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  1. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    03 Oct '12 22:52
    The A's are hammering the Rangers and seem to be on their way to an improbable come from behind run to win the AL West. According to USAToday, they have the second smallest payroll in baseball.http://content.usatoday.com/sportsdata/baseball/mlb/salaries/team

    In fact there seems little correlation this year between player salaries and team performance. 5 playoff teams were in the top 9 in salary, but 5 others were in the bottom half of player salary spent. Overall, the average playoff team was 13th in average salary.

    whodey's Theorem seems to have had a rough 2012.
  2. Subscriber shortcircuit
    The Energizer
    04 Oct '12 00:48 / 3 edits
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    The A's are hammering the Rangers and seem to be on their way to an improbable come from behind run to win the AL West. According to USAToday, they have the second smallest payroll in baseball.http://content.usatoday.com/sportsdata/baseball/mlb/salaries/team

    In fact there seems little correlation this year between player salaries and team per ...[text shortened]... eam was 13th in average salary.

    whodey's Theorem seems to have had a rough 2012.
    If you look at the list of teams that made the playoffs, 5 of the 10 teams were in the
    bottom half of the salary structure, and 5 from the top half. There is actually an
    interesting spreads here.

    Ranking the playoff teams by salary with 1 being the lowest salary and 30 being the highest,
    you produce the following:

    2 Oakland
    11 Washington
    12 Baltimore
    14 Cincinnati
    15 Atlanta
    22 St. Louis
    23 San Francisco
    25 Texas
    26 Detroit
    30 NY Yankees

    Yes, it does appear that money can't buy you the playoffs.

    EDIT

    Also notice there is a 65 million dollar gap between the Yankees and the Tigers, while there is only a 77 million dollar gap between the Tigers and the A's.
    This produces a median of 126 million dollars that has only the Yankees and Tigers above
    the median.
  3. 04 Oct '12 02:04
    Originally posted by shortcircuit
    If you look at the list of teams that made the playoffs, 5 of the 10 teams were in the
    bottom half of the salary structure, and 5 from the top half. There is actually an
    interesting spreads here.

    Ranking the playoff teams by salary with 1 being the lowest salary and 30 being the highest,
    you produce the following:

    2 Oakland
    11 Washington
    12 ...[text shortened]... duces a median of 126 million dollars that has only the Yankees and Tigers above
    the median.
    "That has only the Yankees and Tigers above the median."

    This little facet would support whodey's theory.

    I don't think anybody can deny that the amount of money spent correlates with the probability of making it to the playoffs. You may not see that when looking at one season but I wonder what the statistics are from the last 25 years? I also wonder what the correlation is between the salary of the coaching staff and the probability of making the playoffs.
  4. Subscriber shortcircuit
    The Energizer
    04 Oct '12 02:36
    Originally posted by tomtom232
    "That has only the Yankees and Tigers above the median."

    This little facet would support whodey's theory.

    I don't think anybody can deny that the amount of money spent correlates with the probability of making it to the playoffs. You may not see that when looking at one season but I wonder what the statistics are from the last 25 years? I also wonder ...[text shortened]... tion is between the salary of the coaching staff and the probability of making the playoffs.
    No, whodey's theory said the bulk of the playoff teams would be in the top half of the
    top team salaries, and here we have only 2 out of 10 and one of those two was barely
    above the median.

    This blows whodey's theory out of the water.

    He expected Boston, Philadelphia, NY Yankees, LA Angels, LA Dodgers to make it.
    Only one did.
  5. Standard member uzless
    The So Fist
    22 Oct '12 15:27
    Originally posted by shortcircuit
    No, whodey's theory said the bulk of the playoff teams would be in the top half of the
    top team salaries, and here we have only 2 out of 10 and one of those two was barely
    above the median.

    This blows whodey's theory out of the water.

    He expected Boston, Philadelphia, NY Yankees, LA Angels, LA Dodgers to make it.
    Only one did.
    One season proves nothing. Look at the last several years and you'll see how the odds improve if you are a high salary team.

    There have been threads in the past where i've broken it down by salary and teams making the playoffs.

    It's overwhelmingly in support of high salary teams making the playoffs.

    Geez!!
  6. Standard member uzless
    The So Fist
    22 Oct '12 15:58 / 3 edits
    No. Team Payroll
    1. New York Yankees $197,962,289
    2. Philadelphia Phillies $174,538,938
    3. Boston Red Sox $173,186,617
    4. Los Angeles Angels $154,485,166
    5. Detroit Tigers $132,300,000
    6. Texas Rangers $120,510,974
    7. Miami Marlins $118,078,000
    8. San Francisco Giants $117,620,683
    9. St. Louis Cardinals $110,300,862
    10. Milwaukee Brewers $97,653,944
    11. Chicago White Sox $96,919,500
    12. Los Angeles Dodgers $95,143,575
    13. Minnesota Twins $94,085,000
    14. New York Mets $93,353,983
    15. Chicago Cubs $88,197,033
    16. Atlanta Braves $83,309,942
    17. Cincinnati Reds $83,309,942
    18. Seattle Mariners $81,978,100
    19. Baltimore Orioles $81,428,999
    20. Washington Nationals $81,336,143
    21. Cleveland Indians $78,430,300
    22. Colorado Rockies $78,069,571
    23. Toronto Blue Jays $75,489,200
    24. Arizona Diamondback$74,284,833
    25. Tampa Bay Rays $64,173,500
    26. Pittsburgh Pirates $63,431,999
    27. Kansas City Royals $60,916,225
    28. Houston Astros $60,651,000
    29. Oakland Athletics $55,372,500
    30. San Diego Padres $55,244,700
  7. Standard member uzless
    The So Fist
    22 Oct '12 16:05 / 1 edit
    Simple math, even one that you guys can understand.

