Potential economic paradox (Tried it in General Fo

Originally posted by royalchicken
My parents and I are about to pay large sums to have a guy in a cardigan explain that to me 😉.

Check for sandals.
Cardigans aren't sufficient you fool!!!
Jeez, cardigan-only status hints at impostershipness. Sheesh.

To summarise:
Cardigan only = careful...he may not be fully committed or may even have transferred from a non-mathematical department
Cardigan + sandals = likely to be real
Cardigan + sandals + socks = definite genuine article
Cardigan + sandals + socks - minus wedding ring = an absolute object specimen, entrust this man with your mathematical career and don't look back

Originally posted by T1000
Check for sandals.
Cardigans aren't sufficient you fool!!!
Jeez, cardigan-only status hints at impostershipness. Sheesh.

To summarise:
Cardigan only = careful...he may not be fully committed or may even have transferred from a non-mathematical department
Cardigan + sandals = likely to be real
Cardigan + sandals + socks = definite genuine article
...[text shortened]... ute object specimen, entrust this man with your mathematical career and don't look back

LOL 😀. However:

Someone who might be one of my teachers may provide a counterexample:

http://www.ma.ic.ac.uk/~buzzard/stuff/pic.jpg

Originally posted by royalchicken
LOL 😀. However:

Someone who might be one of my teachers may provide a counterexample:

http://www.ma.ic.ac.uk/~buzzard/stuff/pic.jpg

Hmm, orange clothes? He's got potential though looks a little on the young side to be a lecturer.

PS: I fear for the Moby look-alike...that seagull look like it's going to go straight into the side of his head.

Originally posted by T1000
Hmm, orange clothes? He's got potential though looks a little on the young side to be a lecturer.

PS: I fear for the Moby look-alike...that seagull look like it's going to go straight into the side of his head.

What's the word? Tchar? The seagull IS the lecturer, obviously.

Originally posted by telerion
Answer the following two questions.

Please limit your answers to the options provided. No explainations from you needed at this point. Just a one-letter response is sufficient. Please do not post questions. Instead message them to me.
...[text shortened]... ally and fill every interested party in on this in a day or two.

Is there any stakes? Is this two diffrent balls, or two bets on the same ball?

* same ball, two stakeless bets: AC (or BD) will yeild 1000 any which way..

*two diffrent balls, first AB second CD: A,D

Originally posted by chasparos
Is there any stakes? Is this two diffrent balls, or two bets on the same ball?

* same ball, two stakeless bets: AC (or BD) will yeild 1000 any which way..

*two diffrent balls, first AB second CD: A,D

No, there are no stakes (if by stakes you mean some sort of fee to play or penalty for not winning). You've got nothing to lose really. It's also not a combination gamble. That is you can't combine the options for the first and second question.

Really it's about your perception of expected utility. Given the setup (urn, information about color distribution of balls), would you prefer the gamble A or the gamble B? Now removing gamble A and Gamble as options would you prefer gamble C or gamble D?
No balls are actually drawn. But if one were would would you want A instead B? How about C instead of D?

So basically your second answer.

Then we go back and look at how you answered and what that says about you expected utility function (If such a thing exists 🙂 )

Originally posted by telerion
Answer the following two questions.

Please limit your answers to the options provided. No explainations from you needed at this point. Just a one-letter response is sufficient. Please do not post questions. Instead message them to me.

Ok here goes.

The following description applies to both questions.

There is an urn that contains 300 balls. 100 ...[text shortened]... rticipation.

I'll keep a tally and fill every interested party in on this in a day or two.

B and D (I like taking chances)

Ok, so far I have.

oishi = BC
seraphimvultur = BC
chasparos= AD
iamtiger=BD

We need more responses. Let me know if I missed one. Even if you think it is arbitrary or are indifferent between the gambles in one or both of the questions just slap one of the gambles down. I mean if you were really in the position to take these gambles surely you wouldn't balk at a free chance to win $1000?

Originally posted by telerion
Ok, so far I have.

oishi = BC
seraphimvultur = BC
chasparos= AD
iamtiger=BD

We need more responses. Let me know if I missed one. Even if you think it is arbitrary or are indifferent between the gambles in one or both of the questions just slap one of the gambles down. I mean if you were really in the position to take these gambles surely you wouldn't balk at a free chance to win $1000?

Assume: Blue & Green balls are selected randomly. I.e., as far as I know, there is an equal probability of each of the 200 blue/green balls being blue or green - or stated another way, I have no reason to believe that the person selecting the balls to go into the urn is either inclined to give away money (he is more likely to put in blue balls), or is inclined to keep his money (he is more likely to put in green balls).

Gamble A/B - equal probability, no preference
Gamble C/D - equal probability, no preference

However, if we throw out my assumption....

My personal preference in A/B is A since I know that I at least have a 1 in three chance of picking up a grand, and I haven't risked anything, versus anywhere from a 0% to 2 in 3 chance with B. In C/D it's C, since I know I have a 2 in 3 chance, where as with D my odds range from 1 in 3 to 100% based on the kindness of random chance and/or the ball selector.

Short answer: AC (but only for emotional reasons) "Do you feel lucky, punk?"

I think there is a non-zero probability that the house would try to cheat by manipulating the blue/green proportion after I chose.

Therefore:
P(a) = 1/3
P(b) = 1/3 - P(cheating)
P(c) = 2/3
P(d) = 2/3 - P(cheating)

P(a)=P(b)+P(cheating) => P(a) > P (b)
P(c)=P(d)+P(cheating) => P(c) > P (d)

My choice: AC!

Palynka: AC
The Plumber: AC
oishi = BC
seraphimvultur = BC
chasparos= AD
iamtiger=BD

AD, but I can't remember why, so dont' ask me to explain it >.<

That's cool. Thanks for responding.

A and C

D

My first decision was that for either case, the choices were equal. It doesn't matter which I pick. A=B, C=D.