Brexit and the end of the UK

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The deterrent to leave the UK remains the same, irrespective of our relationship with the EU. The average Scot will still vote (begrudgingly) to remain in the UK out of uncertainty about how an independent Scotland would function.

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It's possible, but I don't think it will play out that way.

In the last referendum, Scotland voted against independence by 55.3% to 44.7% and I suspect that the fear of being outside of the UK 'and' the EU will actually increase the vote to remain part of the UK. (Perhaps as high as 65% ).

Scotland does have some economic muscle, but as the IFS noted:

'Scotland is insulated from the consequences of its spending being higher than its tax revenues because the UK government hands Edinburgh a block grant each year that covers non-devolved items such as defence and social security. An independent Scotland would be responsible for its own finances and could not rely on North Sea revenues to balance the books. There would be pressure for taxes to go up and for spending to be cut...'

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That's true, which is why I speculate that around 35% of Scots will indeed vote for independence, irrespective of the risk to their economy. However, a majority 'will' be motivated by economic self-interest, and I don't blame them for that.

You may disagree, but the risk to Scotland outside of the UK is far greater than the risk to the UK outside of the EU.

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Do Trump, Brexit and Johnson demonstrate a willingness to try the unknown, a desire to walk a path less traveled, and if so, would that not suggest that Scottish Independence and Scexit may be less predictable than previously thought?

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If the countries at the core of the United Kingdom goes their separate ways, it may encourage those nations who as part of the Commonwealth still embrace a constitutional monarchy to consider times up and embrace a Republic instead.
As the Monarch becomes less and less important the public might become a bit more jaundiced in their view of whether they still serve any useful purpose.

@ghost-of-a-duke said
That's true, which is why I speculate that around 35% of Scots will indeed vote for independence, irrespective of the risk to their economy. However, a majority 'will' be motivated by economic self-interest, and I don't blame them for that.

You may disagree, but the risk to Scotland outside of the UK is far greater than the risk to the UK outside of the EU.

You're right.

The Scotts get more per head spent on them than any other part of the UK which is why if you live in Scottland University is free, hospital car parking is free ect. In England you have to pay for it.

@mghrn55 said
I think that the UK will have to do a better job of selling the UK than the EU did of selling the EU.
Turbulence ahead.

Turbulence ahead.. Are we going to have to send our spare guns again?

@ghost-of-a-duke said
It's possible, but I don't think it will play out that way.

In the last referendum, Scotland voted against independence by 55.3% to 44.7% and I suspect that the fear of being outside of the UK 'and' the EU will actually increase the vote to remain part of the UK. (Perhaps as high as 65% ).

I suspect you strongly underestimate the resentment felt in Scotland against the treatment they got after their last independence referendum. They decided to stick with Mother England - barely - and for their trust. were thoroughly slighted and dismissed, like the ginger-haired step-child they are to anyone south of Watford Gap.

I don't think they'll trust Westminster as much, next time. It wasn't quite a hair's breath, but still rather wobbly, in 2014; in 2021, the wobble could go the other way just on the smell of an angels' share.

@tobias9122 said
Turbulence ahead.. Are we going to have to send our spare guns again?

I'd rather prefer if you continued to use them on your own (and Vietnamese, and Syrian) grade schoolers, thank you very much.

@kmax87 said
If the countries at the core of the United Kingdom

You mean "country", I'm sure.

If not, you need an education.

@shallow-blue said
You mean "country", I'm sure.

If not, you need an education.

England Scotland and Wales, never were 3 separate countries at any time ever?