1. Joined
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    10 May '17 22:121 edit
    Originally posted by sonhouse
    So prove it.
    Current temps prove it.

    I guess you have conveniently forgotten about the computer model hype that led to Al Gore's inconvenient truth.

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/02/95-of-climate-models-agree-the-observations-must-be-wrong/
  2. Joined
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    11 May '17 06:238 edits
    Originally posted by Eladar
    Current temps prove it.
    Errr, Via what in science is called the Null hypothesis ( see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Null_hypothesis ) , current temps prove man made global warming because current temps are too high to be fully explainable by any/all known natural causes; please keep up to speed and study the basic climate findings and observations that have been made in the last few years before embarrassing yourself again.
  3. Cape Town
    Joined
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    11 May '17 08:37
    Originally posted by Eladar
    Current temps prove it.
    Current temps are the highest on record. Sorry, but current temps prove that the globe is warming. I am sure you can find a politician that will say otherwise, but I bet you can't find any scientific data that says otherwise.
  4. Joined
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    11 May '17 17:411 edit
    Originally posted by Eladar
    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/02/95-of-climate-models-agree-the-observations-must-be-wrong/
    Eladar, can you explain the graph in your reference? The author is claiming this data proves climate models are wrong, but does not explain the basis for the conclusion, and the figure has no legend. In the data presented, the model average and the global temperature are exactly the same as projected 15 years into the future ('83-'98), and seem to mirror global fluctuations with remarkable accuracy.

    After that 15-year period, the models veer off, but obviously there are many possible explanations for this. a) the models could be wrong. But the data does not support this, as if that were true, wouldn't they have been wrong prior to that point as well? b) the temp. measurements were wrong. But that does not indicate whether or not models are wrong. c) the input variables were too unpredictable based on a priori assumptions about the distant future. This is partially true [1], as predicted changes to carbon emissions and land use were not correct. d) the early models were missing important variables that changed after 1998. This is also true, as carbon sinks, land usage etc., accuracy of measurements, were not very well understood in the '80s. Modern analyses have shown they are only off by ~0.05 degrees [2,3] , which is well within a reasonable statistical range.

    So I ask again: how does the author of your primary reference come to the conclusion that 95% of the models are wrong?

    [1] http://www.popsci.com/is-climate-too-complex-to-model-or-predict
    [2] http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/Mann/articles/articles/grl53276.pdf
    [3] http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/education/pd/climate/factsheets/howreliable.pdf
  5. Joined
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    11 May '17 22:59
    The models predicted warmer temps than what we have. It is simple as that.

    As for his orher stuff, I do not care. False predictions are false predictions. If you actually have questions for him, contact him.
  6. Joined
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    12 May '17 05:5513 edits
    Originally posted by Eladar
    The models predicted warmer temps than what we have.
    False; The vast majority models made by climate scientists that was used to predict current global temp have correctly predicted the current warmer global temps within the calculated estimated error of those models.
    There is absolutely no evidence nor reason to believe whatsoever that climate models have generally overestimated the current global temps and I challenge you to show evidence to the contrary...
    As for his other stuff, I do not care. (spelling corrected)

    Then why did you bring it up? Why even mention an obviously irrelevant false prediction given its obvious total irrelevance to the issue of man made global warming?
  7. Subscribersonhouse
    Fast and Curious
    slatington, pa, usa
    Joined
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    12 May '17 11:08
    Originally posted by Eladar
    The models predicted warmer temps than what we have. It is simple as that.

    As for his orher stuff, I do not care. False predictions are false predictions. If you actually have questions for him, contact him.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere

    This link shows CO2 now at the highest levels in at LEAST 800,000 years and possibly in the last 20 million years. It was much higher in Cambrian times, hundreds of millions of years ago and the climate back then showed it. Steamy jungle kind of times.

    Your grandkids are going to be very ticked off by your generation of climate change deniers especially if assswipes like Trumpf has his way and completes the dismantling of EPA and the Paris accords. If that happens the entire world will suffer. As well as a permenent dent in the respectability of the US. Without the US there will BE no attempt to mitigate human causes of climate change. That humans are effecting climate change is no longer in doubt. You need to catch up to the 21st century and believe it.
  8. Cape Town
    Joined
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    12 May '17 14:13
    Originally posted by sonhouse
    As well as a permenent dent in the respectability of the US.
    Sorry, but since Trump you have no respectability to dent.

    Without the US there will BE no attempt to mitigate human causes of climate change.
    Nonsense. The US has always been the most backward first world nation on the issue and is a long way behind China. China and Europe and even Zambia will continue to take action despite Trump.
  9. Joined
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    12 May '17 15:08
    Originally posted by twhitehead
    Point me to almost any science news article or science documentary and I will almost certainly be able to point out an exaggeration, wild speculation or flat out falsehood. But that doesn't make all science wrong.
    Global warming is real and you know it.
    The real question is why you wish to portray it as if it isn't. What is your real concern? Is there a perceived cost? Are you being payed to be negative about it? Is it a political agenda?
    "Global warming is real and you know it."

