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  1. Subscriber sonhouse
    Fast and Curious
    05 Oct '17 11:01
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/science/asteroid-skim-earth-close-moon-10969918

    It won't hit, going by 27,000 miles high, higher than geo stationary sats.

    My question is, how much will the object's orbit be changed by close passage to Earth and will it get closer next time?
  2. 05 Oct '17 11:29
    Are you assuming that it will not pass by any other large object changing its course?
  3. 05 Oct '17 12:17
    Originally posted by @sonhouse
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/science/asteroid-skim-earth-close-moon-10969918

    It won't hit, going by 27,000 miles high, higher than geo stationary sats.

    My question is, how much will the object's orbit be changed by close passage to Earth and will it get closer next time?
    Its orbit will change, but it will still be a threat to Earth.

    One criterium that it will collide is if our two orbits, the Earth and the asteroid, have a point common in space. Another criterium is if the two bodies will be at this point at the same time, then it will smash into Earth.

    It's orbital elements will change, but the new orbit will also have the first criterium fulfilled, the point in space. Eventually, next year or next million years, it will collide (if its orbit is not changed by something else).
  4. 05 Oct '17 12:19
    Originally posted by @fabianfnas
    Its orbit will change, but it will still be a threat to Earth.

    One criterium that it will collide is if our two orbits, the Earth and the asteroid, have a point common in space. Another criterium is if the two bodies will be at this point at the same time, then it will smash into Earth.

    It's orbital elements will change, but the new orbit will also ...[text shortened]... ext year or next million years, it will collide (if its orbit is not changed by something else).
    Way to state the obvious using great terms.
  5. Standard member apathist
    looking for loot
    11 Oct '17 15:12
    Originally posted by @fabianfnas... Eventually, next year or next million years, it will collide (if its orbit is not changed by something else).
    If the object is from outside of our system then it may well pass through and never return.
  6. Standard member Soothfast
    0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,
    12 Oct '17 00:37
    Originally posted by @sonhouse
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/science/asteroid-skim-earth-close-moon-10969918

    It won't hit, going by 27,000 miles high, higher than geo stationary sats.

    My question is, how much will the object's orbit be changed by close passage to Earth and will it get closer next time?
    I'm more worried about Rush Limbaugh slipping in the bath tub.
  7. 12 Oct '17 09:54 / 4 edits
    Originally posted by @eladar
    Are you assuming that it will not pass by any other large object changing its course?
    It should be possible to accurately predict whether it will pass close to a planet or moon providing one doesn't try and extrapolate too far into the future.
  8. 12 Oct '17 09:59 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by @humy
    Hang on! Just noticed what you exactly said there;
    Surely you don't think scientists are so stupid as to not take into account in their predictions of its trajectory the gravitational effect of it passing close to a planet or moon, right?
    Evidently you need more time to figure out what I said. But then again given all the time in the world you still couldn't figure it out.
  9. 12 Oct '17 10:04 / 7 edits
    Originally posted by @sonhouse

    My question is, how much will the object's orbit be changed by close passage to Earth and will it get closer next time?
    The second part of your question of "will it get closer next time?" is much more complicated to work out the answer to because the Earth is orbiting around the Sun and will presumably be in a very different position if next time it enters the inner solar system. Not that I thought for a moment you didn't already know that ๐Ÿ˜›
  10. 12 Oct '17 10:20 / 2 edits
    Originally posted by @eladar
    But then again given all the time in the world you still couldn't figure it out.
    That would mean what you said is complete gibberish just like much of what you say. To figure out complete gibberish, you need to think in complete gibberish. I have the mental weakness of not being able to think in complete gibberish so I confess you mentally have the big advantage over me there.
  11. 12 Oct '17 10:28
    Originally posted by @humy
    That would mean what you said is complete gibberish just like much of what you say.
    No, that would mean that you don't really indersyand how things work. Your understanding is again shown to be lacking.

    Let me see if I can enlighten you.

    What is the asteroid's orbit?

    What objects might it encounter diring its entire orbit, not just when its path takes it near earth?
  12. Subscriber sonhouse
    Fast and Curious
    12 Oct '17 16:24
    Originally posted by @humy
    The second part of your question of "will it get closer next time?" is much more complicated to work out the answer to because the Earth is orbiting around the Sun and will presumably be in a very different position if next time it enters the inner solar system. Not that I thought for a moment you didn't already know that ๐Ÿ˜›
    Yes I did. Did I miss something about the orbit of this asteroid? Is it one of those that goes out billions of miles and then back every thousand years or something or do they know more about the present orbit? If they know the perturbation passing Earth it should be able to calculate what it gets close to next and how close and therefore how much it will be effected by THAT body, Venus? I have no idea, maybe nothing. Did they list the orbital period, at least the period before it got close to Earth?
  13. 12 Oct '17 18:50
    Originally posted by @sonhouse
    Yes I did. Did I miss something about the orbit of this asteroid? Is it one of those that goes out billions of miles and then back every thousand years or something or do they know more about the present orbit? If they know the perturbation passing Earth it should be able to calculate what it gets close to next and how close and therefore how much it will ...[text shortened]... ybe nothing. Did they list the orbital period, at least the period before it got close to Earth?
    Is it possible for one of those that goes out millions of miles and back every thousand years or something to re-enter the solar system and collide with the asteroid?
  14. Standard member vivify
    rain
    13 Oct '17 11:09
    If the asteroid collided with earth, how much of it would disintegrate upon entry to earth's atmosphere? Do scientists have a way of calculating that?
  15. Subscriber sonhouse
    Fast and Curious
    13 Oct '17 12:32 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by @vivify
    If the asteroid collided with earth, how much of it would disintegrate upon entry to earth's atmosphere? Do scientists have a way of calculating that?
    They can calculate such things but it wouldn't be like don't worry be happy. If a large asteroid slammed into Earth and mostly burned up in the atmosphere, there would be world wide clouds of dust that would effect weather, causing a drop in temperatures world wide to say nothing of the crater and ejecta coming from the asteroid itself. Remember, the Chixulub asteroid was only a few miles across.

    Update:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4977312/Asteroid-came-close-Earth-not-miss-2079.html

    So during the 2019 flyby they can make better predictions as to how close it comes in 2079.

    Even if it hits, it is relatively small compared to the extinction even asteroids, at 100 feet, 30 meters or so across. Most likely burn up in atmosphere like the one that grazed Russia recently.

    Of course it all depends on the angle of the dangle๐Ÿ™‚