    5 of the top 9 salary teams made the playoffs.

    In other words, if you are in the top 9 you have better than a 50% chance of getting into the playoffs.

    5 of the remaining 21 teams made the playoffs.

    In other words if you are not in the top 9, you have less than a 25% chance of making the playoffs.

    And if you are in the bottom 10 of salaries, you have a 10% chance of making the playoffs.

    I'm always amazed at how people can look at stats and not understand them.

  8. Subscriber no1marauder
    It's Nice to Be Nice
    22 Oct '12 17:17 / 2 edits
    Originally posted by uzless
    Simple math, even one that you guys can understand.

    5 of the top 9 salary teams made the playoffs.

    [b]In other words, if you are in the top 9 you have better than a 50% chance of getting into the playoffs.


    5 of the remaining 21 teams made the playoffs.

    [/b]In other words if you are not in the top 9, you have less than a 25% chance of making th ...[text shortened]... e playoffs.

    I'm always amazed at how people can look at stats and not understand them.

    [/b]
    That's nice cherry picking. One can also say that 5 of the top 15 in salary made the playoffs as did 5 in the bottom 15 according to the figures given.

    Can you understand that? That's "simple math", too.

    I don't think anyone has claimed that there is no relationship between average salary and performance and it would be counterintutive if it were otherwise. Nonetheless, there is enough variance in performance to say that salary is hardly a determinative factor in baseball.
  9. Subscriber shortcircuit
    The Energizer
    22 Oct '12 18:42
    Originally posted by uzless
    Simple math, even one that you guys can understand.

    5 of the top 9 salary teams made the playoffs.

    [b]In other words, if you are in the top 9 you have better than a 50% chance of getting into the playoffs.


    5 of the remaining 21 teams made the playoffs.

    In other words if you are not in the top 9, you have less than a 25% chance of making the ...[text shortened]... e playoffs.

    I'm always amazed at how people can look at stats and not understand them.

    The next to lowest payroll made the playoffs
    three of the botton 12 made it
    5 of the bottom 15 made it
    5 of the top 15 made it.

    If you take simple math and say, take ANY salary and you have a 50% chance of
    making the playoffs.

    I am amazed at how many ways you can skew statistics and make a valid argument.
  10. 23 Oct '12 03:24 / 1 edit
    The last time a low market team won a world series was in 2003. How is that for cherry picking? LOL.

    MLB is for tards.
  11. 23 Oct '12 03:26
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    That's nice cherry picking. One can also say that 5 of the top 15 in salary made the playoffs as did 5 in the bottom 15 according to the figures given.

    Can you understand that? That's "simple math", too.

    I don't think anyone has claimed that there is no relationship between average salary and performance and it would be counte ...[text shortened]... gh variance in performance to say that salary is hardly a determinative factor in baseball.
    Can you also understand that the more money you pay out the greater chance that you will have a winning season, thus positioning you to make the playoffs?

    Thank God for the token small market teams that make the playoffs. It helps ease the big market guilt I suppose.
  12. Subscriber shortcircuit
    The Energizer
    23 Oct '12 22:42
    Originally posted by whodey
    The last time a low market team won a world series was in 2003. How is that for cherry picking? LOL.

    MLB is for tards.
    How in the world did they manage to do it??

    Did they cheat?
    Did they not realize they were treading on sacred ground?
    The fact that it can happen at all hammers your theory.
  13. 26 Oct '12 21:32 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by no1marauder
    That's nice cherry picking. One can also say that 5 of the top 15 in salary made the playoffs as did 5 in the bottom 15 according to the figures given.

    Can you understand that? That's "simple math", too.

    I don't think anyone has claimed that there is no relationship between average salary and performance and it would be counte ...[text shortened]... gh variance in performance to say that salary is hardly a determinative factor in baseball.
    Ok five of the top ten made it, four from the middle ten and one from the bottom ten.... there is definitely a correlation here which is probably amplified over the course of a decade.
  14. 26 Oct '12 21:35
    Originally posted by shortcircuit
    No, whodey's theory said the bulk of the playoff teams would be in the top half of the
    top team salaries, and here we have only 2 out of 10 and one of those two was barely
    above the median.

    This blows whodey's theory out of the water.

    He expected Boston, Philadelphia, NY Yankees, LA Angels, LA Dodgers to make it.
    Only one did.
    How? Both teams above the median made it to the playoffs. This would mean that they effectively bought a playoff spot.
  15. 28 Oct '12 21:18
    Originally posted by tomtom232
    How? Both teams above the median made it to the playoffs. This would mean that they effectively bought a playoff spot.
    And the others... were they given it for free?

    It's nice to be able to spend money, like a lot of sports worldwide but it doesn't guarantee success. Poor management structure and a lack of cohesion between players will get crusted against a well organized low sending team who are more worried about winning the game than anything else.