1. Joined
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    27 Apr '13 20:27
    For people on both sides who think about miracles and prophesies:

    http://www.radiolab.org/people/laura-buxton/

    There is a "listen" button and a "download" button. The segment is the first 20 minutes or so. Try a listen for a few minutes until you know why I'm recommending it to such people as described above, and decide if it's for you.

    The full hour has to do with related things.
  2. Joined
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    27 Apr '13 20:37
    Originally posted by JS357
    For people on both sides who think about miracles and prophesies:

    http://www.radiolab.org/people/laura-buxton/

    There is a "listen" button and a "download" button. The segment is the first 20 minutes or so. Try a listen for a few minutes until you know why I'm recommending it to such people as described above, and decide if it's for you.

    The full hour has to do with related things.
    is this the balloon lady, laura buxton? i cant listen at the moment due to my missus watching 'the voice'😞 but i think i know the story
  3. Joined
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    27 Apr '13 20:51
    Originally posted by stellspalfie
    is this the balloon lady, laura buxton? i cant listen at the moment due to my missus watching 'the voice'😞 but i think i know the story
    That's her. Them.

    The story is rather dry when read about. The Radiolab report is riveting and goes into explanations of how's and why's.
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    27 Apr '13 21:11
    Originally posted by JS357
    That's her. Them.

    The story is rather dry when read about. The Radiolab report is riveting and goes into explanations of how's and why's.
    does it look at the statistical odds it happening?
  5. Standard memberKepler
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    27 Apr '13 21:16
    Originally posted by stellspalfie
    does it look at the statistical odds it happening?
    It is interesting so far. A discussion of how random events can appear miraculous and how humans aren't very good at imagining randomness.
  6. Joined
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    27 Apr '13 21:28
    Originally posted by Kepler
    It is interesting so far. A discussion of how random events can appear miraculous and how humans aren't very good at imagining randomness.
    have you ever listened to the infinite monkey cage? they did a brilliant episode on coincidence,random events and statistical odds. made me feel a bit thick, but pushed me to back into studying a bit of maths.
  7. Standard memberKepler
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    27 Apr '13 21:36
    Originally posted by stellspalfie
    have you ever listened to the infinite monkey cage? they did a brilliant episode on coincidence,random events and statistical odds. made me feel a bit thick, but pushed me to back into studying a bit of maths.
    That's one I must look up some time. Probability is something I find fascinating.
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    27 Apr '13 21:50
    Originally posted by Kepler
    That's one I must look up some time. Probability is something I find fascinating.
    it is fascinating. especially as we as humans seem to struggle with it so much. they do this thing where they look at how many people do you need before to make it probable that you will get two with the same birthday and most people predict that you will need 183 or something like that, but the correct answer is around 20, still blows my tiny mind.
  9. Standard memberKepler
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    27 Apr '13 21:57
    Originally posted by stellspalfie
    it is fascinating. especially as we as humans seem to struggle with it so much. they do this thing where they look at how many people do you need before to make it probable that you will get two with the same birthday and most people predict that you will need 183 or something like that, but the correct answer is around 20, still blows my tiny mind.
    20 is about right. I play that game with my own students. Works well. We aren't very good at seeing that random things are random and we aren't very good at predicting what randomness looks like.
  10. Standard memberRJHinds
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    27 Apr '13 22:122 edits
    Originally posted by stellspalfie
    it is fascinating. especially as we as humans seem to struggle with it so much. they do this thing where they look at how many people do you need before to make it probable that you will get two with the same birthday and most people predict that you will need 183 or something like that, but the correct answer is around 20, still blows my tiny mind.
    Maybe, that is why you guys don't believe in the creation of the heavens and the earth and life forms by God, because you think it could all easily happen by random chance and the random chance of natural selection. Just add enough time, like billions of years, which we don't have anyway. Does this sound familiar?
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    27 Apr '13 22:18
    Originally posted by Kepler
    20 is about right. I play that game with my own students. Works well. We aren't very good at seeing that random things are random and we aren't very good at predicting what randomness looks like.
    do you teach maths?
  12. Joined
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    27 Apr '13 23:081 edit
    Originally posted by stellspalfie
    does it look at the statistical odds it happening?
    They don't do the math. That would be like the Drake equation (too many guesses at probability). But later in a more quantifiable example, they cover the idea that seemingly unlikely coincidences are very likely to occur, given enough opportunities.
  13. Standard memberavalanchethecat
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    28 Apr '13 08:59
    Originally posted by Kepler
    20 is about right. I play that game with my own students. Works well. We aren't very good at seeing that random things are random and we aren't very good at predicting what randomness looks like.
    It's about 50% at around 20 or 21 as I recall. And then about 90% at double that.
  14. Standard memberKepler
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    28 Apr '13 11:37
    Originally posted by stellspalfie
    do you teach maths?
    Maths, physics, statistics. Occasionally they let me do some real research as well.
  15. Standard memberKepler
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    28 Apr '13 11:44
    Originally posted by avalanchethecat
    It's about 50% at around 20 or 21 as I recall. And then about 90% at double that.
    23 gets you 50.7%, 50 gets you 97% and so on. So don't do as I do and bet on 20 or 21! I always make sure to use loaded dice, I refer to my students' records to find out whether or not any of them do share a birthday!
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