. Especially when you are playing on the internet so you don't care that much.

k

washington

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As my dad told me, the pieces do not care who moves them. Anyone can lose a game no matter how good.

p
Highlander

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Originally posted by Mctayto
How often would you expect to find an 1100 beating an 1850 player ??
A lot depends on the individual player. A confident player of say 1800 rating may lose occasionally to much lower rated opponents from being careless. That same confidence would mean that he would also win more games vs. higher rated players than an average 1800er. A player who lacks confidence, again 1800, would slip-up far less against lower opposition, but be much less successful against higher grades than the confident player.

Also we all have opponents who we do far better(or worse) against than their rating would suggest. I can think of a few players higher rated than me that I have a plus score against, and a few lower that I have a minus score.

b
Enigma

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Originally posted by Mctayto
How often would you expect to find an 1100 beating an 1850 player ??
I'd say about 1-2% of the time. 😏

p
Highlander

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Originally posted by AttilaTheHorn
Statistically, a player with an 1100 rating has a 0.0135 chance of beating a player with an 1850 rating. In other words, he should win about 1% of the time.
I could be wrong on this but.... Most rating systems ignore games with a difference of more than 800 points because statistically the higher rated player should score 100%

F

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Originally posted by Mctayto
How often would you expect to find an 1100 beating an 1850 player ??
Why do you ask...? You have a reason to ask, don't you...?

Mctayto
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Originally posted by FabianFnas
Why do you ask...? You have a reason to ask, don't you...?
😉 I came across this one and thought it rather odd Game 5760860

K
Chess Warrior

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Originally posted by Mctayto
😉 I came across this one and thought it rather odd Game 5760860
24...Nd5??? was horrible mistake - after 24...Nf3+ (with 25...Nxg1 to follow) Black would win easily.

Mctayto
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Originally posted by Korch
24...Nd5??? was horrible mistake - after 24...Nf3+ (with 25...Nxg1 to follow) Black would win easily.
exactly, so my question is - would an 1850 player miss Nf3 fork ?

N

The sky

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Originally posted by Mctayto
exactly, so my question is - would an 1850 player miss Nf3 fork ?
Maybe when drunk, or making a mouse slip. I once did something very similar - I analysed and found a good move on the analysis board, quickly played it and realised the very moment I clicked "submit move" that I had played the wrong move, which lost me the game very quickly.

g

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Originally posted by Mctayto
exactly, so my question is - would an 1850 player miss Nf3 fork ?
Any player that is not paying attention could blunder.

Mctayto
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I take your point re blunders as I frequently make the 🙁
However in this game the 1850 player has only 39 in progress against a 1050 player so I can't understand how in a tight game they would not ensure that they don't lose to a 1050. It has been pointed out that statistically it would be less than 0.0135% chance of 1850 beating a 1050 player

K
Chess Warrior

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Originally posted by Mctayto
I take your point re blunders as I frequently make the 🙁
However in this game the 1850 player has only 39 in progress against a 1050 player so I can't understand how in a tight game they would not ensure that they don't lose to a 1050. It has been pointed out that statistically it would be less than 0.0135% chance of 1850 beating a 1050 player
He could be drunk, tired or affected by other out of chess factors. There could be many legal reasons for making blunder.

P.S. His play before that blunder also was far from perfect, in about 1800 level. So if you are trying to make cheating accusation then there is no base for it.

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