Originally posted by Dance Master MCThe probability stays at 50/50, of course, assuming you have a fair coin. The coin has no "memory": past flips cannot affect future flips.
This isn't really anything intellectually stimulating, but rather a question that I need to know the answer to...
My question is: If you flip a coin 3 times, and all 3 times it lands on heads, does it become more likely that it'll land on tails if you flip the coin again?
I thought that the probability still remains the same (50% chance of head ...[text shortened]... and on tails when the coin is flipped again.
Can anyone offer some clarification to this?
Originally posted by FabianFnasIf we keep throwing the coin, we'll eventually be able to use a binomial test, for example.
The stipulations says that the coin is fair. Suppose you don't know that.
So you have a coin (or a irregular stone or something) that you don't know anything about its fairness. You flip it thrice with the same result. Is this a proof that the coin is not fair? Can you tell anything about its fairness after this trhe flips?
What about the fourth tim ...[text shortened]... ng about the fourth outcome, now that you don't know anything about the fairness of the coin?
Originally posted by DejectionCasinos earn money without great risk, because the law of large numbers guarantees that, as more and more games are played, you converge towards the expected value. If there was such a mechanism that increased this convergence speed towards the expected value, then casinos would actually decrease their risk and benefit from it (as risk is undesirable).
I think the best way to beat his 'theory' is that if he was right, casinos would be losing money!
Originally posted by Dance Master MCIt would be a different question altogether if you asked what are the odds of flipping 4 heads in a row?
Thank you for the reassurance, I knew I wasn't stupid....