    Global warming is real, but even Ira Flatow never says "man made" or "anthropogenic" when he probably is thinking that is what he is saying.
    Do you mean anthropogenic global warming? If not, stop stating the obvious. Nobody really thinks global warming is a hoax. Even Trump is using his words loosely just like Ira Flatow and it bothers me no matter who is omitting important words like that.
  10. Joined
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    12 May '17 15:14
    Originally posted by sonhouse
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere

    This link shows CO2 now at the highest levels in at LEAST 800,000 years and possibly in the last 20 million years. It was much higher in Cambrian times, hundreds of millions of years ago and the climate back then showed it. Steamy jungle kind of times.

    Your grandkids are going to be ...[text shortened]... g climate change is no longer in doubt. You need to catch up to the 21st century and believe it.
    Don't you ever learn? The Pliocene had about the same CO2 level as today, yet it is much cooler than back then. The amount of warming due to CO2 is obviously been greatly overestimated. That is why climate model predictions have been mostly wrong. Wrong input results in wrong output.
  11. Joined
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    12 May '17 15:23
    Originally posted by humy
    False; The vast majority models made by climate scientists that was used to predict current global temp have correctly predicted the current warmer global temps within the calculated estimated error of those models.
    There is absolutely no evidence nor reason to believe whatsoever that climate models have generally overestimated the current global temps and I c ...[text shortened]... nt false prediction given its obvious total irrelevance to the issue of man made global warming?
    False!
    Future predictions have been mostly wrong and I provided that proof in my "predicting the past" thread. You are still claiming falsehoods without any credible source of information. As far as "calculated estimated errors" goes, anybody can make a prediction and admit their errors could be so freaking bad that it is not worth the paper it is written on.

    You are deliberately misleading people in a pathetic way!
  12. Joined
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    12 May '17 15:32
    Originally posted by twhitehead
    The problem is that all you saw was Al Gore on TV.

    Many of us knew about global warming in the 80s (some maybe before that, but I am not that old), and have known about it ever since and have monitored the actual science behind it, not the politicians.
    The actual scientific models have been proven right. They have come to pass.
    And the ice on Mt Kili ...[text shortened]... uture.
    That you felt the need to hide that fact suggests you know full well that you are wrong.
    "The actual scientific models have been proven right."

    Most future predictions have been proven wrong. See my "predicting the past" thread and interject if you think you are right and can provide a credible source of information.
  13. Joined
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    12 May '17 15:39
    Originally posted by sonhouse
    You really don't get it. When the Arctic warms up, it actually releases more CO2 than it absorbs and that is happening as we speak. I am not talking about a cataclysm happening in ten years I am talking about the next 100 years and we are not doing our grandkids any favors, in fact they will most likely vilify us as stupid in the face of actual climate chan ...[text shortened]... civilization itself from hitting rock bottom and back to the 400's after the Roman Empire died.
    When the ocean warms it cannot hold as much CO2. That is why the Vostok ice core samples show CO2 lags behind temperature increases. Since Al Gore had his cause and effect backwards there is no evidence CO2 warms the planet enough to be alarmed. The fact that there is no runaway warming should be enough to set your mind at ease.
  14. Joined
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    12 May '17 15:48
    Originally posted by twhitehead
    And when they fluctuate a lot, the results are catastrophic. In the past 5000 years, there were more deaths as a result of weather fluctuations than from war. Whole civilisations have come and gone due to climate change.
    Now you may think that just because its happened before its ALL OK, I beg to differ. I don't want to die at 20 just because that was co ...[text shortened]... e than they need to just so that your employer can sell more coal. Go get a job at a solar farm.
    "In the past 5000 years, there were more deaths as a result of weather fluctuations than from war."

    Do you mean starvation due to drought and resulting crop losses or flooding because people live too close to rivers? That has nothing to do with global warming. That is called weather. You are digressing into BS.
  15. Joined
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    12 May '17 15:52
    Originally posted by sonhouse
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere

    This link shows CO2 now at the highest levels in at LEAST 800,000 years and possibly in the last 20 million years. It was much higher in Cambrian times, hundreds of millions of years ago and the climate back then showed it. Steamy jungle kind of times.

    Your grandkids are going to be ...[text shortened]... g climate change is no longer in doubt. You need to catch up to the 21st century and believe it.
    U.S. coal companies ask Trump to stick with Paris climate deal.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-coal-idUSKBN1762YY

    Stop making false assertions!
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