25 Oct 06
1 edit
For all the talk of Labour's shallow electoral base, the Tories are basing their campaign on exactly the same premise - and while the media is constantly harping on the alleged lead David Cameron enjoys amongst prospective voters when given a choice between himself and the Chancellor, it's worth remembering that Gordon Brown enjoys a 27-point lead over him when it comes to the tiny group of swing voters who will actually decide the next general election.
If the Tories fail to win an outright majority (I suspect we're heading for either a minority Labour government or a hung parliament), it's hard to see how Cameron's authority wouldn't be eroded if Gordon Brown hung on - after two election defeats in the 80s, Labour moved onto its Neil Kinnock phase and then into its Blair phase...three defeats later, the Tories are still stuck in their Kinnock phase. If they don't get their act together soon, it's curtains.
25 Oct 06
Originally posted by catfoodtimElectorally, the Labour party is on shaky ground.
I think you're right about a minority government or coalition.
Could PR be back on the agenda, as a damage limitation exercise?
Edit: Forget that, no chance. It would take too much pride swallowing.
There is the prospect of Scotland being out of the UK by the next again UK elections, so labour would be 40 or so seats down.
I don't know when the labour party last got more votes than the tories in England alone.
Maybe, if they're smart, they'll go for PR.
25 Oct 06
Originally posted by RedmikeThe day Scotland is out of the UK is the day I move to England, which will then almost certainly enjoy near permanent Conservative government. However, I believe Scotland would greatly rue the day of its independence should there ever be such a day. I will still be too young to vote at the next Scottish election, but were I voting, I would feel a strong urge to vote Labour just to keep out the SNP.
Electorally, the Labour party is on shaky ground.
There is the prospect of Scotland being out of the UK by the next again UK elections, so labour would be 40 or so seats down.
I don't know when the labour party last got more votes than the tories in England alone.
Maybe, if they're smart, they'll go for PR.
25 Oct 06
3 edits
Originally posted by princeoforangeScotland effectively voted Tory in 1924. Labour then formed its first government in Westminster - the idea that Scotland is necessarily somehow some vast socialist counterweight to Home County Conservative clubs is actually just an indication of the defeatism of the Tories south of the border, although to be frank I tend to think Scotland has often acted as the conscience of the UK over the last twenty years, and I'm actually looking forward to seeing a Maxtonian like Gordon Brown taking the helm - not that I have any illusions about his alleged socialism.
The day Scotland is out of the UK is the day I move to England, which will then almost certainly enjoy near permanent Conservative government.
When Scotland does eventually become independent, the geopolitical landscape will change with it, so as a (lukewarm) Labour voter I'm not particularly worried about the bogey of permanent Conservative government...Ivor Crewe was drawing the same pessimistic conclusions in the 80s before the election of Labour in 199, and the erosion of predictable, tribal electoral patterns out-foxed him: the awful reality of near-permanent Conservative government is precisely what will drive the electorate to the left, just as it did in the late 90s.
25 Oct 06
Originally posted by AmauroteDespite the fact that in the last who knows how many General Elections the Conservatives had a majority in England and were only defeated by socialist Scotland and Wales? Even in 1997 the Tories won in England.
The idea that Scotland is necessarily somehow some vast socialist counterweight to Home County Conservative clubs is actually just an indication of the defeatism of the Tories south of the border
25 Oct 06
1 edit
Originally posted by princeoforangeI repeat for emphasis: the idea that Scotland is necessarily somehow some vast socialist counterweight to Home County Conservative clubs is an indication of the defeatism of the Tories south of the border. Until the 50s, Scotland was seen as a source of strength for the Conservative Party, not a weakness, and the kind of defeatism that permeates their current attitude to Scotland doesn't bode well for their attempts to regain power.
Despite the fact that in the last who knows how many General Elections the Conservatives had a majority in England and were only defeated by socialist Scotland and Wales? Even in 1997 the Tories won in England.
26 Oct 06
Originally posted by princeoforangeThat would depend on whether you were registered to vote in Skye or Glasgow.
The day Scotland is out of the UK is the day I move to England, which will then almost certainly enjoy near permanent Conservative government. However, I believe Scotland would greatly rue the day of its independence should there ever be such a day. I will still be too young to vote at the next Scottish election, but were I voting, I would feel a strong urge to vote Labour just to keep out the SNP.
In Glasgow, the best unionist vote is probably labour, as you say. In the fptp vote at least. Not so sure about Skye.
But then, you're completely wasting your list vote if you give it to the labour party in Glasgow. You could safely give this to the Tories.
Many prominent celebs said they'd leave the UK if labour got elected. None did.
26 Oct 06
Originally posted by RedmikeIn all likelyhood I would be registered to vote in both places if I was 18+!! However I would probably be voting in Glasgow, in which case I would probably vote Conserative on the second vote (although my support for the Tories is waning fast under Cameron) and not bother with the first vote at all. In Skye I would do largely the same thing, first vote is no contest there too, only its a safe Lib Dem seat, which is even worse than Labour.
That would depend on whether you were registered to vote in Skye or Glasgow.
In Glasgow, the best unionist vote is probably labour, as you say. In the fptp vote at least. Not so sure about Skye.
But then, you're completely wasting your list vote if you give it to the labour party in Glasgow. You could safely give this to the Tories.
Many prominent celebs said they'd leave the UK if labour got elected. None did.
27 Oct 06
Originally posted by princeoforangeI share your predicament regarding voting for Cameron on his present showing.
In all likelyhood I would be registered to vote in both places if I was 18+!! However I would probably be voting in Glasgow, in which case I would probably vote Conserative on the second vote (although my support for the Tories is waning fast under Cameron) and not bother with the first vote at all. In Skye I would do largely the same thing, first vote is no contest there too, only its a safe Lib Dem seat, which is even worse than Labour.
27 Oct 06
Originally posted by RedmikeI would love to see an independent Scotland. What we have now is a fudge that suits no one.
Electorally, the Labour party is on shaky ground.
There is the prospect of Scotland being out of the UK by the next again UK elections, so labour would be 40 or so seats down.
I don't know when the labour party last got more votes than the tories in England alone.
Maybe, if they're smart, they'll go for PR.
However I dont think that England would necessarily be tory for evermore. I would think that the Lib Dems and UKIP would make large inroads into the English Political landscape.
27 Oct 06
Originally posted by invigorateI think that might well be the case, with the Greens and the left (In their various forms in England & Wales) making some progress too.
I would love to see an independent Scotland. What we have now is a fudge that suits no one.
However I dont think that England would necessarily be tory for evermore. I would think that the Lib Dems and UKIP would make large inroads into the English Political landscape.