Greatest Sports Event Evah!~

Originally posted by trev33
i wouldn't have done it in the playoffs but now when it didn't really matter it was worth it imo. like darvs quote says above, it sends a pretty strong message to the pats defense. it's good to see a bit of gambling in professional sport every so often, and tbh you don't see a lot of it in the nfl.

I guess YOU have no idea how important this game was. It was NE's only chance to get a top seed in playoffs. It WAS the playoffs.

Now WHEN these two teams play again it will be with Indy at home.

NE had a better chance to stop a 65 yard drive than 29 yards.

It was a stupid decision.

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Rodney Harrison on Belichick's move:

The worst coaching decision I've ever seen Bill Belichick make.

Originally posted by Phlabibit
I guess YOU have no idea how important this game was. It was NE's only chance to get a top seed in playoffs. It WAS the playoffs.

Now WHEN these two teams play again it will be with Indy at home.

NE had a better chance to stop a 65 yard drive than 29 yards.

It was a stupid decision.

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didn't indy and ne used to be in the same division and no one cared about the games? it's only hyped up now because they've been the best two teams in the nfl for the past 10 years, in 20 years time no one will care then they play each other.

one play 2 yards and one of the best offenses in the league to win a game or give the BEST offense in the league the ball with 2 minutes left to steal it from them? hhmmm

Originally posted by trev33
didn't indy and ne used to be in the same division and no one cared about the games? it's only hyped up now because they've been the best two teams in the nfl for the past 10 years, in 20 years time no one will care then they play each other.

one play 2 yards and one of the best offenses in the league to win a game or give the BEST offense in the league the ball with 2 minutes left to steal it from them? hhmmm

A. Indy is not the best offense in the league. They are not even in the Top 3 in scoring so far this year.

B. If 2 yards is so easy to get why do any teams punt in the first place?

C. In 20 years people will care about New England v. Indy. Both organizations are extremely well run from the top and, even when Brady and Manning are retired, should still be two of the best teams. Much like the Steelers, the Giants, and other teams that have exceptional management.

Originally posted by trev33
didn't indy and ne used to be in the same division and no one cared about the games? it's only hyped up now because they've been the best two teams in the nfl for the past 10 years, in 20 years time no one will care then they play each other.

one play 2 yards and one of the best offenses in the league to win a game or give the BEST offense in the league the ball with 2 minutes left to steal it from them? hhmmm

Read what Darv wrote...

Read what I wrote, when I told you to stick to that 'skid and trip' game you folks call football.

I'm starting to understand why you guys enjoy a game that ends with 1 or 3 scores at most, you'd be totally LOST if they were scoring more than 5 in a game and would totally lose track of what's going on.

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Originally posted by Phlabibit
Read what Darv wrote...

Read what I wrote, when I told you to stick to that 'skid and trip' game you folks call football.

I'm starting to understand why you guys enjoy a game that ends with 1 or 3 scores at most, you'd be totally LOST if they were scoring more than 5 in a game and would totally lose track of what's going on.

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Leave him alone, Phlab. He's a western wannabe -- you can't blame him for that. He just wants to talk about the cool sports with the cool guys!

"Anyone see that cracking nil-nil draw between Levingtonson and Birmiswipshire? The excitement was too much for me, I just had to bag my urine and throw it onto the pitch!"

Originally posted by Phlabibit
Read what Darv wrote...

Read what I wrote, when I told you to stick to that 'skid and trip' game you folks call football.

I'm starting to understand why you guys enjoy a game that ends with 1 or 3 scores at most, you'd be totally LOST if they were scoring more than 5 in a game and would totally lose track of what's going on.

P-

lol u funny.

this is football where i come from - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaelic_football

Originally posted by trev33
lol u funny.

this is football where i come from - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaelic_football

How is that word said? Gay Lick?

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Originally posted by Phlabibit
How is that word said? Gay Lick?

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close enough 😵

Originally posted by trev33
close enough 😵

It might also be the way I says 'garlic' here in RI.

Originally posted by darvlay
What was Belicheat thinking going for it on 4th & 2 at their own 30 against the Colts?? Stupidest call I've seen all year regardless of what Tom thinks:

"I love the call," Tom Brady said. "I love the fact that we’re out there with a chance to win. The coach has confidence that we can make it. I had confidence. We all did." Despite the lambasting h that Belichick's decision gave his team the best chance to win in that situation.

here was the reasoning from advancednflstats.com

1. converting 4th and 2 is successful 60% of the time
2. a team at the opponent's 28 yd line with 2:00 left and needing a TD to win/tie get that TD half the time (53% )
3. a team at their own 34 yd line gets that TD 30% of the time (the Colts would've been at the 34 following an average punt play from the 28 yd line)

by going for it, the result is that the Pats win the game 79% of the time -- by punting, the Pats win the game only 70% of the time. The math is very clear. Belichek is a smart guy, and he was probably very aware of these sorts of stats when he made his decision.

Amidst the almost UNANIMOUS chorus of critics opposing Belichek's decision, I have heard no one make an argument based on the actual data. Everyone just uses their "instincts" even though the data shows that those instincts in this case are very likely wrong.

I suspect the problem is that most people think that the chance of scoring a TD from the opposing team's 28 yard line is a lot higher than 53%, and the chance of hitting paydirt from their own 34 is a lot less than 30%.

You hear arguments like, "they just handed the Colts the touchdown" (as if it was an 80% chance or better) -- versus "the Colts would've had to go the WHOLE length of the field" (as if it was maybe a 15% chance at best). Or perhaps most people assume that an average punt sticks the Colts on their own 20 or worse (instead of the 34).

Originally posted by Melanerpes
here was the reasoning from advancednflstats.com

1. converting 4th and 2 is successful 60% of the time
2. a team at the opponent's 28 yd line with 2:00 left and needing a TD to win/tie get that TD half the time (53% )
3. a team at their own 34 yd line gets that TD 30% of the time (the Colts would've been at the 34 following an average punt play from ...[text shortened]... e that an average punt sticks the Colts on their own 20 or worse (instead of the 34).

I wonder if we have the right stats and all the necessary stats.
First of all, this isn't an average 4th and two conversion. It is a conversion that basically ends the game. Many fourth and two are in situations where the defensive team will give up a first down if it means staying in bounce and the clock runs or if it is a team only fears a huge play and is willing to give up three yeards even though it is fourth down. Strategy is just completely different if the defensive team is up more than one score with one minute left or if it is 4th and two but there are six seconds left.
Secondly, are the two minute stats with no time outs? Two minutes and three time outs is a lot more difficult than two minutes with no time outs.
Third part of deciding to go for it on fourth down is effected by your third down decision. If the Patriots ran on third down and made it fourth and one (with less time on the clock) how does that change the percentages?
If you want to look at stats and I actually am interested, I want to make sure we have the right ones.