08 Sep 10
Originally posted by normbenignReally?
Palin at this time is a "king maker". Nobody on the Republican side can come close in fund raising, and those she endorses win. I don't see her running even in the primaries. She may play a role in determining the eventual nominee.
Like Rita Meyer, Clint Didier, Karen Handel, CeCe Heil for a start who Palin endorsed and then lost?
08 Sep 10
Originally posted by zeeblebothttp://www.ceceforcongress.com/
Cece Heil 😲?
"I’m pleased to lend my support to CeCe Heil’s campaign for Congress from Tennessee’s 5th District. CeCe is another tough “mama grizzly” with the experience, passion, and integrity to restore some common sense to Washington."
08 Sep 10
Originally posted by PsychoPawnyou thinking that Cece Heil is representative of your thesis?
http://www.ceceforcongress.com/
"I’m pleased to lend my support to CeCe Heil’s campaign for Congress from Tennessee’s 5th District. CeCe is another tough “mama grizzly” with the experience, passion, and integrity to restore some common sense to Washington."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennessee%27s_5th_congressional_district
The 5th is a very safe seat for the Democratic Party, due almost entirely to the influence of heavily Democratic Nashville. Some pockets of Republican influence exist in Belle Meade, and portions of neighboring Cheatham and Wilson counties undergoing rapid suburbanization. However, they are no match for the overwhelming Democratic trend in most of Nashville. While Republicans made several strong bids for the district in the late 1960s and early 1970s (largely over racial issues such as a 1971 busing order), they have only put up token candidates since 1972.
08 Sep 10
Originally posted by zeeblebotShe lost in the Republican primary. What does the district being primarily democratic mean with respect to that? Did Democrats vote in the Republican primary?
you thinking that Cece Heil is representative of your thesis?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennessee%27s_5th_congressional_district
The 5th is a very safe seat for the Democratic Party, due almost entirely to the influence of heavily Democratic Nashville. Some pockets of Republican influence exist in Belle Meade, and portions of neighboring Cheatham ...[text shortened]... r racial issues such as a 1971 busing order), they have only put up token candidates since 1972.
It seems that Palin's endorsement didn't have enough of an effect in a Republican primary to boost Cece past third place in the republican primary.
What do you think my thesis is?
My thesis is simply that a Palin endorsement is not a singular deterministic factor in winning a primary or election and hence she isn't the "king maker" that normbenign seems to suggest when he said that those she endorses win. She endorsed Cece and she didn't even come close to being the candidate - not to mention the other examples.
08 Sep 10
Originally posted by PsychoPawneven Eric Pearson endorsed her, sort of!
She lost in the Republican primary. What does the district being primarily democratic mean with respect to that? Did Democrats vote in the Republican primary?
It seems that Palin's endorsement didn't have enough of an effect in a Republican primary to boost Cece past third place in the republican primary.
What do you think my thesis is?
My the ...[text shortened]... and she didn't even come close to being the candidate - not to mention the other examples.
it'd be hard to say how far Palin boosted Heil unless you had some idea of where Heil started.
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http://teapartyorg.ning.com/profile/EricPearson
Eric Pearson added a discussion to the group Tennessee
I must admit Cece Hail has some real solutions.
Cece Heil is one of my opponents for the 5th district congressional seat in Tennessee, but I must admit out of all the other candidates she has some real solutions to the problems facing our Nation. Please take a look at her main web site at: http…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennessee%27s_5th_congressional_district
United States House elections, 2010: Tennessee District 5
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Jim Cooper 28,655 89.33%
Democratic Eric Pearson 2,212 6.90%
Democratic Eric Schechter 1,212 3.78%
Republican David Hall 11,930 27.51%
Republican Jeffery Hartline 10,005 23.07%
Republican Cece Heil 9,767 22.52%
Republican Vijay Kumar 3,157 7.28%
08 Sep 10
Originally posted by zeeblebotit'd be hard to say how far Palin boosted Heil unless you had some idea of where Heil started.
even Eric Pearson endorsed her, sort of!
it'd be hard to say how far Palin boosted Heil unless you had some idea of where Heil started.
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http://teapartyorg.ning.com/profile/EricPearson
Eric Pearson added a discussion to the group Tennessee
I must admit Cece Hail has some real solutions.
Cece Heil is one of my opponents for the 5th dis ...[text shortened]... ,005 23.07%
Republican Cece Heil 9,767 22.52%
Republican Vijay Kumar 3,157 7.28%
You're right, but the point is that no matter how much she did boost her, she wasn't a real 'king maker' in this case.
I am not saying that she has no sway or influence at all - in some districts I think she does have a positive effect and in some I also think her endorsement may just be a liability.
Her influence is not a universal deciding factor.
08 Sep 10
Originally posted by zeeblebotIt's possible. He might have been trying to suggest subtlely that since Palin agrees with some of her policies and he agrees with some of her policies then Palin would also agree with his policies. I said policies too many times in this paragraph.
i wonder if Pearson would have endorsed her (sort of, in his post) if Palin hadn't.
08 Sep 10
Originally posted by PsychoPawnFrom what I've found, Tennesee has an Open primary.
She lost in the Republican primary. What does the district being primarily democratic mean with respect to that? Did Democrats vote in the Republican primary?
"Open. A registered voter may vote in any party primary regardless of his own party affiliation. When voters do not register with a party before the primary, it is called a pick-a-party primary because the voter can select which party's primary he or she wishes to vote in on election day.
Because of the open nature of this system, a practice known as raiding may occur. Raiding consists of voters of one party crossing over and voting in the primary of another party, effectively allowing a party to help choose its opposition's candidate. The theory is that opposing party members vote for the weakest candidate of the opposite party in order to give their own party the advantage in the general election."
08 Sep 10
Originally posted by MacSwainI thought of that since I know that some districts have open primaries, but you would think that she would get to second if democrats did storm that primary (which we don't have any significant reason to believe they did in this case) and vote for one weaker candidate.
From what I've found, Tennesee has an Open primary.
[b]"Open. A registered voter may vote in any party primary regardless of his own party affiliation. When voters do not register with a party before the primary, it is called a pick-a-party primary because the voter can select which party's primary he or she wishes to vote in on election day. ...[text shortened]... the opposite party in order to give their own party the advantage in the general election."[/b]
08 Sep 10
1 edit
Originally posted by PsychoPawnalso -- a lot of conservative independents or DINOs who couldn't or wouldn't vote in a closed republican primary might sincerely have a strong level of support for a Tea Party or Palin-type candidate running for the GOP nomination
I thought of that since I know that some districts have open primaries, but you would think that she would get to second if democrats did storm that primary (which we don't have any significant reason to believe they did in this case) and vote for one weaker candidate.