Major earthquake/Tsunami in a week?

I was just watching a special on the discovery channel where a scientist made bold declarations about full eclipses and its correlation to earthquake and volcanic activity. As we all know, the moon exerts a gravitational pull on the earth as does the sun. However, when they are in alignment they exert the most pull at that time on the earths crust which causes greater instability. The scientist in question, can't remember his name, was once hired by the state of Califormia to study earthquakes. He then began predicting them with accuracy based upon these occurances. However, he was warned not to do so, according to him, and was subsequently fired the last time he made the prediction.....even though he was right! The last prediction he made was the quake that hit the San Fran area during the World Series. He said he was inside a building in California during the quake and when he felt the quake he was instantly full of joy because he has been proved right....that is before panic set in and he realized that he had to get the @@!!@ out of the building!! LOL. Apparently the reason they said they fired him was that he was creating mass panic in the California area when he made the predictions. I'm just glad Big Brother is there to look out for us.

So guess what gang, the next full eclipse is tomorrow on 7/22/09 with its fullest gravitational pull focused in the far east area around India. So any predictions? I guess we will see soon enough, eh?

Originally posted by whodey
I was just watching a special on the discovery channel where a scientist made bold declarations about full eclipses and its correlation to earthquake and volcanic activity. As we all know, the moon exerts a gravitational pull on the earth as does the sun. However, when they are in alignment they exert the most pull at that time on the earths crust which cau ...[text shortened]... cused in the far east around India. So any predictions? I guess we will see soon enough, eh?

So because some scientist guy was making some predictions base on the occurrences of eclipses, that means that all eclipses will cause earthquakes/volcanic erruptions? I see some flaws with this reasoning.

Originally posted by forkedknight
So because some scientist guy was making some predictions base on the occurrences of eclipses, that means that all eclipses will cause earthquakes/volcanic erruptions? I see some flaws with this reasoning.

Actually, what skews the data is that the moon travels in an eliptical orbit. This means that not all eclipses are equal as some exert more pull, when the moon is closest to earth, or less when the moon is at its farthest point. I have no idea where in the cycle we will be in tomorrow.

Anyhew, it will be kinda fun to sit back and watch....that is unless you are the poor sap where it all hits the fan.

Originally posted by forkedknight
So because some scientist guy was making some predictions base on the occurrences of eclipses, that means that all eclipses will cause earthquakes/volcanic erruptions? I see some flaws with this reasoning.

What was intriguing is that he traveled the globe where volcanic activity occured and there were ancient tales and traditions about the correlation to seeing eclipses and feeling quakes and seeing eruptions.

Originally posted by whodey
Actually, what skews the data is that the moon travels in an eliptical orbit. This means that not all eclipses are equal as some exert more pull, when the moon is closest to earth, or less when the moon is at its farthest point. I have no idea where in the cycle we will be in tomorrow.

More important to note is that the moon and sun are on the same side of the earth roughly every 24 hours. (is it 23 or 25 , I forget). Thats what tides are all about.
The gravitational pull would not be significantly greater during an eclipse and due to the elliptical orbit you mention would not necessarily even be the time of greatest pull anyway.
I am willing to bet though that the scientist in question cannot produce any evidence that he did predict all those earthquakes he claims to have predicted, and if the theory was true, you would not have presented us with some story about a fired scientist but rather presented us with a list of eclipses and earthquakes showing the correlation.

By the way, was there an eclipse during that world series earthquake? You don't actually say so in your original post.

Originally posted by whodey
Actually, what skews the data is that the moon travels in an eliptical orbit. This means that not all eclipses are equal as some exert more pull, when the moon is closest to earth, or less when the moon is at its farthest point. I have no idea where in the cycle we will be in tomorrow.

Anyhew, it will be kinda fun to sit back and watch....that is unless you are the poor sap where it all hits the fan.

I did the math for gravity from the sun V gravity from the moon, and it turns out there is 2.7E-13 Newtons. G(grav constant)times M (mass one)times m(mass two, which I set at 1) all divided by r^2 (radius in meters): for the sun it's about 2.2E16 meters and the moon 3.68E8 meters.
The mass of the sun in Kg is about 2E30 and the moon about 7.3E22 Kg. (6.67E-11* 2E30 Kg)/2.2E16 ^2=2.7E-13 Newtons, not a very big force, eh.
And the moon clocks out at 3.5 E -5 Newtons which is about 130 million times greater so the actual picture emerges that the change in gravity of the moon being in front of the sun V the moon being in line but on the opposite side of the earth, is still only about one part in 60 million. That doesn't sound like to me much of an argument about the gravitational impact of the moon and sun lining up.

