Originally posted by sh76Finally, Hillary can beat a 90 year old man in an election. LOL.
The last poll in Iowa (Monmouth) had Hillary up by 22 points. I think it's virtually impossible for Sanders to win Iowa. A narrow loss in Iowa followed by a win in NH may be the best he can hope for, which may be enough to get him back in the game.
Hillary also has a huge lead in endorsements. True, she also had a big endorsements lead in 2008, but Obama was the perfect insurgent candidate. Sanders is not really on the same level.
Originally posted by KunsooI've donated to the Bernie Sanders campaign several times now. Maybe up to $200, plus some bumper stickers and so on.
This article makes the case that he can (and will).
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/bernie-sanders-will-become-president_b_8780730.html
Most pundits and those of us with extensive experience watching these races would say otherwise. In fact most pundits, to whom this writer is responding, would say she has it in the bag.
I would say to the ...[text shortened]... ot my first choice. Nor my second. But she will probably be there come the January after next.
I hope he will win, of course. There is a conceivable path, though certainly the odds are against him. It's been said by others such as Nate Silver, I believe: the national polls don't mean anything right now. Just the early primary/caucus state polls matter, and even they aren't very predictive until you get into January.
Iowa is a caucus state, which plays to the strengths of the Bernie campaign's young, enthusiastic, energetic activist base. It is this base that makes Bernie's candidacy quite comparable to Obama's 2008 campaign. Caucus states are often hard to gauge with polls, but right now Bernie is within striking distance of winning Iowa. Winning narrowly in Iowa would be all it takes to create a national sensation that would buoy Bernie's numbers in other states. The big difference between Bernie and Obama in 2008, I think, is that while Obama won Iowa and then went on to lose New Hampshire, Bernie would likely also win New Hampshire should he win in Iowa. This is simply because New Hampshire is Bernie's backyard and he's already polling strongly there. Should that happen, the situation in states such as South Carolina, Nevada, and so on could change radically.
Media and social networks I think are having the effect of magnifying the significance of early primaries and caucuses -- and in fact are magnifying the impact of every little thing that happens in the nominating process of both political parties. Things "go viral" like they never used to a decade ago, so that predicting what happens in politics gets more and more like a study in chaos theory. So, if Bernie wins Iowa AND New Hampshire, well, I think a "viral" phenomenon could conceivably sweep Hillary off the map, or at least result in Bernie achieving lasting parity in the polls with her. In such a scenario, it may be that Hillary will only win on account of having more so-called superdelegates, which would be grievously unfortunate.
If Bernie loses, I still think he'll have done a lot of good. He helps to keep Hillary honest and energize the Democratic base. He's bringing the serious issues to the forefront, and he can help Hillary to win against whichever frothing fascist or theocrat the other-party-which-shall-remain-nameless nominates. I don't think Bernie should become Hillary's running mate should Hillary win the nomination, as he'd be more useful in the Senate.
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Originally posted by normbenignWouldn't someone who wants a Democrat to win prefer that the Democratic candidate faces a terribly weak candidate like Trump? Sanders could murder baby Jesus live on TV and he'd still beat Trump.
I think most Democrats could care less who Republicans nominate.
Of course, neither Trump nor Sanders will win the nomination (although Sanders has a small realistic chance).
Originally posted by RJHindsThe emails are yesterday's news. And as Bernie said, America is tired of hearing about the damned emails. Even Benghazi has been de-fanged. There's not much in the way of old news that can trip her up. But a win by Bernie in either IA or NH will make people sit up and take notice.
That depends on how much more comes out on her emails.
Originally posted by SuzianneI am not tired of hearing about them. She is not behind bars yet. 😏
The emails are yesterday's news. And as Bernie said, America is tired of hearing about the damned emails. Even Benghazi has been de-fanged. There's not much in the way of old news that can trip her up. But a win by Bernie in either IA or NH will make people sit up and take notice.
Originally posted by no1marauderI agree that Hillary's invincibility could tumble when actual voting starts.
This article confirms that Bernie has gotten very little media coverage: http://mediamatters.org/blog/2015/12/11/abc-world-news-tonight-has-devoted-less-than-on/207428
Whether that is ideologically based or not, it will surely be the case that victories by Sanders in Iowa and New Hampshire would compel greater coverage.
Originally posted by KazetNagorraTrump is way ahead in nationwide polls which typically mean nothing this early. In Iowa Cruz is about equal with him. Cruz is the more experienced electoral politician. In a marathon, anyone can run out to a big lead in the first five miles.
Wouldn't someone who wants a Democrat to win prefer that the Democratic candidate faces a terribly weak candidate like Trump? Sanders could murder baby Jesus live on TV and he'd still beat Trump.
Of course, neither Trump nor Sanders will win the nomination (although Sanders has a small realistic chance).
Originally posted by normbenignCruz is "the more experienced electoral politician" than Trump by virtue of running in one election.
Trump is way ahead in nationwide polls which typically mean nothing this early. In Iowa Cruz is about equal with him. Cruz is the more experienced electoral politician. In a marathon, anyone can run out to a big lead in the first five miles.
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Originally posted by SuzianneOf all the candidates in either party Bernie received the most new Twitter followers. I don't know if that means anything, but it's an interesting reaction to a Republican debate.
The emails are yesterday's news. And as Bernie said, America is tired of hearing about the damned emails. Even Benghazi has been de-fanged. There's not much in the way of old news that can trip her up. But a win by Bernie in either IA or NH will make people sit up and take notice.