@vivify saidVaccinations work, but India's Delta wave crashed long before the vaxxes really kicked in.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/17/india-covid-vaccinations-record-new-cases-five-month-low
India COVID vaccinations near record, new cases at five-month low
India administers nearly 9 million vaccine doses in a day as new infections drop to the lowest since March 16.
Proof vaccinations work.
I hate to keep doing this because I'm really supremely pro-vax, but India's crash started in early May and its COVID levels have been pretty steady since mid-June. To attribute that solely to the vaccine is not intellectually honest.
Delta surges fade as quickly as they rise. That has happened in place after place after place and the first US states to start surging in June and early July seem to be cresting now (Nevada, Missouri and Louisiana, specifically). Florida didn't really start surging until mid-July, so it's probably at least a week or two from its crest, but it will crest and fall too. (Of course, when it inevitably does happen, the idiots on CNN and WaPo will claim it's because of school boards who defied DeSantis's ban on mask mandates - take that to the bank.)
Vaccines are awesome. They decrease your chance of being hospitalized or dying from COVID by somewhere between 90 and 99%, depending on who you ask. But you really play a dangerous intellectual game when you assume this sort of cause and effect.
@sh76 saidFrom January:
Vaccinations work, but India's Delta wave crashed long before the vaxxes really kicked in.
I hate to keep doing this because I'm really supremely pro-vax, but India's crash started in early May and its COVID levels have been pretty steady since mid-June. To attribute that solely to the vaccine is not intellectually honest.
Delta surges fade as quickly as they rise. That h ...[text shortened]... sk. But you really play a dangerous intellectual game when you assume this sort of cause and effect.
https://apnews.com/article/health-india-immunizations-coronavirus-pandemic-ab830864393480ea6dcc67b0571fc29c
India starts world’s largest COVID-19 vaccination drive, more than 300 million shots planned
India launched an aggressive campaign to have 300,000 million people vaccinated by August---which we're in right now. India deliberately aimed to curb the spread of of the virus through vaccination. It's no coincidence COVID rates dropped; this was a deliberate effort via India's push of vaccines:
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/02/06/964396284/photos-the-worlds-biggest-vaccine-campaign-has-begun-in-india
18 Aug 21
@sh76 said
Vaccinations work, but India's Delta wave crashed long before the vaxxes really kicked in.
I hate to keep doing this because I'm really supremely pro-vax, but India's crash started in early May and its COVID levels have been pretty steady since mid-June. To attribute that solely to the vaccine is not intellectually honest.
Delta surges fade as quickly as they rise. That h ...[text shortened]... sk. But you really play a dangerous intellectual game when you assume this sort of cause and effect.
To attribute that solely to the vaccine is not intellectually honest.
I don't think anyone's saying vaccines are the only tool available in the ol' toolbox. Isn't it also intellectually dishonest to discount the effect of the vaccine on reducing COVID in India by saying it's not the sole contributor?
18 Aug 21
@very-busty said300 million is a drop in the bucket for India.
From January:
https://apnews.com/article/health-india-immunizations-coronavirus-pandemic-ab830864393480ea6dcc67b0571fc29c
India starts world’s largest COVID-19 vaccination drive, more than 300 million shots planned
India launched an aggressive campaign to have 300,000 million people vaccinated by August---which we're in right now. India deliberately aimed ...[text shortened]... ions/goatsandsoda/2021/02/06/964396284/photos-the-worlds-biggest-vaccine-campaign-has-begun-in-india
Okay, maybe that's a slight exaggeration, but there's no way that vaccines were the primary reason India's COVID drop started in early MAY! By that point, at best, a fraction of that were actually fully vaxxed. It's been basically flat for the past 2 months and the low the hit may very well be ephemeral.
Vaccines may mitigate future surges and they certainly lower hospitalizations and mortality, but the legion false attributions so common in COVID parlance is a very poor way to dialogue about this.
If you look at the case graph from India, this will all be obvious. But aside from that, if India fell due to the vaccine, why have delta surges followed essentially the same pattern everywhere (6 weeks of surge; 1-2 of crest and slow decline; 4-6 weeks of sharp decline and then levelling off at levels low compared to the surge height but higher than the original baseline)?
18 Aug 21
@wildgrass saidI think the vaccines were only a small fraction of the reason for the COVID decline in India. I hate to put numbers on these things, but 10-20% feels about right.To attribute that solely to the vaccine is not intellectually honest.
