21 Mar 20
OK exponential growth people, what kind of growth should we be seeing in the number of deaths caused by corona virus?
The kind of exponential growth I usually think of is something like 2 to the x power resulting in the pattern...
1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512,1024...
For the past 3 days the US has had a number of new deaths about 50, which does not seem to be exponential growth.
21 Mar 20
1 edit
@eladar saidThe number of new infections is growing exponentially, but the number of deaths, given a mean time from infection to death of 18 days (figure from memory) mirrors new cases from further back in the curve. It was like that with UK cases a week ago.
OK exponential growth people, what kind of growth should we be seeing in the number of deaths caused by corona virus?
The kind of exponential growth I usually think of is something like 2 to the x power resulting in the pattern...
1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512,1024...
For the past 3 days the US has had a number of new deaths about 50, which does not seem to be exponential growth.
Edit: I was on my phone earlier, in the meantime I had a look at the worldometers site and there is a clearly exponential increase in both cases and deaths in the US. You just have to look at the graph. You can check this by clicking on the log scale button and the graph becomes linear, with no downward curve.
21 Mar 20
@eladar saidIt is impossible to calculate because you don't know how many C19 infection there are and you may never know. Many death attributed to the flu may have been from C19 infections. Since no tests existed it may have been here in the US longer than people think. I had a really bad cold last year right before fall. I was miserable. Maybe it was C19. How could you rule that out?
OK exponential growth people, what kind of growth should we be seeing in the number of deaths caused by corona virus?
The kind of exponential growth I usually think of is something like 2 to the x power resulting in the pattern...
1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512,1024...
For the past 3 days the US has had a number of new deaths about 50, which does not seem to be exponential growth.
https://www.msn.com/en-za/news/other/flu-related-deaths-in-us-may-be-caused-by-covid-19/ar-BB118rPD
@Metal-Brain
We could rule that out because C19 showed up in 2020 not in 19 in the US anyway.
@deepthought saidInfections are difficult to know because we are not testing everyone. They only test sick people.
The number of new infections is growing exponentially, but the number of deaths, given a mean time from infection to death of 18 days (figure from memory) mirrors new cases from further back in the curve. It was like that with UK cases a week ago.
Edit: I was on my phone earlier, in the meantime I had a look at the worldometers site and there is a clearly exponential ...[text shortened]... check this by clicking on the log scale button and the graph becomes linear, with no downward curve.
Deaths are a more accurate count. Deaths are what we should be concerned with.
By the way, you do known there are more types of curves than just exponential.
Show me your exponential numbers. Do not simply claim to be the source of true opinion.
Try US numbers which have had about 50 deaths the last 3 days.
@eladar saidTaking the data from
Infections are difficult to know because we are not testing everyone. They only test sick people.
Deaths are a more accurate count. Deaths are what we should be concerned with.
By the way, you do known there are more types of curves than just exponential.
Show me your exponential numbers. Do not simply claim to be the source of true opinion.
Try US numbers which have had about 50 deaths the last 3 days.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
which report 256 dead as of yesterday (and who give sources) and their daily number starting with one dead at 29th of February I can model the curve death over day using the exponential curve
1.61*exp(0.24*d) with a r-value of 0.97 which is reasonable.
If I calculate to day 42 (which is three weeks in the future) I obtain 38416.
So lets wait and see?
Oh and the CDC (www.cdc.gov) gives a number of 202 confirmed dead as of today. But since I can't get their daily data it is difficult to model the curve.
What is your source for the 50?
Edit: Worldometers.info just changed to 276 death today it should be around 316 if the curve was correct.
@ponderable saidI am tracking US deaths. I subtract yesterday's total death from today's. I take my numbers at about 8 pm central time.
Taking the data from
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
which report 256 dead as of yesterday (and who give sources) and their daily number starting with one dead at 29th of February I can model the curve death over day using the exponential curve
1.61*exp(0.24*d) with a r-value of 0.97 which is reasonable.
If I calculate to day 42 (which is three we ...[text shortened]... Worldometers.info just changed to 276 death today it should be around 316 if the curve was correct.
21 Mar 20
@eladar saidThat doesn't say where your data come from. If we use the worldometers site we have 147 death in the last three accounted days. (Today excluded, they give 25 as of now)
I am tracking US deaths. I subtract yesterday's total death from todays's. I take my numbers at about 8 pm central time.
@ponderable saidI said about 50 deaths a day for the past 3 days. Each day had 50 new deaths.
That doesn't say where your data come from. If we use the worldometers site we have 147 death in the last three accounted days. (Today excluded, they give 25 as of now)
21 Mar 20
1 edit
@eladar saidThank you for the clarification.
I said about 50 deaths a day for the past 3 days. Each day had 50 new deaths.
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@ponderable saidThe curve is not purely exponential, its logistical. I think you are going to greatly overestimate.
Taking the data from
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
which report 256 dead as of yesterday (and who give sources) and their daily number starting with one dead at 29th of February I can model the curve death over day using the exponential curve
1.61*exp(0.24*d) with a r-value of 0.97 which is reasonable.
If I calculate to day 42 (which is three we ...[text shortened]... Worldometers.info just changed to 276 death today it should be around 316 if the curve was correct.
21 Mar 20
@joe-shmo saidThe total death curve will be logistical. Only so many people can die.
Please watch this explanation of exponential growth:
[youtube COVID19 - Exponential Growth Explained]Kas0tIxDvrg[/youtube]
I never believed it would be exponential. Others claim that the growth is exponential, so this thread.