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Science Forum

  1. 29 May '15 09:18 / 3 edits
    Yet another bit of cautiously optimistic news on global warming:

    http://phys.org/news/2015-05-global-climate-verge-multi-decadal.html

    It basically says that this natural temperature cycle they think they now understand might temporarily off set man made global warming and may give us a temporary respite in global warming that "could last for a number of decades".

    I just hope they are right!

    No doubt, even if they are right, global warming will resume with strength once such a respite comes to an end; -the longer term trend is still global warming.
  2. 29 May '15 11:18
    Originally posted by humy
    Yet another bit of cautiously optimistic news on global warming:

    http://phys.org/news/2015-05-global-climate-verge-multi-decadal.html

    It basically says that this natural temperature cycle they think they now understand might temporarily off set man made global warming and may give us a temporary respite in global warming that "could last fo ...[text shortened]... th strength once such a respite comes to an end; -the longer term trend is still global warming.
    Actually that's bad news for global warming, because of basic thermodynamics.

    Cooler ocean surface waters absorb heat from the atmosphere leading to lower
    atmospheric surface temperatures.

    Lower surface temps mean less heat radiated into space.

    Less heat radiated back into space, coupled with unchanged rate of incoming heat,
    means total energy absorption rate increases.

    Basically you just make the Earth more efficient at gaining thermal energy [and storing
    it in the oceans].


    So while the rate of surface temperature rise might slow [or even halt or reverse] temporarily,
    but all you are doing is storing up more heat energy for even faster rise when the ocean
    cycle swings back the other way.
  3. 29 May '15 15:42 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by googlefudge
    Actually that's bad news for global warming, because of basic thermodynamics.

    Cooler ocean surface waters absorb heat from the atmosphere leading to lower
    atmospheric surface temperatures.

    Lower surface temps mean less heat radiated into space.

    Less heat radiated back into space, coupled with unchanged rate of incoming heat,
    means total ener ...[text shortened]... oring up more heat energy for even faster rise when the ocean
    cycle swings back the other way.
    the implication being;, the longer the respite in global warming (excluding the ocean temperatures), the more it will came back with revengeance (metaphorically speaking ) when it returns.
  4. 29 May '15 16:11
    Originally posted by humy
    [b... they now understand might temporarily off set man made global warming ....[/b]
    From what I read,they think there may be cooler surface temperatures over the Atlantic,which might bring down the global average. That doesn't equate to offsetting global warming nor mitigating its effects, and nothing they say in that article suggests that would be the case.
  5. 29 May '15 16:35
    Originally posted by humy
    the implication being;, the longer the respite in global warming (excluding the ocean temperatures), the more it will came back with revengeance (metaphorically speaking ) when it returns.
    Sort of.

    Global warming is the heat gain of the Earth system.

    If what they are saying is true, and this cycle will reduce atmospheric temps because
    of an increase in cold surface water in the North Atlantic...
    All that means is that the largest heat reservoirs in the system** will gain energy
    faster and more efficiently. ~90% of all the energy gain from global warming is into the
    oceans anyway.

    So what it's saying is that while it might temporarily reduce the rate of average temperature
    gain [while probably doing nothing to halt or delay climate change***] in the atmosphere.
    It does so by increasing total energy gain of the system.

    In short, just like the last so called 'pause' in global warming, it will in fact be nothing of the sort.


    **The Oceans.

    ***Climate change will continue unabated as while this might stop the average temps from increasing
    it does so by cooling a specific region as an offset to warming elsewhere.
    This last winter in the USA the national average temperature was about average.
    However this was achieved by having half the country in below average deep freeze, and the other half
    basked in a heatwave and drought... The energy gain in the system increases, the climate changes,
    but the average temp wasn't any higher.