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  1. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    25 Apr '12 20:38
    Sorry, but it has to be said.

    Who wins the Cup is usually more a product of luck than of any other factor. Bounces of the puck are so random and the scoring is so low that a team can be severely outplayed and still win.

    Does anyone who watched game 6 CHI-PHX the other night really want to argue with a straight face that Phoenix was the better team? The Devils totally dominated Florida last night and came within inches of losing in the first minute of OT last night. Is LA really a better team than Vancouver? No. Really? Put those exact same two teams on the ice for an 80 game season starting tomorrow and how much would you plunk down on LA finishing with a better record?

    That's what I though.
  2. 27 Apr '12 19:29
    Originally posted by sh76
    Sorry, but it has to be said.

    Who wins the Cup is usually more a product of luck than of any other factor. Bounces of the puck are so random and the scoring is so low that a team can be severely outplayed and still win.

    Does anyone who watched game 6 CHI-PHX the other night really want to argue with a straight face that Phoenix was the better team? The De ...[text shortened]... d how much would you plunk down on LA finishing with a better record?

    That's what I though.
    Phoenix won by solid goalkeeping. LA plays a rugged game that suits the playoffs and they also have top flight goalkeeping.

    Its a different game in the playoffs. I predict LA to win it all, but I favor the Coyotes since I live in the Phoenix area.
  3. 28 Apr '12 14:04
    Originally posted by badmoon
    Phoenix won by solid goalkeeping. LA plays a rugged game that suits the playoffs and they also have top flight goalkeeping.

    Its a different game in the playoffs. I predict LA to win it all, but I favor the Coyotes since I live in the Phoenix area.
    I agree luck fugures somewhat, but you have to press on the attack to create those "luck" chances! Indeed Coyotes played an excellent match last night. Luck figures strongly in every sport hence the saying "I'd rather be lucky than good". The incredible athleticism required to create "luck" is awesome to behold! Coyotes have an awesome goalie!
  4. Subscriber Pariah325
    Knife Wielder
    29 Apr '12 21:23
    LA dominated Vancouver. No luck needed. The better playing team won there. Maybe if they played 80 times, Vancouver wins the majority, but they couldn't even get them to play seven times...
  5. 30 Apr '12 04:48
    Playoffs are not luck. That is why there is the best of 7 format, you might win one game because of a lucky bounce but you aren't going to get lucky 4 times.
  6. 17 May '12 19:50
    Exactly what the poster above me said. You can get lucky once or maybe even twice but you just cant get lucky to win 4 games in a 7 game series!
  7. Standard member uzless
    The So Fist
    23 May '12 17:09
    Originally posted by sh76
    Sorry, but it has to be said.

    Who wins the Cup is usually more a product of luck than of any other factor. Bounces of the puck are so random and the scoring is so low that a team can be severely outplayed and still win.

    Does anyone who watched game 6 CHI-PHX the other night really want to argue with a straight face that Phoenix was the better team? The De ...[text shortened]... d how much would you plunk down on LA finishing with a better record?

    That's what I though.
    You make several presumptions in your argument that result in a simple explanation that has nothing to do with luck.

    First, luck is not what you define it as. To fit your argument, each team would have to be equally matched and have the exact same number of good scoring chances. Luck would then determine the winner by way of a lucky bounce or two.

    Clearly, this is not the case as you outline that one team dominated the other but still lost. You arbitrarily attribute this to luck.

    A better analysis would recognize there are many many factors that go into a seemingly dominate team losing the game that don't necessarily rely on luck.

    To illustrate this point simply, ask yourself why a team that outshoots their opponent 30-9 can still lose? Is it luck? Or is it the other teams' goalie just played better? You seem to discount superstar performances deriving from skill and instead atribute a superstar performance to luck. For shame. Such intellectual laziness has no place in sports!

    I could go on and on, but the ADD afflicted would complain silently and move on without reading.

    Suffice to say, chance favours the prepared mind...and in sports, chance favours the prepared team. And sometimes, chance has nothing to do with it.
  8. Standard member RBHILL
    Acts 13:48
    23 May '12 21:51
    Originally posted by uzless
    You make several presumptions in your argument that result in a simple explanation that has nothing to do with luck.

    First, luck is not what you define it as. To fit your argument, each team would have to be equally matched and have the exact same number of good scoring chances. Luck would then determine the winner by way of a lucky bounce or two.

    Cle ...[text shortened]... in sports, chance favours the prepared team. And sometimes, chance has nothing to do with it.
    I hope that LA wins this year.
  9. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    24 May '12 00:43
    Originally posted by uzless
    You make several presumptions in your argument that result in a simple explanation that has nothing to do with luck.

    First, luck is not what you define it as. To fit your argument, each team would have to be equally matched and have the exact same number of good scoring chances. Luck would then determine the winner by way of a lucky bounce or two.

    Cle ...[text shortened]... in sports, chance favours the prepared team. And sometimes, chance has nothing to do with it.
    All you're saying is that the team who plays better has a better chance of winning.

    Of course that's true, but the team that plays worse also has a good chance to win, which inherently means that luck has a significant role.
  10. 24 May '12 01:18
    Originally posted by sh76
    All you're saying is that the team who plays better has a better chance of winning.

    Of course that's true, but the team that plays worse also has a good chance to win, which inherently means that luck has a significant role.
    He didn't say that at all.
  11. Standard member uzless
    The So Fist
    24 May '12 15:31
    Originally posted by Trev33
    He didn't say that at all.
    Ha, it was kind of the opposite of what i said....!! :->
  12. Standard member sh76
    Civis Americanus Sum
    24 May '12 16:33 / 1 edit
    Originally posted by uzless
    Ha, it was kind of the opposite of what i said....!! :->
    Whatever. I'm not a cryptology major. But anyone who watches a lot of hockey sees pucks arbitrarily bouncing all over the place. Goalies make lucky saves with the knobs of their sticks or with their backsides while flopped on the ground. Pucks hit posts and bounce in or bounce out in a manner that's virtually random. Deflections that can't really be controlled randomly hit the goalie or randomly go in the net. Long shots that were headed wide bounce off defensemen's skates and in. Of course the more chances you create, the more likely you are to get goals, but the random aspect is heavy. In an 82 game season the random bounces tend to even up. But in a 7 game series? No way.
  13. Standard member RBHILL
    Acts 13:48
    12 Jun '12 16:27
    Originally posted by sh76
    Whatever. I'm not a cryptology major. But anyone who watches a lot of hockey sees pucks arbitrarily bouncing all over the place. Goalies make lucky saves with the knobs of their sticks or with their backsides while flopped on the ground. Pucks hit posts and bounce in or bounce out in a manner that's virtually random. Deflections that can't really be controlled ...[text shortened]... vy. In an 82 game season the random bounces tend to even up. But in a 7 game series? No way.
    Congrates to LA for winning their first championship.