I don't think anyone's saying vaccines are the only tool available in the ol' toolbox. Isn't it also intellectually dishonest to discount the effect of the vaccine on reducing COVID in India by saying it's not the sole contributor?
The benefits of the vax will manifest in lower mortality, lower hospitalizations, slowly declining baselines and less severe surges in the future. But attributing May's decline to the vaccine, which was barely getting going by then? In a country of well over a billion people?
Weak.
18 Aug 21
@sh76 saidI dunno pretty slipshod math on both our parts but in India there were 4,000+ deaths per day at peak so that would mean vaccines prevented 400-800 deaths per day.
I think the vaccines were only a small fraction of the reason for the COVID decline in India. I hate to put numbers on these things, but 10-20% feels about right.
The benefits of the vax will manifest in lower mortality, lower hospitalizations, slowly declining baselines and less severe surges in the future. But attributing May's decline to the vaccine, which was barely getting going by then? In a country of well over a billion people?
Weak.
Weak? That seems like a lot.
18 Aug 21
1 edit
@sh76 saidSo what do you think constitutes the major factor in the fall off of the infection rate?
I think the vaccines were only a small fraction of the reason for the COVID decline in India. I hate to put numbers on these things, but 10-20% feels about right.
The benefits of the vax will manifest in lower mortality, lower hospitalizations, slowly declining baselines and less severe surges in the future. But attributing May's decline to the vaccine, which was barely getting going by then? In a country of well over a billion people?
Weak.
I kind of agree, the main benefit of vaccination is better outcomes for the individual and their host health care system once they’ve even infected but I do believe that vaccinated people are less likely to transmit than unvaccinated people due to lack of transmission friendly symptoms.
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18 Aug 21
@kevcvs57 said27 fully vaccinated people just turned up positive for COVID on a cruise ship, most not showing symptoms. That pokes some serious holes in “what you believe” about transmission among the vaccinated.
So what do you think constitutes the major factor in the fall off of the infection rate?
I kind of agree, the main benefit of vaccination is better outcomes for the individual and their host health care system once they’ve even infected but I do believe that vaccinated people are less likely to transmit than unvaccinated people due to lack of transmission friendly symptoms.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2021/08/15/carnival-cruise-covid-19-outbreak-27-vaccinated-people-test-positive-for-coronavirus/amp/
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18 Aug 21
@wildgrass saidYou had the very same issue in the “Stats” thread. TIMING! You are putting the cart before the horse.To attribute that solely to the vaccine is not intellectually honest.
I don't think anyone's saying vaccines are the only tool available in the ol' toolbox. Isn't it also intellectually dishonest to discount the effect of the vaccine on reducing COVID in India by saying it's not the sole contributor?
18 Aug 21
@joe-shmo saidPerhaps you should read what I believe again because it seems to support what I believe 100%
27 fully vaccinated people just turned up positive for COVID on a cruise ship, most not showing symptoms. That pokes some serious holes in “what you believe” about transmission among the vaccinated.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2021/08/15/carnival-cruise-covid-19-outbreak-27-vaccinated-people-test-positive-for-coronavirus/amp/
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@kevcvs57 saidYou say they transmit less due to lack of symptoms…
Perhaps you should read what I believe again because it seems to support what I believe 100%
Yet here we have an outbreak among the vaccinated, most showing none to mild symptoms. Explain how this is not a contradiction on your part.
18 Aug 21
@kevcvs57 said===So what do you think constitutes the major factor in the fall off of the infection rate?===
So what do you think constitutes the major factor in the fall off of the infection rate?
I kind of agree, the main benefit of vaccination is better outcomes for the individual and their host health care system once they’ve even infected but I do believe that vaccinated people are less likely to transmit than unvaccinated people due to lack of transmission friendly symptoms.
Timing. The nature of COVID waves is that they ravage in area, picking off all the easy targets, then level off as the targets become scarcer and then plummet as it runs out of targets. Almost all COVID waves have essentially followed this pattern. The Delta waves have faster accelerations, higher crests and faster descents than the Wuhan-1 and Alpha waves, but the basic pattern is common to all.
18 Aug 21
@wildgrass saidYou're bringing up deaths. The OP refers to cases.
I dunno pretty slipshod math on both our parts but in India there were 4,000+ deaths per day at peak so that would mean vaccines prevented 400-800 deaths per day.
Weak? That seems like a lot.
Vaccines have a much stronger impact in deaths than on cases.
(And yes, that's a good thing.)