Was Ukraine joining NATO ever realistic?

https://www.politifact.com/article/2022/apr/14/ask-politifact-whats-ukraines-history-trying-join-/

Ukraine expressed in interest in joining NATO as early as 2002 but NATO never provided any real indication that this could be a possibility. Ukraine applied to be part of their "action plan" to put them on a path to joining NATO which was never approved.

It seems that despite Ukraine's interest in NATO, this was never a realistic possibility.

Given that, couldn't we say that Russia's reasons for invading Ukraine are actually flawed? And I'm not talking about whether the invasion was justified; I mean that Russia's rationale was fundamentally flawed.

A few posters have rightly pointed out that NATO has continued expanding, despite assurances given that would not; but in the case of Ukraine, who has expressed interest for a long time in NATO membership without any progress, using the point that Russia was "provoked" into invading doesn't hold up.

Thoughts?

@vivify said
https://www.politifact.com/article/2022/apr/14/ask-politifact-whats-ukraines-history-trying-join-/

Ukraine expressed in interest in joining NATO as early as 2002 but NATO never provided any real indication that this could be a possibility. Ukraine applied to be part of their "action plan" to put them on a path to joining NATO which was never approved.

It seems that des ...[text shortened]... y progress, using the point that Russia was "provoked" into invading doesn't hold up.

Thoughts?

Viv: Ukraine expressed in interest in joining NATO as early as 2002 but NATO never provided any real indication that this could be a possibility.

That is not true:

23. NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO.

Bucharest Summit Declaration Issued by the Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Bucharest on 3 April 2008

https://web.archive.org/web/20200714204022/http://www.summitbucharest.gov.ro/en/doc_202.html

@no1marauder said
Viv: Ukraine expressed in interest in joining NATO as early as 2002 but NATO never provided any real indication that this could be a possibility.

That is not true:

23. NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO.

Bucharest Summit Declaration Issued ...[text shortened]... 2008

https://web.archive.org/web/20200714204022/http://www.summitbucharest.gov.ro/en/doc_202.html

Soooo why are they not members then, 14 years seems an awfully longtime for an application process 🤔
People here have got passport applications sorted quicker than that.

@no1marauder said
Viv: Ukraine expressed in interest in joining NATO as early as 2002 but NATO never provided any real indication that this could be a possibility.

That is not true:

23. NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO.

Bucharest Summit Declaration Issued ...[text shortened]... 2008

https://web.archive.org/web/20200714204022/http://www.summitbucharest.gov.ro/en/doc_202.html

Yes. But their MAP application, as mentioned in the OP, was never approved, despite that declaration. If you keep reading beyond the statement you posted from that document, NATO makes it clear that Ukraine still has an application process to go through.

I thought my use of "real indication" would make clear that I didn't mean there was no indication at all, but a *realistic* indication that Ukrainian membership would pass through the bureaucracy to an actual vote.

So to clarify: despite NATO's announcement, given that Ukraine never moved pass any initial phases, was their joining Ukraine realistic?

It seems Russia had no real worry over Ukraine ever being a part of NATO.

@vivify said
Yes. But their MAP application, as mentioned in the OP, was never approved, despite that declaration. If you keep reading beyond the statement you posted from that document, NATO makes it clear that Ukraine still has an application process to go through.

I thought my use of "real indication" would make clear that I didn't mean there was no indication at all, but a *realis ...[text shortened]... ning Ukraine realistic?

It seems Russia had no real worry over Ukraine ever being a part of NATO.

So to be clear your position is, NATO announced that Ukraine "will become" a member but Russia "had no real worry over Ukraine ever being a part of NATO."

@kevcvs57 said
Soooo why are they not members then, 14 years seems an awfully longtime for an application process 🤔
People here have got passport applications sorted quicker than that.

Do we really have to go over this AGAIN?

"In June 2017, the Ukrainian Parliament adopted legislation reinstating membership in NATO as a strategic foreign and security policy objective. In 2019, a corresponding amendment to Ukraine’s Constitution entered into force.
In September 2020, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy approved Ukraine’s new National Security Strategy, which provides for the development of the distinctive partnership with NATO with the aim of membership in NATO."

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_37750.htm

NATO's 2016 Comprehensive Assistance Package for Ukraine goals include:

" It is Ukraine’s stated objective to reform its Armed Forces according to NATO standards and to achieve their
interoperability with NATO forces by 2020. Assisting Ukraine in meeting this objective is one of the primary objectives of the Comprehensive Assistance Package."

https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2016_09/20160920_160920-compreh-ass-package-ukra.pdf

@no1marauder said
So to be clear your position is, NATO announced that Ukraine "will become" a member but Russia "had no real worry over Ukraine ever being a part of NATO."

From the document you posted:

"MAP is the next step for Ukraine and Georgia on their direct way to membership."

After 14 years, Ukraine never completed that first step. Ukraine was no closer to being part of NATO then when that claim about Ukraine being a member was made.

So what is Russia's logic after 14 years later for invading?