Originally posted by twhitehead
More important to note is that the moon and sun are on the same side of the earth roughly every 24 hours. (is it 23 or 25 , I forget). Thats what tides are all about.
The gravitational pull would not be significantly greater during an eclipse and due to the elliptical orbit you mention would not necessarily even be the time of greatest pull anyway.
I am ...[text shortened]... n eclipse during that world series earthquake? You don't actually say so in your original post.

Yes, in the documentary they mentioned that there was an eclipse aroudn the time of the World Series.

As for the accuracy of the story, I have not researched it at all, rather, it was just a fun thing to talk about and see if it comes true kinda thing. Now if it does, I expect to at least get a req for it. Geesh!!

I would also like to add that not all the quakes happened at the time of the eclipse, rather, it usually happened within a week of it.

Originally posted by sonhouse
I did the math for gravity from the sun V gravity from the moon, and it turns out there is 6670 Newtons of pull at 1AU for the sun. The formula, F (in Newtons)= G(grav constant)times M (mass one)times m(mass two, which I set at 1) all divided by r^2 (radius in meters): for the sun it's about 2.2E16 meters and the moon 3.68E8 meters.
The mass of the sun in ...[text shortened]... tons which effects everything on earth including a wobble in the Earth's orbit around the sun.

Good work mate!!

Originally posted by whodey
Good work mate!!

Re-read my post, I did it wrong the first time, I redid the math and came to a very different conclusion. First time through, I didn't square r. It seems to make a rather large difference🙂

So 3.5 E-5 newtons is what a 1 Kg mass would weigh on the moon if it was on a platform 230,000 miles high. And the same for a 1 Kg mass if there was a 1 AU platform it was resting on, 3.5E-13 Newtons. So the moon exerts an incredibly larger force on the Earth than the sun ever does directly.

Originally posted by sonhouse
Re-read my post, I did it wrong the first time, I redid the math and came to a very different conclusion. First time through, I didn't square r. It seems to make a rather large difference🙂

So 3.5 E-5 newtons is what a 1 Kg mass would weigh on the moon if it was on a platform 230,000 miles high. And the same for a 1 Kg mass if there was a 1 AU platform i ...[text shortened]... ns. So the moon exerts an incredibly larger force on the Earth than the sun ever does directly.

As you saw, I didn't say GREAT work, I just said good work. 😀

Originally posted by whodey
I was just watching a special on the discovery channel where a scientist made bold declarations about full eclipses and its correlation to earthquake and volcanic activity. As we all know, the moon exerts a gravitational pull on the earth as does the sun. However, when they are in alignment they exert the most pull at that time on the earths crust which cau ...[text shortened]... in the far east area around India. So any predictions? I guess we will see soon enough, eh?

There might be something to it. If there are weak spots in the crust ready to go at any moment, maybe the sun and moon alignment might trigger it. I have to go with the poster that said the moon and earth are nearly in line even when there is no eclipse. I don't think the earth crossing the galactic plane will do much either for the same reason.

Originally posted by sonhouse
So the moon exerts an incredibly larger force on the Earth than the sun ever does directly.

Which is why the tides follow the moon and not the sun.

Originally posted by whodey
I would also like to add that not all the quakes happened at the time of the eclipse, rather, it usually happened within a week of it.

The problem with that is the following:
1. We are talking about an earthquake occurring any time during a two week period.
2. Eclipses typically happen just over twice a year.
3. Thus we have 4 weeks a year = about 1/13th of the year.
4. Earthquakes happen all the time (between 5000 to 30000 a year)
5. There are approx 3.5 magnitude 7 or greater earthquakes a year.
6. The probability that one of these magnitude 7 earthquakes occurs during the 'eclipse period' is .... I forget my maths, but I will guess about 30%.
7. So every three years or so the mad scientist in question will be right even if there is no actual correlation whatsoever.
8. You have a 1 in 3 chance of being right (and getting your rec). Tsunamis are less common so don't expect too much on that one.

Originally posted by twhitehead
The problem with that is the following:
1. We are talking about an earthquake occurring any time during a two week period.
2. Eclipses typically happen just over twice a year.
3. Thus we have 4 weeks a year = about 1/13th of the year.
4. Earthquakes happen all the time (between 5000 to 30000 a year)
5. There are approx 3.5 magnitude 7 or greater ear ...[text shortened]... right (and getting your rec). Tsunamis are less common so don't expect too much on that one.

There was a 7.8 earthquake between Australia and New Zealand last week.

He must be right?!

Originally posted by Proper Knob
There was a 7.8 earthquake between Australia and New Zealand last week.

He must be right?!

Except he (whodey) made the 'prediction' after the earthquake so he doesn't get full prophet status.