Originally posted by KellyJay
You miss my point, we can look at DNA now see the numbers and find
what the odds are for it just occur. The fact that we found DNA is 1,
but what were the odds using DNA that you'd be here?
I go to a beach of pebbles. I take up one pebble and ask the question: "What is the probability that there exist a pebble exactly like this?" (It's a classical question.)
The answer is: =1 because I hold the one in the hand.
(You use the term odds, I use the term probability. If E(p) = 1 then odds = 1/probablity. Normally in gambling E(p) is not =1, because the betting company have to make some profit. You can still use odds, but I prefer probability because it is more well defined.)
So when you ask about the probability that the DNA-chain looks like it actually is, then the answer must be =1.
But if you ask this question: "What is the probability that a planet, any planet, with an age of 4.6 billion of years can come up with a DNA exactly like this?" Then the answer is =0 (if not there has to be some transfer of DNA from our planet to the other, This is a question of its own.)
Is this answer surprising? No it isn't. What is the probability that you find another pebble on the beach that is exactly like the one you're holding in your hand? Same answer: =0.
Is it possible to find a pebble with enogh likeness of the one you're holding in your hand? Then we have to define 'likeness', And we can have any answer depanding of the definition.
What is the probability that another planet, old as ours, can come up with DNA-like structure, in some kind of evolution? It's a definition of 'DNA-like'.
We don't know anything about life on exo-planets, therefore we cannot give any probability at all.
Please, Kelly, I know your KJ retorics, so I hope very much that you believe the things I write, if you don't have better answer yourself. You might have, then I am willing to change my view, of course. (I have a scientific mind, you know.)