@no1marauder said
"In June 2017, the Ukrainian Parliament adopted legislation reinstating membership in NATO as a strategic foreign and security policy objective. In 2019, a corresponding amendment to Ukraine’s Constitution entered into force.
In September 2020, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy approved Ukraine’s new National Security Strategy, which provides for the development of the disti ...[text shortened]... /www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2016_09/20160920_160920-compreh-ass-package-ukra.pdf

Despite this, Ukraine was no closer than they were 14 years ago. Their initial application wasn't approved.

So how is NATO the blame for Russia's invasion when NATO, all these years later, still hasn't approved Ukraine's initial application?

@vivify said
From the document you posted:

"MAP is the next step for Ukraine and Georgia on their direct way to membership."

After 14 years, Ukraine never completed that first step. Ukraine was no closer to being part of NATO then when that claim about Ukraine being a member was made.

So what is Russia's logic after 14 years later for invading?

This is a useless, legalistic argument.

NATO officials have made it clear that IF Ukraine decides to join, it will be allowed to. They said it in 2008. Then the country elected a President who opposed NATO membership in 2010, so the issue lie dormant until 2014 when he was overthrown in an illegal coup, Shortly after that coup:

"The door remains open for Ukraine to join NATO, but the head of the military alliance has urged Kiev to focus on reform.

Anders Fogh Rasmussen made his remarks ahead of a two-day meeting of NATO defence ministers from its 28 members.

“That’s for the Ukrainians to decide. Actually, I don’t think it’s the most urgent priority for the new Ukrainian leadership. We all remember what we decided at the NATO Summit in Bucharest in 2008.

“We decided that Ukraine will become a member of NATO, of course, provided the country so wishes and provided the country fulfills the necessary criteria,” said Fogh Rasmussen.

So it’s for Ukraine to decide. But I think there are more urgent priorities to address right now. We stand ready to continue our engagement with Ukraine.”

https://web.archive.org/web/20210118035504/https://www.euronews.com/2014/02/26/door-to-nato-remains-open-for-ukraine

Since then, as I have shown, the post coup governments have made clear that they wished to join NATO. Russia does not have to believe NATO guarantees that Procedure A or B will be followed esp. since previous guarantees by both leaders of NATO States and the Ukraine have been "re-evaluated".

You're either being incredibly naïve or disingenuous.

@vivify said
From the document you posted:

"MAP is the next step for Ukraine and Georgia on their direct way to membership."

After 14 years, Ukraine never completed that first step. Ukraine was no closer to being part of NATO then when that claim about Ukraine being a member was made.

So what is Russia's logic after 14 years later for invading?

Possible explanations for Russia's "logic" in attacking Ukraine in February were offered here: https://www.redhotpawn.com/forum/debates/why-now.192443/page-2

@no1marauder said
This is a useless, legalistic argument.

NATO officials have made it clear that IF Ukraine decides to join, it will be allowed to. They said it in 2008.

Ukraine expressed interest in being part of NATO as far back 2002; Ukraine became even more serious about joining in 2006 (see Politico article). 20 years later, Ukraine still isn't passed the application process.

Why didn't Putin invade in 2002 when Ukraine first expressed interest?? Or 2006? Or 2008 when NATO made the announcement you cited?

Post after post you've claimed the reason was "aggressive expansionism" from NATO; "aggressive" expansion which includes NOT approving Ukraine's initial application after 14 years.

Regardless of Ukraine's wishes and despite that declaration that they will become members, joining NATO has not been a goal that Ukraine moved any closer to after 14 years.

@vivify said
Ukraine expressed interest in being part of NATO as far back 2002; Ukraine became even more serious about joining in 2006 (see Politico article). 20 years later, Ukraine still isn't passed the application process.

Why didn't Putin invade in 2002 when Ukraine first expressed interest?? Or 2006? Or 2008 when NATO made the announcement you cited?

Post after post you ...[text shortened]... ll become members, joining NATO has not been a goal that Ukraine moved any closer to after 14 years.

Perhaps you should actually read what NATO officials have said rather than merely stomping your feet and continually repeating baseless claims.

You are, like kev, twisting my position.

Viv: Post after post you've claimed the reason [for the Russian invasion] was "aggressive expansionism" from NATO;

Actually, in NO post did I ever make such a claim.

From last April:

"“NATO is the only way to end the war in Donbas,” Zelenskiy told NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in a phone call, according to a statement from Zelenskiy’s office. A Membership Action Plan laying out Ukraine’s entry path into the alliance “will be a real signal for Russia”, he said.

He also called for NATO members to strengthen their military presence in the Black Sea region.

‘Serious concerns’

Stoltenberg said he had called President Volodymyr Zelensky “to express serious concern about Russia’s military activities in and around Ukraine and ongoing ceasefire violations”.

“NATO firmly supports Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. We remain committed to our close partnership.”

https://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/ukraine-calls-for-path-into-nato-after-russia-masses-troops/

Why is the head of a military alliance calling a non-member State's President to express concern about another non-member State's activities?

@no1marauder said
repeating baseless claims.

What "baseless claim"?

Actually, in NO post did I ever make such a claim.

You've never cited "aggressive NATO expansionism" as a factor in the invasion of Ukraine? I think most posters who've read your comments would be surprised by that claim.