Kamala Harris

@vivify said
Obama received more votes than Hillary did when she ran against Trump, and previously held the record for most votes received in an election. I doubt racism would've given Trump the edge in 2016 if Obama could've run against Trump. Given that Hillary won more votes than Trump, there's no reason to believe race or sex would've kept Kamala from receiving more votes as well. ...[text shortened]... stop Kamala in this election, it should've been enough to stop Biden as well, given Kamala's his VP.

Biden, unlike HRC, has positive favorability ratings. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-doesnt-have-a-popularity-problem-that-might-help-him-win/

@no1marauder said
Actually the pandemic had little effect on Trump's popularity; if anything his net disapproval on the eve of the election was better than it was in January 2020. I https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?cid=rrpromo

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-coronavirus/trumps-handling-of-coronavirus-pandemic-hits-record-low-approval-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN26T3OF

Trump's handling of coronavirus pandemic hits record low approval: Reuters/Ipsos poll

Americans are steadily losing confidence in President Donald Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, with his net approval on the issue that has dominated the U.S. election hitting a record low in a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.

@vivify said
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-coronavirus/trumps-handling-of-coronavirus-pandemic-hits-record-low-approval-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN26T3OF

Trump's handling of coronavirus pandemic hits record low approval: Reuters/Ipsos poll

Americans are steadily losing confidence in President Donald Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, w ...[text shortened]... issue that has dominated the U.S. election hitting a record low in a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Yes, they disapproved of his handling of the pandemic.

No, that did not have any discernible effect on his overall approval rating.

@no1marauder said
Yes, they disapproved of his handling of the pandemic.

No, that did not have any discernible effect on his overall approval rating.

To me, the pounding in the press he received as well as being exposed for knowingly lying about the pandemic, and his "inject bleach" comments, seemed to really damage him politically. To me, it seemed to be a pretty seismic shift.

*shrug*

@vivify said
To me, the pounding in the press he received as well as being exposed for knowingly lying about the pandemic, and his "inject bleach" comments, seemed to really damage him politically. To me, it seemed to be a pretty seismic shift.

*shrug*

Where does it show in his disapproval rating? His biggest drops were in mid-summer when the pandemic's effects had significantly decreased but the George Floyd story and aftermath occurred. And he recovered quite a bit in October when cases sharply increased.

@no1marauder said
Where does it show in his disapproval rating? His biggest drops were in mid-summer when the pandemic's effects had significantly decreased but the George Floyd story and aftermath occurred. And he recovered quite a bit in October when cases sharply increased.

Ratings alone don't show the whole story. They don't how incensed people were, how the crisis caused by COVID resulted in hospitals being overwhelmed and first responders dying as a result.

In short, poll numbers don't show outrage, which Trump received in spades. That's what made me go from predicting another Trump win to saying he'll lose but barely.

@vivify said
Ratings alone don't show the whole story. They don't how incensed people were, how the crisis caused by COVID resulted in hospitals being overwhelmed and first responders dying as a result.

In short, poll numbers don't show outrage, which Trump received in spades. That's what made me go from predicting another Trump win to saying he'll lose but barely.

(Shrug) So both your predictions were based on a misreading of the data.

@no1marauder said
(Shrug) So both your predictions were based on a misreading of the data.

What "misreading"?

Like I said, polls don't show the whole story. Polls predicted a much wider win for Biden than what was received.

@vivify said
What "misreading"?

Like I said, polls don't show the whole story. Polls predicted a much wider win for Biden than what was received.

Not really once all the votes are counted.

@vivify said
What "misreading"?

Like I said, polls don't show the whole story. Polls predicted a much wider win for Biden than what was received.

Here's Real Clear Politics final "No Toss UP States" map based on their polling averages: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

They got exactly two States out of 50 wrong if the present counts hold up: Florida and Georgia.

The post that was quoted here has been removed

"Clear majority" sure.

But 12 States and 2 Districts were close enough to be considered "Toss Ups" and that was where the election was decided. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Texas, Ohio, Iowa and Minnesota didn't wind up that close but the winning margins in the others were less than 4 points i.e. within the margin of error of most polls.

In short, the polls got the Presidential election basically right as far as results (if not margins in some States).