10 Nov 09
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Next time you see one of those polls showing how terrible the US education system is (you know, the ones about how 68% of US children think we live on Mars and how 54% think Adolf Hitler was the first US President), keep this in mind: The "poll" results might very well have been conjured up from thin air by a polling firm hired by think tank with an agenda.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/real-oklahoma-students-ace-citizenship.html
10 Nov 09
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Originally posted by KazetNagorraBecause one poll was fabricated it indicates that this sort of thing can and does happen. As such, you may want to take a second look at any poll that delivers seemingly anomalous results and ask questions like:
So because one poll was probably fabricated they all were?
- Do the pollsters have an agenda?
- Is the pollster a reputable firm?
- Are there other polls that back up the data asserted in this poll?
Sometimes we see polls in newspapers or online and instantly assign them gospel status. (Wow; did you hear that 84% of Europeans think...?" )
The fact that one was made up indicates that maybe we should pause before assuming that all poll numbers thrown at us on a daily basis are legitimate.
10 Nov 09
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Originally posted by sh76http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/real-oklahoma-students-ace-citizenship.html
Next time you see one of those polls showing how terrible the US education system is (you know, the ones about how 68% of US children think we live on Mars and how 54% think Adolf Hitler was the first US President), keep this in mind: The "poll" results might very well have been conjured up from thin air by a polling firm hired by think tank with an agenda.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/real-oklahoma-students-ace-citizenship.html
Real Oklahoma Students Ace Citizenship Exam; Strategic Vision Survey Was Likely Fabricated
by Nate Silver @ 7:30 AM
In detailing some of the evidence against Strategic Vision LLC, a pollster I am now almost certain is disreputable and fraudulent, I pointed in particular to a poll that they conducted on behalf of the Oklahoma Council of Public Affairs, an conservative-leaning educational thinktank. The poll purported to show that Oklahoma's high school citizens were deficient in some of the most basic aspects of citizenship. Only 23 percent of them knew that George Washington was the first president, the poll claimed! Just 43 percent knew that the Democrats and Republicans are the two major political parties!
These conclusions seemed dubious to me on their face. Several years ago, at my old consulting job, I participated in a project for the State of Ohio's public schools which involved sitting down in a third or fifth grade classroom for the better part of a day and seeing how the students were learning. Most of these observations took place in poor, post-industrial towns, which were still suffering the effects of the steel mill or the axle plant that had long ago left town. What struck me, most of all, was how smart the kids were, relative to my expectations. These kids might not have been the highest achievers -- but I'm pretty sure that more than 90 percent of them would have known who George Washington was. And these were third and fifth graders
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There were two items in particular that sent up warning flags for him: the one claiming that only 23 percent of the students knew the identity of George Washington, and another that claimed that about one in every ten students had listed the two major political parties as "Republican and Communist".
"Given the dialog of today, if they had said Republican and socialist, then maybe," Cannaday told me. "But communist -- that's just not something that you throw out there any more. I don't think Sarah Palin even used that term."
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10 Nov 09
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"Cannaday's survey however, found his students doing just fine: They answered an average of 7.8 out of the 10 questions correctly. By comparison, the high school students that were purportedly surveyed by Strategic Vision had gotten just 2.8 out of the items correct. 98 percent of the students on Cannaday's survey -- not 23 percent -- knew that George Washington was the first President. 81 percent -- not 14 percent -- knew that Thomas Jefferson had written the Declaration of Independence. 95 percent -- not 43 percent -- knew that the Democrats and Republicans are the major political parties. There was just no comparison between the two."
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11 Nov 09
Originally posted by telerionnot an unusual action for an economist, i guess ...
Originally posted by zeeblebot
i never really trusted [b] polls that didn't have a strong rightwing bias. they didn't PAY the high school students to take the survey. what are the chances they got honest answers to questions like find France on the map?[/i]
Fixed it for ya.[/b]
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11 Nov 09
Originally posted by zeeblebotAt best any poll is an educated guess, most are prefabricated conclusions fed to those likely to swallow. To substitute opinion for discourse and predation for care commission a poll.
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"Cannaday's survey however, found his students doing just fine: They answered an average of 7.8 out of the 10 questions correctly. By comparison, the high school students that were purportedly surveyed by Strategic Vision had gotten just 2.8 out of the items correct. 98 percent of the students on Cannaday's survey -- not 23 percent -- knew that Geor ...[text shortened]... icans are the major political parties. There was just no comparison between the two."
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Still, it is hard to go wrong criticizing the young - especially when the current generation has done such a great job!
11 Nov 09
Originally posted by sh76Years ago I somehow ended up on a polling list. I know I would frustrate the polling people by trying to steer the questions to what I would really answer. I would like it if the questions were listed with the results, but that would wreck a perfectly good headline.
Because one poll was fabricated it indicates that this sort of thing can and does happen. As such, you may want to take a second look at any poll that delivers seemingly anomalous results and ask questions like:
- Do the pollsters have an agenda?
- Is the pollster a reputable firm?
- Are there other polls that back up the data asserted in this poll?
Som ...[text shortened]... hould pause before assuming that all poll numbers thrown at us on a daily basis are legitimate.
11 Nov 09
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Originally posted by zeeblebotThay made a survey once where they asked "Do you trust polls?" and the result was that 96.1% answered a clear "No". However, 13.9 said "Yes", and the rest was "Don't know".
i never really trusted those polls. they didn't PAY the high school students to take the survey. what are the chances they got honest answers to questions like find France on the map?
11 Nov 09
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Originally posted by sh76But those results are not 'seemingly anomalous'. Almost all polls regarding US education seem to show that US children's geographic education is poor.
As such, you may want to take a second look at any poll that delivers seemingly anomalous results
I realize that polls are sometimes made up, more frequently though they are simply not done properly ie they numbers may not be statistically significant, the questions may be biased, and most importantly the conclusions usually do not correctly reflect the actual results.
For example, if you did a poll that asked for the location of France on a world map, and another one asking for the location of Uzbekistan, you would likely come to different conclusion from the two polls even thought the children being questioned were identical.
How many people here could correctly place Burkina Faso on a world map? I couldn't and I am African.
11 Nov 09
Originally posted by cheshirecatstevensTruly scientific polls shouldn't have lists. They question people completely at random.
Years ago I somehow ended up on a polling list. I know I would frustrate the polling people by trying to steer the questions to what I would really answer. I would like it if the questions were listed with the results, but that would wreck a perfectly good headline.