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If you don't know anything about a game to be started and you are supposed to guess what move it's going to be... Then it is good to know some statistics.
1. e4 is played in 47.9% of all games played.
1. d4 is played in 39.0% of all games played.
Now we have the these to moves is played in 81.9% of all games.
What is move in third place? Answer is
1.Nf3 is played in 8.7% of all games played.
And the next position has... (da da)
1.c4 which is played in incredible 7.7% of all games.
These five alternatives for the first move adds up to 98.3%, nearly all games played.
After that we have g3, f4, b3, Nc3 etc., all with a percentage lower than 1% each.
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Originally posted by erlingI agree there. The OP decided to start with the opening position, so people, just lighten up and go with it, or wait a few turns before you get involved.
I think it has value even at this stage. Even if there is not much analytics to be applied yet, comments like bosintang's and DoctorScribbles' on the English Opening as such are useful to many.
Even though there's nothing overtly controversial about the opening moves, someone not familiar with the chess opening can benefit from a bit of commentary about the strengths and weaknesses of that move, and the rest of us can have fun guessing. Those of you who want deeper analysis and the chance to prove how smart you are will get your chance later.
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Originally posted by wormwoodHehe, he gave statistics for the opening move 1. X, you gave statistics for the reply to that, 1. c4 X.
my guess is 1...Nf6.
where did you get those statistics? the big database 2004 gives quite different picture, 1...Nf6 being most common response by far:
move games score
1...Nf6 81810 58%
1...e5 40809 54%
1...e6 22845 55%
Even then, 'score' doesn't equate to 'percent played' because those three moves combined add up to over 100%.