Saw an interesting piece on the Fox weekly baseball show. The theory was that Glavine may well be the last pitcher to win 300 games. The reasons given were the changes in the pitching game. Such as 5 man rotations, managers using the bullpen early and often. There are maybe 5 pitchers who might, emphasis on might, make 300 wins. Among them were Randy Johnson (he'll never stay healthy enough in my opinion), Mike Mussina and Curt Schilling.
They gave an example with the younger pitchers...Roy Oswalt, who many consider to be a very fine pitcher. Not sure of the exact number of years but I believe they said that over the next ten years he'd have to average 19 wins a season to have a shot at winning 300. That just makes Glavine's, and the other 300 game winners, accomplishment, that much more amazing!
I agree we probably won't see any more 300 game winners at least in this generation. To me Randy Johnson has a better shot than a lot of the younger pitchers but he is definitely feeling the effect of age. Mussina is fading fast and the young pitchers just don't pitch enough. No one one 20 games last year and you need 15 years of winning more than anyone did to reach than goal or 20 year of winning 15 games and that is a lot harder than it sounds.
Unless the game changes again, we may never see another 300 game winner! Seventy years ago, relief pitchers were unheard of, the pitcher won or lost the game by himself. And rotations consisted of only 3 or 4 pitchers. I may be wrong, but the relief specialist didn't come into vogue until the 50's.
And that makes Glavine even more special because he pitched in the era of 5 man rotations and bullpens that started work in the fifth or sixth inning!!😲
I agree that we may never see a 300 game winner if pitchers are used the way they are today. But, I think the way pitchers are used could change over time. It seems possible to me that with a shortage of relief pitchers that some teams may actually go back to a 4 man rotation and hope to get 6 innings out of their best 4 pitchers and than have 6-8 relief pitchers and use the better ones when the game is close/ winnable. I also think it is possible that starters and relief pitchers become more interchangable as time goes on and that there could be a lot of guys who go three innings or so and the middle guy could get a lot of wins without pitching like a starter.
Originally posted by myteamtrulystinks I agree that we may never see a 300 game winner if pitchers are used the way they are today. But, I think the way pitchers are used could change over time. It seems possible to me that with a shortage of relief pitchers that some teams may actually go back to a 4 man rotation and hope to get 6 innings out of their best 4 pitchers and than have 6 ...[text shortened]... three innings or so and the middle guy could get a lot of wins without pitching like a starter.
But wouldn't that just spread the wins out even more across the whole staff? The way they coddle pitchers today, if a guy pitches 3 or more innings, the managers are reluctant to use him for another 3-5 days! And heaven forbid they get a hangnail...then it's off to the 15 day DL!!!
My idea was that is starters even when the aren't getting bombed don't go 5 then the win would go to a reliever. If you used 3 pitchers for instance, 4 innning, 4 inninning and 1 inning. You could have a middle pitcher getting wins coming in games primarily where he is winning. It would be very different but so are homerun totals compared to 25 years ago or save totals compared to a generation ago.
If we take everyone's darling, Johan Santana, for example, he would have to average 20 wins a season over the next 10 years. At the end of that span he'd be 38 and still need 11 wins! I just don't see it happening anytime soon. I'm curious as to who Darvlay thinks has a shot?
Originally posted by jvanhine its all about whoever has a long, consistant carrer.... a guy like felix hernandez could if he plays in his 40s
Hernandez needs to average 14.5 wins a season over the next 19 years! You are right in that they have to be consistent and they have to stay healthy, no lengthy stays on the DL and not too many stays on the DL.
Originally posted by darvlay Not many right now, but pitchers are still starting at a young age. The real trouble is staying healthy.
I think you've hit the nail right on the head.....staying healthy. Problem is, with the money clubs have invested in these guys, they err on the side of caution. Blister on his finger? Put him on the fifteen day DL. In the old days guys were scared for their pitching job and would pitch through that and many other ailments. Wouldn't think of saying anything to the manager.
Originally posted by Chaswray Hernandez needs to average 14.5 wins a season over the next 19 years! You are right in that they have to be consistent and they have to stay healthy, no lengthy stays on the DL and not too many stays on the DL.
I know felix hernandez is talented and young but he has 7 wins this year after winning 12 games in 31 starts last year. He was on the DL this year. Just seems very premature to pick him. I'd like to see him go over 14.5 wins once in his career before we start projecting him out.
Originally posted by myteamtrulystinks I know felix hernandez is talented and young but he has 7 wins this year after winning 12 games in 31 starts last year. He was on the DL this year. Just seems very premature to pick him. I'd like to see him go over 14.5 wins once in his career before we start projecting him out.
Will Glavine be the last to win 300?
06 Aug '07 15:48
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