Originally posted by nimzo5
I think no one doubts with his natural talent he would have been 2200-2300 player. But he would have missed his years of training with Magokonov, would not have the access to norm events that come with being a prodigy. Reaching GM is far harder than people estimate and many super talented players never get there.
Moreover, he would have missed out on the decades of experience that he did have. People underestimate this factor, but it's been shown - De Groot, for one - that while the difference between a bad and a good player, or a good and a great one, is talent, application, and theoretical knowledge, the difference between a great player and a grand master is the ability to recognise tactical and strategic patterns - not analyse, but recognise from positions seen before and stored in memory.
To get this ability, one has to, obviously have seen those positions. And not only seen them, but stored them, in a way that one can recognise them when one sees them many years later. This does come easier to some than to others, but above all, it comes much, much easier to children than to adults. Learning to recognise the relevant patterns in the world around us is, after all, what childhood is for in the first place.
Laying the foundations for grandmastership as a child is possible for the same reason that learning to speak as a child is possible. Becoming a grand master as an adult is nearly impossible for the same reason that children who have never been raised with language cannot learn to speak later in life, and adults who have been exposed to only one language as a child find learning languages harder than those who learned more in their early years.
He could however hold out and win the Senior Championship and get the Gm title that way 🙂
I doubt even that. He'd have to beat all those patzers who don't have his talent, but would have those forty years' advantage.
Richard