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General Forum

  1. Joined
    20 Oct '02
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    551266
    19 Sep '15 01:51
    Between the dates of 11 & 12 March of this year, in a time period of a little over 20 hours, 3 long term players, Luck, sagator, and Tukumnieks, flat out stopped moving. In a little over 20 hours. Between the 3 of them, they had made 2,079,843 moves. What are the odds of that?
  2. SubscriberBigDoggProblem
    The Advanced Mind
    bigdogghouse.com/RHP
    Joined
    26 Nov '04
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    120609
    19 Sep '15 02:07
    Originally posted by Bobla45
    Between the dates of 11 & 12 March of this year, in a time period of a little over 20 hours, 3 long term players, Luck, sagator, and Tukumnieks, flat out stopped moving. In a little over 20 hours. Between the 3 of them, they had made 2,079,843 moves. What are the odds of that?
    All 3 accounts paid money, so it's all good. 😛
  3. Subscriberdivegeester
    Racist, apparently
    Dumnonia
    Joined
    16 Feb '08
    Moves
    88343
    19 Sep '15 02:07
    Originally posted by Bobla45
    Between the dates of 11 & 12 March of this year, in a time period of a little over 20 hours, 3 long term players, Luck, sagator, and Tukumnieks, flat out stopped moving. In a little over 20 hours. Between the 3 of them, they had made 2,079,843 moves. What are the odds of that?
    Are you implying that they are the same person?
  4. Subscriberrookie54
    free tazer tickles..
    wildly content...
    Joined
    09 Mar '08
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    138528
    19 Sep '15 02:09
    Originally posted by divegeester
    Are you implying that they are the same person?
    one person, making well over 2 million moves???

    nope...
  5. Joined
    20 Oct '02
    Moves
    551266
    19 Sep '15 02:18
    Originally posted by divegeester
    Are you implying that they are the same person?
    I'm not sure if I am implying it or not. That may sound like a cop out, but I would be lying if I didnt say that it did cross my mind. I have played Harri (Luck) numerous times over the years, and Tukumnieks a few times, although I cant remember chatting with him. Harri had a relative that that announced he had suffered a stroke and that he would be back when he was fit. I did find that a little odd. In the end, I think I just find it to be an incredible coincidence. If you were to go to the MAP page, find any 3 black stars that total approximately 2 million moves and watch them all stop moving within the next 20 hours, never to move again. I find the odds of that happening fairly incredible.
  6. Subscribercoquette
    Already mated
    Omaha, Nebraska, USA
    Joined
    04 Jul '06
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    922551
    19 Sep '15 02:34
    walks like a duck, talks like a duck, it's obviously a cow.
  7. Joined
    20 Oct '02
    Moves
    551266
    19 Sep '15 03:00
    Originally posted by coquette
    walks like a duck, talks like a duck, it's obviously a cow.
    I won't pretend I really know what that means, I googled it and I think you are trying to tell me I am overthinking the situation. Maybe. But if you, Mctayto, and snjortp, who between the 3 of you have approximately 21 years of play on RHP, and of the hundreds of thousands of people who have passed through this site over the years are 4th, 5th, and 6th on a list of the all time movers were to all suddenly stop moving within the next 20 hours, I have to say that is quite a coincidence. And no, I don't think you are all the same person, but what are the odds of something like that happening?
  8. Standard memberlemon lime
    ookookachu
    oLd ScHoOl
    Joined
    31 May '13
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    5577
    19 Sep '15 03:07
    Originally posted by Bobla45
    Between the dates of 11 & 12 March of this year, in a time period of a little over 20 hours, 3 long term players, Luck, sagator, and Tukumnieks, flat out stopped moving. In a little over 20 hours. Between the 3 of them, they had made 2,079,843 moves. What are the odds of that?
    It's probably a coincidence. I say this because there are probably enough active members for three of anything similar to occur. And I'm saying 'probably' because...
    1. I don't know how many active members there are, but I'm guessing it's a large enough number for this to happen.
    2. It's only a gut feeling, and not based on any sort of statistical analysis... but it's probably right.
  9. Joined
    20 Oct '02
    Moves
    551266
    19 Sep '15 03:15
    Originally posted by lemon lime
    It's probably a coincidence. I say this because there are probably enough active members for three of anything similar to occur. And I'm saying 'probably' because...
    1. I don't know how many active members there are, but I'm guessing it's a large enough number for this to happen.
    2. It's only a gut feeling, and not based on any sort of statistical analysis... but it's probably right.
    I like #2....I wish there was a statistician on site, I think what interests me the most is what the odds would be of this occurring.
  10. Standard memberGrampy Bobby
    Boston Lad
    USA
    Joined
    14 Jul '07
    Moves
    43012
    19 Sep '15 03:341 edit
    Originally posted by Bobla45
    Between the dates of 11 & 12 March of this year, in a time period of a little over 20 hours, 3 long term players, Luck, sagator, and Tukumnieks, flat out stopped moving. In a little over 20 hours. Between the 3 of them, they had made 2,079,843 moves. What are the odds of that?
    @Luck "Last moved 191 days 5 hours and 20 minutes ago" | 'All Moves 808611"

