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Originally posted by Fat LadyTopalov peaked two years ago. Now he is yesterday's news. I wouldn't bet on him.
Topov is trying hard every game. If I was a betting man, which I am, I think I would make him the favourite. Poor old Shirov lost again - that makes five losses and a draw in the first six rounds!
Almost the half-way point, and Topalov and Kramnik stand tied for second, one point behind leader Radjabov. But, look at where the ones appear on the crosstable: only Kramnik and Aronian have wins against players in the top half.
Originally posted by Fat LadyI can't believe what happened to Shirov... Does he just not care anymore? have all the other Super-GMs passed him by?
Topov is trying hard every game. If I was a betting man, which I am, I think I would make him the favourite. Poor old Shirov lost again - that makes five losses and a draw in the first six rounds!
Originally posted by zebanoI remember a tournament a few years ago where Michael Adams was getting duffed up by everyone. One of the GM commentators said that often when someone has a few bad results early on, this makes all the other players try their hardest against him as he is seen as being out of form.
I can't believe what happened to Shirov... Does he just not care anymore? have all the other Super-GMs passed him by?
This, of course, makes it harder still for the poor old tail-ender as he doesn't get any easy draws and so gets more exhausted. It's a bit like a pride of lions picking on a wildebeest which has picked up an injury!
Originally posted by WulebgrI think Radjabov, who is the current leader of a tournament that includes the world's #1, 2, & 3, deserves to have his chances assesed a little more optimistically than to say it looks like he may have a good chance to tie.
Kramnik defeated Anand in today's action at Wijk aan Zee.
I remain optimistic regarding my prediction that Kramnik will win the event, although Radjabov looks to have a good chance to tie him. Kramnik has white in their game, which comes next Friday in round 11.
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Originally posted by SkorjHas he played 1,2, or 3?
I think Radjabov, who is the current leader of a tournament that includes the world's #1, 2, & 3, deserves to have his chances assesed a little more optimistically than to say it looks like he may have a good chance to tie.
Kramnik's win today gave Anand his first loss. Most of Radjabov's wins are against players that have two losses each.
Expecting Radjabov to hold his lead through the second half enough to tie is optimistic on his behalf.
Originally posted by Wulebgra win is a win, and radjabov has 3 more of them than kramnik. and given kramnik's 'talent' for drawing, I don't really know how likely it is that he'll catch up. radjabov is a full point ahead, which is a big advantage, not optimism.
Has he played 1,2, or 3?
Kramnik's win today gave Anand his first loss. Most of Radjabov's wins are against players that have two losses each.
Expecting Radjabov to hold his lead through the second half enough to tie [b]is optimistic on his behalf.[/b]
topalov, well, he can do whatever. he can get into an amazing winning streak, or lose everything. the only thing that's certain, is he isn't very likely to draw a lot.
but there's still a lot of games left, so anything can happen. I hope shirov gets his game together.
Originally posted by wormwoodCheck your math. Kramnik would not be one point behind Radjabov if he had three fewer wins.
a win is a win, and radjabov has 3 more of them than kramnik. and given kramnik's 'talent' for drawing, I don't really know how likely it is that he'll catch up. radjabov is a full point ahead, which is a big advantage, not optimism.
I agree that all wins count the same; that much is obvious. However, attempting to predict the final result when more than half of the games remain to be played gives us reason to look at the quality of the wins.
Anand's performance rating in the event so far is very nearly his actual rating, and it would be + if not for his loss to Kramnik. Among Radjabov's victims, only Navara's performance rating is currently at a plus relative to his actual rating.
I think Topalov will win. He has a huge point to prove, and hasn't got off to a bad start, and thanks to his energy and stamina should mop up points when fatigue sets in elsewhere.
I don't think Kramnik is here to win. Why the short draws against lesser players if he is? Maybe he also has a point to prove: that he can be Anand, and Topalov? Or maybe he's just taking it easy after his honeymoon.
Radj stands a good chance, after such a great start, of course. Does anyone know the colour of his pairing v Kramnik? It'd be fascinating to see if Kramnik can duff over his version of the KID as comprehensively as Kramnik duffed over Kasparov's KID . . .
Originally posted by TommyCfrom the first post in the thread:
Radj stands a good chance, after such a great start, of course. Does anyone know the colour of his pairing v Kramnik?
Originally posted by Wulebgr
Kramnik has white in their game, which comes next Friday in round 11.
There is no question that Radjabov is off to a great start; however, he plays the upper half in the second half. To maintain his lead, he needs to play even better than he has so far.
Originally posted by WulebgrCould be. It's not my intent to be his cheering section. But I don't think that you can take a player who is as strong as Radjabov to begin with and who's strongest play is most likely yet to be seen, give him a full point lead nearly half way through and not consider that he's a least got a decent shot to win.
...Expecting Radjabov to hold his lead through the second half enough to tie [b]is optimistic on his behalf.[/b]