Probability of Ugrading Your Poker Hand

Originally posted by @apathist
That works for a shuffled deck, but not for an unrolled die.

An unrolled die is hard to come by.

Originally posted by @wolfgang59
An unrolled die is hard to come by.

I said there are two types of probability.

They sell unrolled dice in the stores, btw.

Originally posted by @apathist
They sell unrolled dice in the stores, btw.

You mean they don't test them first. 😲

Originally posted by @wolfgang59
You mean they don't test them first. 😲

You were supposed to attack the notion that there are two types of probability.

It's like I can't count on anyone at all.

sigh

Let's say I flip a coin, and hide the result from you. What are the odds of heads v tails?

Originally posted by @wolfgang59
You mean they don't test them first. 😲

Of course not - that would run the risk of rolling all the 6es out of them!

Originally posted by @apathist
sigh

Let's say I flip a coin, and hide the result from you. What are the odds of heads v tails?

50/50

Originally posted by @lemon-lime
50/50

No! It is, as a matter of fact, only one or else the other. Not half of each.

The coin was already flipped, the result had already occurred.

Originally posted by @apathist
No! It is, as a matter of fact, only one or else the other. Not half of each.

The coin was already flipped, the result had already occurred.

I see, so the odds are 100% of being one or the other.
I can't argue with your logic... so I won't.

where is D64 when we really need her?

Originally posted by @shallow-blue
Of course not - that would run the risk of rolling all the 6es out of them!

But it's identical odds of rolling out all the 1's, 2's, 3's etc.
Unless you know when you buy it, does it matter?

Incidentally, I have a special die that has never rolled a 6.
I was saving it for my next game of Risk but I'm open to offers.

Originally posted by @joe-shmo
If you are playing a game of Five Card-Draw with a friend out of a standard deck 52 card deck and you have the following hand (neglecting suits for this example) 3,3,3,5,7. You decide to discard the "5" and draw from the deck. What is the probability that you upgrade to Four of a Kind ( 3,3,3,3,7)?

I'm having a bit of trouble wrapping my head around th ...[text shortened]... deck from which you can choose) effect the probability of you drawing the remaining "3" or not?

Discard 2 and you'll have twice the odds 😉

Originally posted by @wolfgang59
...
Incidentally, I have a special die that has never rolled a 6.
...

There's one in every d&d set.

Originally posted by @apathist
There's one in every d&d set.

Don't take their word for it.
I bought one once at a boot-fair and its sixes were almost totally depleted.

Originally posted by @apathist
No! It is, as a matter of fact, only one or else the other. Not half of each.

The coin was already flipped, the result had already occurred.

Unless it's a quantum coin, of course.

Originally posted by @wolfgang59
... boot-fair ...

I'm not knowing what that means. Boot is trunk of car? So, black market?

At a football game, maybe?