2018 Candidate predictions!

Hey all

Here are my predictions for the up and coming Candidates: YouTube

What are yours?

This one is very very close.

The 8 are:

Mamedyarov, Kramnik, Wes So, Aronian, Caruana,
Ding Liren, Grischuk, and Karjakin.

That is a very talented field. Who knows?

Sitting nicely on the fence - I've lifted a post from another forum
just to see what other say and get the ball rolling.
Actually I agree with this unnamed poster.

My preference for the winner, in reverse order:
8. Caruana. I just think he is the least impressive of the candidates' field

7. Ding Liren. I don't know much about him, and I think Bu is a better match up, from the Chinese players

[Here I disagree I think Ding is a super play and could do it]


6. Grischuk. He isn't the strongest of all the contenders,.

5. Mamedyarov

4. Kramnik. Interesting just to see how he would perform, 18 years after his first WC title.

3. Karjakin. It was exciting and entertaining the last time, so why not?

2. So. I love Wesley's style of chess - it is highly creative. I think he is the most imaginative player in the world right now.

1. Aronian. A super-solid player who is also a great sportsman.

Big fan of Aronian and with a world of momentum behind him after an amazing year
he's gotta be a top contender for sure.

I was surprised to see Grischuk there, the guy is quality but not WC standard.
Kramnik has often been a dark horse, but could be becoming a grey....

Any decisive results in the opening few rounds will be crucial.

IMO three tiers, within which I don't really have any basis for deciding.

Tier 1: Aronian, So, Liren
Tier 2: Kramnik, Caruana, Karjakin
Tier 3: Grischuk, Mamedyarov

I think most likely is Aronian, for experience, consistency, and his recent superb form, or maybe Liren as I think he's a generally underrated player, and I'd be psyched to see either to be honest. So I'm not as confident about, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him finish top given his attacking style which could take him to an early lead.
Caruana is one of the stronger contenders, but he doesn't seem to play as aggressively, which I think will hurt him. Kramnik I think is in the mix, but both older and less immediately impressive, and given Karjakin's performance in the Championships was a stale drawish sandwich, I don't think he'll do great.
Grischuk and Mamedyarov IMO aren't as consistent or, to be frank, as good as the others.

Players i would like to win;
1. Aronian - Simply because he rarely plays a dull game against Carlsen.
2. Caruana - Because he at least stands a chance of causing an upset
3. Kramnik - Perhaps a bit of a controversial choice, but i feel that he and Carlsen play interesting games against each other. Though Kramnik would probably go ultra safety so this might be a bad choice.

Players I think have a chance
1. Karjakin - I think, of anyone, he actually has the best chance of qualifying. He came 2nd in 12/14 season, and first in 14/16. His style and approach I think is perfectly suited to the candidates. (EDIT: |The only player he really struggled with in these two tournaments was Anand, who doesn't figure this time)

2. Aronian - If he arives in form, I think he is the strongest player.

3. Caruana - He will need to be at his best (which he hasn't really been since 2014 imo). His record against Carlsen is pretty good, so a match wouldn't be a forgone conclusion.

4. Wesley So - Another player who has perhaps dipped a little in the last year, though that is in comparison to a 60+ game unbeaten streak so that is hardly surprising. While i think he could win the candidates, I don't really think he would stand a chance against Carlsen.

5. Kramnik has a slim chance IMO. If Anand can qualify well into his 40's, why not Kramnik? He has the most experience by almost a decade over the other guys. He has been over 2800 for a couple of years (far more consistent than anyone else, though perhaps a bit less active). He has been an opening trend setter for years now, if he arrives with new tricks, who knows what could happen.

+3 has been the winning score for two consecutive candidates now. IMO, these 5 are the only players i can see achieving this without a loss.

The only player i would definitely not want to win is Mamedyarov. Not because I have any particular dislike for this player, I think he is an exciting player to watch. It is just that Carlsen would just spank him without effort. His style is far too risky and Carlsen is just so damned accurate, it would be a whitewash.

I'm going with Dong Liren, if only to see some new blood again challenging Magnus

Mamedyarov has been so hot lately. I expect him to win it. I'd much rather see Aronian, So, or Caruana.

Originally posted by @byedidia
Mamedyarov has been so hot lately. I expect him to win it. I'd much rather see Aronian, So, or Caruana.

I think it would be a bit of a surprise if he did win, but anyone who comes out on top of that field will deserve it. Very tough opposition! I still recon Carlsen would utterly destroy him though. Carlsen leads 13-3 in all formats (draws excluded) against Mamedyarov.

I think Aronian is too old, So has turned into a Nakamura clone lately when it comes to playing Carlsen, and Caruana had the heart taken out of him when he lost that last round game to Karjakin in the last Candidates. After Dong I also like Mamedyarov.

Mamedyarov and Aronian are the favorites in my opinion. Both have done well in recent tournaments.

Originally posted by @marinkatomb
I think it would be a bit of a surprise if he did win, but anyone who comes out on top of that field will deserve it. Very tough opposition! I still recon Carlsen would utterly destroy him though. Carlsen leads 13-3 in all formats (draws excluded) against Mamedyarov.

I recon Carlsen will destroy whomever the challenger turns out to be.

Originally posted by @greenpawn34
3. Karjakin. It was exciting and entertaining the last time, so why not?

2. So. I love Wesley's style of chess - it is highly creative. I think he is the most imaginative player in the world right now.

1. Aronian. A super-solid player who is also a great sportsman.

I agree with those top three, in the same order.

https://chess24.com/en/watch/live-tournaments/fide-berlin-candidates-2018/2/1/3

Follow the live games with commentary using the link above, round 2 started 20 minutes ago!

Originally posted by @byedidia
I recon Carlsen will destroy whomever the challenger turns out to be.

He didn't exactly "destroy" Karjakin.. who is usually rated around 12th to 15th .