@metal-brain said
I don't know. Every excerpt that has been posted is consistent with the data. I have not seen a contradiction so far, just bias based on cherry picked irrelevancies.
I'm asking you a question. What distinguished Holgate (2007) from other Sea Level Studies? You seem to be implying there is one, so you tell me.
It was a simple question. You copied this specific article into threads on at least three occasions. Typically when choosing a reference to make a point, there is a reason to select a particular one instead of another. In this case, apparently, there was no rationale?
It seemed suspicious since Holgate is a 12 year old study. Similar to your frequent jag about the heat island effect, some of the buoys used to calculate GMSL are contaminated by local effects. To correct this Holgate removed low quality buoys from the analysis and concludes that only a few buoys are needed to make the same conclusion, although to me their reasoning for removing 95% of the buoys is confusing. I was not previously aware that sea level rise is non uniform and highly dynamic, even on short time scales.
However, there is a problem with the figures in Holgate. In fact this enigma was well appreciated years prior (e.g. [1]). A rise of 1.6-1.9 mm/yr indicates a discrepancy in the earth's bank account. As detailed in Gregory et al [2], there isn't enough water displaced from thermal expansion and deglaciation to account for that rise. In other words, if you accept the figures from Holgate, early in the 20th century something other than thermal expansion and deglaciation must have been contributing.
What explains it? Volcanic activity? Maybe aliens? In Hay et al. [3] they use much more comprehensive approaches relative to Holgate to propose that the earlier figures were wrong. They conclude that GMSL increased more slowly in the early 20th and is increasing 3X faster now. For obvious reasons, this has implications for future predictive algorithms, especially in low-lying areas. Consider using this reference instead of Holgate for future discussions.
(not that you'll read them, but for anyone interested in learning new things.... For those who love physics, the PNAS article is jargon-y.)
[1] https://www.pnas.org/content/99/10/6550
[2] https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00319.1
[3] https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14093