The Freedom of Uncertainty
19 May '13 15:071 editAt the bottom of this post are some links to sites discussing the Dunning-Kruger effect—where people who are relatively less competent/knowledgeable about a subject tend to overestimate their own knowledge/competence, while the more knowledgeable/competent tend to underestimate that. Apparently, some education in logic and critical thinking can alleviate this tendency.
[I realize that people on this site often argue (and argue hard) as part of the learning process, and are thus quite willing to be shown that they are wrong. At least that has been the history over the years. And so the fact that one mounts an argument, even in an area where they have little expertise, is not necessarily a sign of the D-K effect in action.]
With that said, I came across this quote from Mark Twain:
“Education is the path from cocky ignorance to miserable uncertainty.” [https://www.facebook.com/pages/Dunning-Kruger-Effect/270951763040589]
Twain was, of course, a humorist. But I wonder if some people do not find uncertainty to be generally frightening and miserable? [Call that an “existential uncertainty”?] And, at least in some cases, sufficiently frightening and miserable as to lead to denial and self-deception—in overestimating one’s sureness and certainty?
—Note: I am really only interested in those “problem cases”; no doubt that uncertainty can be frightening in some cases without leading to any general existential “malaise”, or denial.
On the other hand, it seems to me that uncertainty can be freeing as well as challenging. It can spur ongoing inquiry, as well as continuing self-examination. And embracing “the freedom of uncertainty” can be a joyous affair.
—Note: I’m posting this on this forum, because it has been since its inception the de facto philosophical forum, as well as spiritual/religious discussion.
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From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect:
"The skills needed to produce logically sound arguments, for instance, are the same skills that are necessary to recognize when a logically sound argument has been made. Thus, if people lack the skills to produce correct answers, they are also cursed with an inability to know when their answers, or anyone else's, are right or wrong. They cannot recognize their responses as mistaken, or other people's responses as superior to their own."
And from http://reasonandlogic.wordpress.com/2011/11/08/dunning-kruger/:
“The ideal critical thinker is habitually inquisitive, well-informed, trustful of reason, open-minded, flexible, fair-minded in evaluation, honest in facing personal biases, prudent in making judgments, willing to reconsider, clear about issues, orderly in complex matters, diligent in seeking relevant information, reasonable in the selection of criteria, focused in inquiry, and persistent in seeking results which are as precise as the subject and the circumstances of inquiry permit.”
http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/evolved-primate/201006/when-ignorance-begets-confidence-the-classic-dunning-kruger-effect
http://www.apa.org/monitor/feb03/overestimate.aspx
[I realize that people on this site often argue (and argue hard) as part of the learning process, and are thus quite willing to be shown that they are wrong. At least that has been the history over the years. And so the fact that one mounts an argument, even in an area where they have little expertise, is not necessarily a sign of the D-K effect in action.]
With that said, I came across this quote from Mark Twain:
“Education is the path from cocky ignorance to miserable uncertainty.” [https://www.facebook.com/pages/Dunning-Kruger-Effect/270951763040589]
Twain was, of course, a humorist. But I wonder if some people do not find uncertainty to be generally frightening and miserable? [Call that an “existential uncertainty”?] And, at least in some cases, sufficiently frightening and miserable as to lead to denial and self-deception—in overestimating one’s sureness and certainty?
—Note: I am really only interested in those “problem cases”; no doubt that uncertainty can be frightening in some cases without leading to any general existential “malaise”, or denial.
On the other hand, it seems to me that uncertainty can be freeing as well as challenging. It can spur ongoing inquiry, as well as continuing self-examination. And embracing “the freedom of uncertainty” can be a joyous affair.
—Note: I’m posting this on this forum, because it has been since its inception the de facto philosophical forum, as well as spiritual/religious discussion.
____________________________________________________________________
From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect:
"The skills needed to produce logically sound arguments, for instance, are the same skills that are necessary to recognize when a logically sound argument has been made. Thus, if people lack the skills to produce correct answers, they are also cursed with an inability to know when their answers, or anyone else's, are right or wrong. They cannot recognize their responses as mistaken, or other people's responses as superior to their own."
And from http://reasonandlogic.wordpress.com/2011/11/08/dunning-kruger/:
“The ideal critical thinker is habitually inquisitive, well-informed, trustful of reason, open-minded, flexible, fair-minded in evaluation, honest in facing personal biases, prudent in making judgments, willing to reconsider, clear about issues, orderly in complex matters, diligent in seeking relevant information, reasonable in the selection of criteria, focused in inquiry, and persistent in seeking results which are as precise as the subject and the circumstances of inquiry permit.”
http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/evolved-primate/201006/when-ignorance-begets-confidence-the-classic-dunning-kruger-effect
http://www.apa.org/monitor/feb03/overestimate.aspx
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