Originally posted by big bern
i agree. it has to be close to an enormous number since , with all the smart minds on this site, we have no answer yet.
This is simple mathematics. The result is almost indescribably complex, but the maths is simple.
As Dragon Fire stated, there are 20 possible first moves for white - each pawn one or two, and the two knights to one of two squares. In response to each of these 20 moves, black has 20 responses. So for the first move, a computer like Deep Blue must calculate (taking out the fact the openings are programmed in, etc etc) 20x20 possible positions for the first move of the game = 400 positions.
For move number 2 it gets far more complex. For each of these 400 positions, there are 'x' number of responses for white. Deep Blue must calculate them all to decide on the best continutation. As I said in my previous post, this means that to calculate to perfection all possibilities for the next 3 moves in a standard middlegame position, it needs to assess 3 billion positions (on average). With a process speed of around 200 million positions per second, it can do this in 15 seconds. But the number of positions increase exponentially with each move, so to look 4 moves ahead it needs to look at about a trillion positions. This would take it 5000 seconds, or about 2 hours.
The guy who said 10000 positions, or 1500 or any other such paltry number really needs to learn some maths.
Like a said it would take Deep Blue longer than the age of the universe to calculate everything that could happen in 25 moves, because it has to calculate every possibility. Kasparov could beat it as he has intuition, memory, spatial awareness, pattern recognition, cognitive logic, and other brain functions that the computer doesnt. But in the end processor speed alone means computers will soon dominate chess, and one day, theoretically, solve it.