It's getting better - Slowly

I've been hesitant to add to the bushel of COVID threads here, but some overall good news is emerging:

This week’s national ensemble predicts that the number of newly reported COVID-19 deaths will likely decrease over the next 4 weeks, with 5,300 to 18,500 new deaths likely reported in the week ending October 23, 2021. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 724,000 to 753,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.

The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week will likely increase in 1 jurisdiction and decrease in 8 jurisdictions, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.

The overall picture shows a slow but steady improvement, due in no small part to the increase in vaccination rates (are you listening metal-brain??)

This is no time to start icing the champagne and declare victory, but if things continue on this path, we should see some return to normalcy by about Q2 of next year.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/forecasting/forecasting-us.html

You mean after two or three years a pandemic is no longer classified as a pandemic?

@mchill said
I've been hesitant to add to the bushel of COVID threads here, but some overall good news is emerging:

This week’s national ensemble predicts that the number of newly reported COVID-19 deaths will likely decrease over the next 4 weeks, with 5,300 to 18,500 new deaths likely reported in the week ending October 23, 2021. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 724,000 ...[text shortened]... 2 of next year.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/forecasting/forecasting-us.html

@eladar said
You mean after two or three years a pandemic is no longer classified as a pandemic?

@mchill said
This has nothing to do with terminology, it has to do with death rates. Please see link for expanded explanation.

@eladar said
Death counts determine pandemics.

@mchill said
I just reported the numbers, I'll leave the labels to others.

@eladar said
If a novel virus shows up and gets people sick but nobody dies, would they call it a pandemic?

@mchill said
would they call it a pandemic?

1. I don't know who "they" are.

2. I don't care what it's called.

3. I don't know the difference between a novel virus and a regular virus.

@Eladar
You mean you don't think it's a pandemic?

@eladar said
Death counts determine pandemics.

@mchill said
I've been hesitant to add to the bushel of COVID threads here, but some overall good news is emerging:

This week’s national ensemble predicts that the number of newly reported COVID-19 deaths will likely decrease over the next 4 weeks, with 5,300 to 18,500 new deaths likely reported in the week ending October 23, 2021. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 724,000 ...[text shortened]... 2 of next year.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/forecasting/forecasting-us.html

@metal-brain said
"The overall picture shows a slow but steady improvement, due in no small part to the increase in vaccination rates (are you listening metal-brain??)"

https://www.redhotpawn.com/forum/debates/covid-surges-in-most-vaxxed-nations.190576

Then why don't the most vaxxed nations have the lowest number of infections?
That is what you would expect if the gene vaccines improved things, but the opposite happened. Do you have an explanation?

@eladar said
Death counts determine pandemics.

@suzianne said
I've told you why numerous times. It's because the states with high vax rate also have a high number of ignorant anti-vaxxers and anti-maskers.

You're assuming high vax rate means more intelligent people than ignorant people. It could be true, but the ignorant crowd is always at least twice as loud.