The Freedom of Uncertainty

At the bottom of this post are some links to sites discussing the Dunning-Kruger effect—where people who are relatively less competent/knowledgeable about a subject tend to overestimate their own knowledge/competence, while the more knowledgeable/competent tend to underestimate that. Apparently, some education in logic and critical thinking can alleviate this tendency.

[I realize that people on this site often argue (and argue hard) as part of the learning process, and are thus quite willing to be shown that they are wrong. At least that has been the history over the years. And so the fact that one mounts an argument, even in an area where they have little expertise, is not necessarily a sign of the D-K effect in action.]

With that said, I came across this quote from Mark Twain:

“Education is the path from cocky ignorance to miserable uncertainty.” [https://www.facebook.com/pages/Dunning-Kruger-Effect/270951763040589]

Twain was, of course, a humorist. But I wonder if some people do not find uncertainty to be generally frightening and miserable? [Call that an “existential uncertainty”?] And, at least in some cases, sufficiently frightening and miserable as to lead to denial and self-deception—in overestimating one’s sureness and certainty?

—Note: I am really only interested in those “problem cases”; no doubt that uncertainty can be frightening in some cases without leading to any general existential “malaise”, or denial.

On the other hand, it seems to me that uncertainty can be freeing as well as challenging. It can spur ongoing inquiry, as well as continuing self-examination. And embracing “the freedom of uncertainty” can be a joyous affair.

—Note: I’m posting this on this forum, because it has been since its inception the de facto philosophical forum, as well as spiritual/religious discussion.

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From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect:

"The skills needed to produce logically sound arguments, for instance, are the same skills that are necessary to recognize when a logically sound argument has been made. Thus, if people lack the skills to produce correct answers, they are also cursed with an inability to know when their answers, or anyone else's, are right or wrong. They cannot recognize their responses as mistaken, or other people's responses as superior to their own."

And from http://reasonandlogic.wordpress.com/2011/11/08/dunning-kruger/:

“The ideal critical thinker is habitually inquisitive, well-informed, trustful of reason, open-minded, flexible, fair-minded in evaluation, honest in facing personal biases, prudent in making judgments, willing to reconsider, clear about issues, orderly in complex matters, diligent in seeking relevant information, reasonable in the selection of criteria, focused in inquiry, and persistent in seeking results which are as precise as the subject and the circumstances of inquiry permit.”

http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/evolved-primate/201006/when-ignorance-begets-confidence-the-classic-dunning-kruger-effect

http://www.apa.org/monitor/feb03/overestimate.aspx

Originally posted by vistesd
At the bottom of this post are some links to sites discussing the Dunning-Kruger effect—where people who are relatively less competent/knowledgeable about a subject tend to overestimate their own knowledge/competence, while the more knowledgeable/competent tend to underestimate that. Apparently, some education in logic and critical thinking can alleviate th ...[text shortened]... ence-the-classic-dunning-kruger-effect

http://www.apa.org/monitor/feb03/overestimate.aspx

For all your religious fervour, you may rant and rave.
But I am here to tell you, there is nothing beyond the grave.
Try to help one another while on this earth you dwell,
for there is nothing later, after your funeral bell.

Originally posted by johnnylongwoody
For all your religious fervour, you may rant and rave.
But I am here to tell you, there is nothing beyond the grave.
Try to help one another while on this earth you dwell,
for there is nothing later, after your funeral bell.

Originally posted by johnnylongwoody
For all your religious fervour, you may rant and rave.
But I am here to tell you, there is nothing beyond the grave.
Try to help one another while on this earth you dwell,
for there is nothing later, after your funeral bell.

Originally posted by johnnylongwoody
For all your religious fervour, you may rant and rave.
But I am here to tell you, there is nothing beyond the grave.
Try to help one another while on this earth you dwell,
for there is nothing later, after your funeral bell.

Originally posted by vistesd
At the bottom of this post are some links to sites discussing the Dunning-Kruger effect—where people who are relatively less competent/knowledgeable about a subject tend to overestimate their own knowledge/competence, while the more knowledgeable/competent tend to underestimate that. Apparently, some education in logic and critical thinking can alleviate th ...[text shortened]... ence-the-classic-dunning-kruger-effect

http://www.apa.org/monitor/feb03/overestimate.aspx

Originally posted by whodey
How would you rate Jesus?

Thanks visted, and warm greetings. Much appreciated.

"He who does not expect will not find out the unexpected, for it is trackless and unexplored." Heraclitus

When doubt builds to a fever pitch and we are all fear,
seeking frantically for a way out, the way in can suddenly appear. Mu!

The uncertainty of life frightens some people into more comfortable, reassuring gatherings where the definite "answer" for all the unknowns is offered.
Neither reductionist science nor fundamentalist religion like uncertainty and both rush to put everything into its "place" far too quickly, and far too definitely. Doubt is allowed to freely 'hang around' in mature religion and open, searching science.

Originally posted by Taoman
The uncertainty of life frightens some people into more comfortable, reassuring gatherings where the definite "answer" for all the unknowns is offered.
Neither reductionist science nor fundamentalist religion like uncertainty and both rush to put everything into its "place" far too quickly, and far too definitely. Doubt is allowed to freely 'hang around' in mature religion and open, searching science.

Originally posted by vistesd
More on point to the thread topic: how do you rate whodey?

Originally posted by vistesd
At the bottom of this post are some links to sites discussing the Dunning-Kruger effect—where people who are relatively less competent/knowledgeable about a subject tend to overestimate their own knowledge/competence, while the more knowledgeable/competent tend to underestimate that. Apparently, some education in logic and critical thinking can alleviate th ...[text shortened]... ence-the-classic-dunning-kruger-effect

http://www.apa.org/monitor/feb03/overestimate.aspx

Originally posted by rwingett
We have the greatest number of experts and specialists that the world has ever seen, but this reductionist approach to problem solving leaves us no better off while removing more and more people from the decision making process. The Amish, for example, stop formal education after the 8th grade. But they have managed to create a more just world than all the experts combined.

Originally posted by Suzianne
I think much of the success of the Amish has to be that they put much value, as should we all, in informal education.

Just because they stop formal education after the 8th grade doesn't mean that they stop learning. Most choose a life path, such as farming, or blacksmithing, and dedicate their entire lives to learning their craft.