Please turn on javascript in your browser to play chess.
Science Forum

Science Forum

  1. 02 Aug '15 07:31 / 2 edits
    http://phys.org/news/2015-07-cataclysmic-event-age.html

    I only thought this was noteworthy enough to be worth posting here because this sounds to me like an excellent example of how Bayesian analysis (which, incidentally, I have a very special interest in in my current research as I hope to create a revolution in the science in statistics ) can be used in science to rationally work out the probability of a theory. This is because it mentions:

    "..The researchers used Bayesian statistical analyses of 354 dates taken from 30 sites on more than four continents. By using Bayesian analysis, the researchers were able to calculate more robust age models through multiple, progressive statistical iterations that consider all related age data

    "This range overlaps with that of a platinum peak recorded in the Greenland ice sheet and of the onset of the Younger Dryas climate episode in six independent key records," explained Kennett, professor emeritus in UCSB's Department of Earth Science. "This suggests a causal connection between the impact event and the Younger Dryas cooling."

    "We tested this to determine if the dates for the layer in all of these sites are in the same window and statistically whether they come from the same event," Kennett said. "Our analysis shows with 95 percent probability that the dates are consistent with a single cosmic impact event."

    ..."
  2. Standard member sonhouse
    Fast and Curious
    02 Aug '15 12:14
    Originally posted by humy
    http://phys.org/news/2015-07-cataclysmic-event-age.html

    I only thought this was noteworthy enough to be worth posting here because this sounds to me like an excellent example of how Bayesian analysis (which, incidentally, I have a very special interest in in my current research as I hope to create a revolution in the science in statistics ) can be used in sc ...[text shortened]... 95 percent probability that the dates are consistent with a single cosmic impact event."

    ..."
    But it doesn't point to a possible location of the hit 12K years ago does it?