According to Nate Silver, the upcoming UK elections could be very interesting...
Nate Silver, the statistician who correctly predicted the results in every state in the 2012 US election, has suggested there could be an “incredibly messy outcome” to the UK general election.
In a BBC Panorama programme broadcast on Monday night, Silver revealed that a model he backs puts the Conservatives on 283 seats, Labour on 270, the SNP on 48, the Lib Dems on 24, the DUP on eight, Ukip on one and the other parties on 16. This suggests that no two parties would be able to form a majority without the help of a third, leading to the possibility of a so-called rainbow coalition.
He said: “If these numbers held steady, you’d have the Tories as the largest party but Labour plus the SNP are more. Even then they are not a majority. The betting markets seem to think there would be more paths for Miliband in that case, but it’s an incredibly messy outcome. There is still enormous uncertainty about who forms a government after 7 May.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/27/nate-silver-statistician-us-2012-predicts-uk-general-election-result
How about it UK'ers? Does Silver even have a clue? Who do you think will win, and who do you want to win? Please give us a break from US politics.
It's an unusual situation because the electoral system in the UK is quite hostile to minor parties. Even the current two-party coalition is highly unusual, but now there is a possibility that a three-party coalition could form. Perhaps those potential minor coalition parties will have learned something from the Lib Dems and actually ask for something tangible before agreeing to form a government.
Originally posted by KazetNagorraYes, it's a pity they didn't demand proportional representation.
It's an unusual situation because the electoral system in the UK is quite hostile to minor parties. Even the current two-party coalition is highly unusual, but now there is a possibility that a three-party coalition could form. Perhaps those potential minor coalition parties will have learned something from the Lib Dems and actually ask for something tangible before agreeing to form a government.
Originally posted by SleepyguyI think the Conservatives, and also the Lib Dems, will do better than expected. I think the prospect of an SNP/Labour 'coalition' will terrify a lot of voters to vote tactically for almost anything else. So UKIP supporters, in particular, will switch to Conservatives except where there is a genuine chance of them winning.
According to Nate Silver, the upcoming UK elections could be very interesting...[quote]Nate Silver, the statistician who correctly predicted the results in every state in the 2012 US election, has suggested there could be an “incredibly messy outcome” to the UK general election.
In a BBC Panorama programme broadcast on Monday night, Silver revealed that ...[text shortened]... Who do you think will win, and who do you want to win? Please give us a break from US politics.
My prediction, after the election, is another Conservative/Lib Dem coalition.
Originally posted by SleepyguyIt seems to me that no electoral system is free of problems, mostly for the ultimate losers.
According to Nate Silver, the upcoming UK elections could be very interesting...[quote]Nate Silver, the statistician who correctly predicted the results in every state in the 2012 US election, has suggested there could be an “incredibly messy outcome” to the UK general election.
In a BBC Panorama programme broadcast on Monday night, Silver revealed that ...[text shortened]... Who do you think will win, and who do you want to win? Please give us a break from US politics.
Originally posted by KazetNagorraIt took you two about 6 posts to ride this hobby horse back into the rut.
I find fault with crappy electoral systems, it is true. That could have something to do with them being crappy.
I had hope for this thread. RO made a good stab at it, but then...
*sigh*
In the final TV 'debate', I think Cameron performed well. No-one in the audience really liked him, some hate him, but then no-one expects a Tory to be likeable. He did, however, look and sound Prime Ministerial, and people do react positively to that.
I think Miliband made a bad error when he said Labour did not overspend the last time they were in power. It doesn't matter whether this is true or not. But Labour have been fighting to try and convince everyone they can be trusted on the economy. To brush off the huge increase in debt they presided over prior to the financial crisis when the economy was booming simply sends the message 'we don't think this was a mistake and we'd do it again'. I think they will lose a lot of 'swing voters' for this.
Also, his ruling out of any deal with the SNP looked a bit desperate, and just reinforces the growing view that his only shot at power is with the support of the SNP. His performances in purely personal terms during the election have been vastly improved. But I don't think this will be enough.
As former resident Brit I'll make a brief guest reappearance.
Nate Silver's projection is in line with other models here in the UK suggesting no overall majority.
Although Kazet is generally right that a first-past-the-post system disadvantages minor parties, this is untrue in the case of a party with a strong geographical base. The Scottish National Party may end up holding the balance of power despite polling less than 5% nationwide - while UKIP, currently polling about 15%, is likely to win only one or two seats. The expected success of the SNP in Scotland is coming as a nasty shock to Labour who traditionally held a majority of Scottish seats and who would be in a strong position to secure a majority in the UK overall if they could still count on doing so.
Arguably Ed Milliband has been rather foolish in seeking categorically to rule out a coalition with the SNP, since as a left-of-centre party they're his logical and obvious partners. Their support for nationwide measures could probably be secured with the promise of further devolution for Scotland, and the resulting government would be stable.
I definitely think the Lib Dems are going to suffer heavily at this election. In most of the country they had basically become a protest party for voters who thought Labour had moved too far to the right since 1997, and almost all these voters are returning to Labour or opting for the Greens. Only in the south-west do the Lib Dems attract traditional Tory voters who might approve of the last five years of coalition. I actually think the Tories may end up getting a few more seats than is expected (there tend to be a few voters who are ashamed to admit they are voting right-of-centre!); but their chances of forming a stable coalition are going to be dramatically lower if the Lib Dems drop as expected.
I'm voting Labour in this election and would not regret a Labour - SNP coalition. But after Milliband's denials, that might be almost impossible to set up. I wouldn't be surprised if there had to be another election in six months' time.