    @sagator "Last moved 191 days 13 hours and 58 minutes ago" | "All Moves 776191"

    @Tukumnieks ''Last moved 190 days 17 hours and 45 minutes ago" | "All Moves 495041"

    Fascinating thread; the odds at best are probably even less than the proverbial slim to none.

    Thanks, @Bobla45. "All Moves 423612"
  11. Standard memberGrampy Bobby
    Boston Lad
    USA
    Joined
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    43012
    19 Sep '15 03:40
    Originally posted by coquette
    walks like a duck, talks like a duck, it's obviously a cow.
    @coquette "All Moves 696051" <--- kudos!
  12. Joined
    20 Oct '02
    Moves
    551266
    19 Sep '15 03:41
    Originally posted by Grampy Bobby
    @Luck "Last moved 191 days 5 hours and 20 minutes ago" | 'All Moves 808611"

    @sagator "Last moved 191 days 13 hours and 58 minutes ago" | "All Moves 776191"

    @Tukumnieks ''Last moved 190 days 17 hours and 45 minutes ago" | "All Moves 495041"

    Fascinating thread; the odds at best are probably even less than the proverbial slim to none.

    Thanks, Bobla45.
    Thanks GB, I remember discussing this with you a few months ago. I am not a statistician, but like lemonlime said, this is just a "gut" thing. My god, what are the odds? Hundreds and hundreds of thousands of people have passed through this site since 2001, and 3 top 20 players all shut it down in a 20 hour time frame. I think I would have better odds of hitting Powerball than seeing this....
  13. Standard memberlemon lime
    ookookachu
    oLd ScHoOl
    Joined
    31 May '13
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    5577
    19 Sep '15 05:201 edit
    Originally posted by Bobla45
    I like #2....I wish there was a statistician on site, I think what interests me the most is what the odds would be of this occurring.
    Yeah, it occurred to me after getting offline that your own gut feeling about this would carry more weight than mine. I read your message again... you know them, but do the three of them know each other?
  14. SubscriberPonderable
    chemist
    Linkenheim
    Joined
    22 Apr '05
    Moves
    526329
    19 Sep '15 05:27
    It is a conicidence. Both Tukumieks and sagators ad their subscription running out and finished their last game (coincidently, since this also depended on their opponenets) at that date, while Harri (Luck) was under full steam and had dozens of active agmes and an active subscription.

    The odds are small but well above zero.
  15. Standard memberGrampy Bobby
    Boston Lad
    USA
    Joined
    14 Jul '07
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    43012
    19 Sep '15 06:101 edit
    Originally posted by Ponderable
    It is a conicidence. Both Tukumieks and sagators ad their subscription running out and finished their last game (coincidently, since this also depended on their opponenets) at that date, while Harri (Luck) was under full steam and had dozens of active agmes and an active subscription.

    The odds are small but well above zero.
    "The chance of an average person living in the US being struck by lightning in a given year is estimated at 1 in 960,000, while the chance of being struck by lightning in a lifetime is 1 in 12,000 (estimated lifespan of 80 years)..." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lightning_strike
    _______________________________________________

    Ponderable, if "the chance of being struck by lightning in a lifetime is 1 in 960,000" what would be the equation
    for the odds of three people being struck by lighting within the same twenty four hour period?
    ____________________

    Footnote: Wouldn't the sudden disappearance of three chess players who made a combined total of "2,079,843 moves" during their membership here have caused a considerable negative impact on Red Hot Pawn's total daily chess move activity volume since their disappearance?.
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