Pundit time again.
Will Trump score the smashing victory the polls are suggesting i.e. an absolute majority and a spread of 20 points or more over Haley?
Or will Haley stun the political world and defeat him?
Or something in-between (Trump win, but less than a majority and less than a 10 point spread over Haley)?
On the Democratic side, what percentage will Phillips and Williamson get in the face of Biden's write-in status?
20%? 25%? 30% or more?
My speculation - Republican -in between but I give a Haley upset as a possibility of around 20%.
Democrats - around 30%.
Anyone else?
I thought there'd still be a decent share of votes going to minor or dropped out candidates in the Republican primary, but over 99% so far is going to either Trump or Haley.
Right now, the Donald leads by 53% to 46% with 11% counted. https://news.yahoo.com/new-hampshire-primary-results-live-updates-as-trump-and-haley-go-head-to-head-and-most-polls-close-000425315.html
So "in between".
Phillips + Williamson + others are getting about 34% with 12% of the Democratic vote counted, a bit higher than I anticipated. https://decisiondeskhq.com/new-hampshire-presidential-primary-results/
A more telling stat, I thought, was in exit polling, 80% of people who voted Trump said that Biden did not legitimately win the 2020 election, while 83% of people who voted for Haley said that Biden did win legitimately in 2020.
The MAGA crowd seems to have a lock on the primaries thus far.
@suzianne saidOnly 35% of New Hampshire Republican primary voters self-identified as MAGA.
A more telling stat, I thought, was in exit polling, 80% of people who voted Trump said that Biden did not legitimately win the 2020 election, while 83% of people who voted for Haley said that Biden did win legitimately in 2020.
The MAGA crowd seems to have a lock on the primaries thus far.
Haley beat Trump badly among self-declared Independents (and these are Republican leaning Independents) and a whopping 85% of Haley voters answered "No" to the question "Trump fit to be President if convicted of a crime"?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/new-hampshire-primary-exit-polls-for-2024-elections/ar-BB1h9lsf
It won't be enough to deny Trump the Republican nomination, but those Exit Poll results show deep weaknesses for him in the General Election.
I'd say it was paradoxically a good night for Democrats, since Trump seems clearly a weaker opponent than Haley would be in November.
EDIT: In 2016, when Trump drew his inside straight to win despite losing the popular vote, he won Independents by 46% to 42%. https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls
In 2020, he lost them by a 54% to 41% margin. https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results
I'm surprised by Orange Hitler's weak performance in New Hampshire. Just 54.9% at the moment. I thought it would be 75% or more. And he's piiiiiissed that Haley is not bowing out, rather than happy that he squeaked a victory in the primary. I love that he's so miserable all the time. Maybe he'll be worm food by October.
Well, seemingly stupid is as stupid does and the white evangelicals and MAGA-morons have won the day.
I read it on the beeb. I’m not sure what made me cringe worse: trump being a sore winner (that man’s narcissim is boundless) or his former rival saying he loves him.
Sweet Jesus. If it was a film, you wouldn’t believe it possible.
@shavixmir saidOh yeah did you that numbnut tosser Tim Scott bombing his head about trying to get noticed by the base.
Well, seemingly stupid is as stupid does and the white evangelicals and MAGA-morons have won the day.
I read it on the beeb. I’m not sure what made me cringe worse: trump being a sore winner (that man’s narcissim is boundless) or his former rival saying he loves him.
Sweet Jesus. If it was a film, you wouldn’t believe it possible.
I saw him interviewed at the weekend and he was desperate to pretend that all the negative stuff he said about trump during his campaign as rally aimed at Biden.
The bad news is he was touted as one of the more principled members of the contenders 😂
Vivek is rapidly turning into Cheatah to Trumps Tarzan
@no1marauder saidWith 95% of the vote counted, Trump has an 11% margin over Haley. https://decisiondeskhq.com/new-hampshire-presidential-primary-results/
Pundit time again.
Will Trump score the smashing victory the polls are suggesting i.e. an absolute majority and a spread of 20 points or more over Haley?
Or will Haley stun the political world and defeat him?
Or something in-between (Trump win, but less than a majority and less than a 10 point spread over Haley)?
On the Democratic side, what percentage will Ph ...[text shortened]... s a possibility of around 20%.
Democrats - around 30%.
Anyone else?
So none of the above but most like an "in-between".
On the Democratic side, Phillips + Williamson, 24%, so a bit lower than I expected (Throwing in the 3.6% for Others makes it closer to my prediction, but alas, I didn't say to include them).
Oh, I just realised why trump was such a snowflakey sore winner during his speech. Even commenting on the woman’s dress (Jesus, the nastiness of the man is boundless)… it was hardly a win.
Seemingly 35% of republican voters will not vote for trump in the election.
Add to that Haley making blatantly clear that the republicans have lost nearly everything since 2018… and trump’s tiny, damaged ego just can’t handle it.