30 Sep '08 22:00>
You can divide the numbers however you wish. The fact remains each number has a differing value.
2 and 4 may both be 'good', but 2 is better than 4..
It seems reasonable to look at expected outcome, which is obtained by assigning a value to each outcome and doing an average of the remaining outcomes.
I used the position number as the value, but even if you assign values differently, there remains one fact which renders the question moot.
For any given circumstance and any set of values, your expected outcome for drawing at that moment matches exactly the expected outcome for waiting for the next person to draw, because you do not know what will be picked until it is too late to decide whether you wanted to draw beforehand or not.
Now, after the next draw is made, the expected outcome will most likely shift somewhat, but this doesn't help you BEFOREHAND, because it could have just as easily went the other way.
2 and 4 may both be 'good', but 2 is better than 4..
It seems reasonable to look at expected outcome, which is obtained by assigning a value to each outcome and doing an average of the remaining outcomes.
I used the position number as the value, but even if you assign values differently, there remains one fact which renders the question moot.
For any given circumstance and any set of values, your expected outcome for drawing at that moment matches exactly the expected outcome for waiting for the next person to draw, because you do not know what will be picked until it is too late to decide whether you wanted to draw beforehand or not.
Now, after the next draw is made, the expected outcome will most likely shift somewhat, but this doesn't help you BEFOREHAND, because it could have just as easily went the other way.