Sweden's Changing Course?

@no1marauder said
From the NYT:

"the coronavirus is blamed for 5,420 deaths in Sweden, according to the World Health Organization. That might not sound especially horrendous compared with the more than 129,000 Americans who have died. But Sweden is a country of only 10 million people. Per million people, Sweden has suffered 40 percent more deaths than the United States, 12 times more th ...[text shortened]... 20110&nl=the-morning&regi_id=84100064&segment_id=32873&te=1&user_id=29d88cdc9425dc3b85bf0acd7302da24

There are some interesting unknowns for me and I think they are unknowns that can only be speculated about.

Do the countries that have had more deaths now have higher levels of immunity (and people for whom the virus is no longer novel even if they mainly fought it via T cells) in the members of the population who meet high numbers of others per day and who would otherwise spread the second wave (shop keepers, public transport drivers etc)? Will those countries get far fewer deaths if there is a second wave, reducing the differences in the overall numbers of deaths?

In the U.K. I have seen a lot of retailers let workers go and attribute that to COVID when the trend towards on line retail might have been driving things that way already. Are there ulterior motives for businesses to blame COVID if they wanted to let people go anyway?

Will people attribute recession entirely to COVID because no government would want to be seen as having been to some extent headed that way anyway?

@no1marauder said
From the NYT:

"the coronavirus is blamed for 5,420 deaths in Sweden, according to the World Health Organization. That might not sound especially horrendous compared with the more than 129,000 Americans who have died. But Sweden is a country of only 10 million people. Per million people, Sweden has suffered 40 percent more deaths than the United States, 12 times more th ...[text shortened]... 20110&nl=the-morning&regi_id=84100064&segment_id=32873&te=1&user_id=29d88cdc9425dc3b85bf0acd7302da24

I don't believe they have failed to collect on economic gains. The "gains" they collected on are "lack of loss". Sweden's UR had a net change of 2% ( currently peak ) over the same period over which the US has suffered a net 8% increase ( 11% peak ). The relative total economic loss is not simply the difference between these values it depends on a host of parameters. The unrealized economic potential is the "Area Under the Curve", and Sweden is minimizing that. They "flattened the economic curve". There is also the somewhat unsavory business of computing the economic advantage that has yet to be realized in reduced subsidized medical care. Nursing homes are expensive places to "live".

@Earl-of-Trumps
That's a theory but there is not much way of telling. The work I saw was the idea Neandertal genes made modern human women more fertile but that is the only effect even theorized as to the affects of Neandertal genes.

@sonhouse said
@Earl-of-Trumps
That's a theory but there is not much way of telling. The work I saw was the idea Neandertal genes made modern human women more fertile but that is the only effect even theorized as to the affects of Neandertal genes.

I found it. New York Times July 5

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/health/coronavirus-neanderthals.html

DNA Inherited From Neanderthals May Increase Risk of Covid-19
A stretch of DNA linked to Covid-19 was passed down from Neanderthals 60,000 years ago, according to a new study.

@petewxyz said
There are some interesting unknowns for me and I think they are unknowns that can only be speculated about.

Do the countries that have had more deaths now have higher levels of immunity (and people for whom the virus is no longer novel even if they mainly fought it via T cells) in the members of the population who meet high numbers of others per day and who would otherwi ...[text shortened]... ID because no government would want to be seen as having been to some extent headed that way anyway?

If we are doomed to find no vaccine to the disease then countries which have been relatively unaffected must either cut themselves off from the rest of the world or expect second, third and forth waves which will kill people in proportion to the infection fatality rate by age group. In the worst case natural immunity to covid is innate only and life expectancy will drop because covid-19 will displace the common cold. Nightmare scenarios aside, when a vaccine becomes available covid will be driven into extinction. Since SARS-CoV-1 has apparently become extinct in humans, even without a vaccine, it's entirely possible SARS-CoV-2 will go the same way.

@deepthought said
If we are doomed to find no vaccine to the disease then countries which have been relatively unaffected must either cut themselves off from the rest of the world or expect second, third and forth waves which will kill people in proportion to the infection fatality rate by age group. In the worst case natural immunity to covid is innate only and life expectancy will drop ...[text shortened]... e extinct in humans, even without a vaccine, it's entirely possible SARS-CoV-2 will go the same way.

So you are saying why Sweden's approach was wrong was because they didn't gamble on the fact that it could soon go extinct in humans. In the event that it does, Norway is fine...they locked down hard enough to halt the spread. In the event that it doesn't go extinct...Better not look out the window Norway...if you do, its coming back for you.

@joe-shmo said
So you are saying why Sweden's approach was wrong was because they didn't gamble on the fact that it could soon go extinct in humans. In the event that it does, Norway is fine...they locked down hard enough to halt the spread. In the event that it doesn't go extinct...Better not look out the window Norway...if you do, its coming back for you.

This is the big problem with this virus.
One can claim this country or that country did great fighting the virus.
The problem is, it's too early to judge. If this virus does not let up until we reach
herd immunity status, then all of this lockdown business will have been for naught.

This means that countries like Sweden and Brazil were right all along.
And we should really wonder how much better our economy and our lives
would have been had we not hit the panic button.

It's true that flattening the curve allows hospitals to be able to handle the surge
of infected patients but just how long is the solution going to be viewed
as better than free reign?

We'll see in the not too distant future.

@Earl-of-Trumps
The thing about viruses is they lose if the human host dies. So in that regard, the virus itself usually mutates to a lesser fatal variety so they can live in a host without killing it, like the cold or flu, if it 'only' kills say 1/10th of 1 % then it would not be a threat to the existence of humanity.
I expect C19 will eventually undergo such mutations, maybe in ten years after a million have died or so.

@joe-shmo said
So you are saying why Sweden's approach was wrong was because they didn't gamble on the fact that it could soon go extinct in humans. In the event that it does, Norway is fine...they locked down hard enough to halt the spread. In the event that it doesn't go extinct...Better not look out the window Norway...if you do, its coming back for you.

Very possibly after a vaccine is found.

And certainly after more effective treatments are discovered.

@earl-of-trumps said
This is the big problem with this virus.
One can claim this country or that country did great fighting the virus.
The problem is, it's too early to judge. If this virus does not let up until we reach
herd immunity status, then all of this lockdown business will have been for naught.

This means that countries like Sweden and Brazil were right all along.
And we sh ...[text shortened]... olution going to be viewed
as better than free reign?

We'll see in the not too distant future.

I note with interest that currently Sweden's new case rate, after a dramatic increase, has dropped just as quick. Any thoughts?
It in fact appears to be falling faster than it was increasing.