So what do you think about the people that I mentioned earlier, the two people in my department who want Sarah Palin for US president, who would also dismiss this sunspot thing as ridiculous pseudoscience, and acknowledge that the impact of humans on the climate is the most significant forcing mechanisms?
I'd say they are wrong. They received the same kind of education that you had and believe the same set of assumptions that you believe.
We'll just have to see if the earth cools down due to the sun or if the earth continues to heat up.
Originally posted by EladarAnd what, pray tell, sort of education is that? All that we learned is how to apply physics to the atmosphere, unless I'm missing something.
[b]
So what do you think about the people that I mentioned earlier, the two people in my department who want Sarah Palin for US president, who would also dismiss this sunspot thing as ridiculous pseudoscience, and acknowledge that the impact of humans on the climate is the most significant forcing mechanisms?
I'd say they are wrong. They received th ...[text shortened]... just have to see if the earth cools down due to the sun or if the earth continues to heat up.[/b]
Do you have any citations from respectable peer-reviewed scientific journals about the connections between sunspots and climate? I promise you that if one exists, someone has studied it. (Oil companies pumped enough money into global-warming-denialism in the 1990s that you'd think *someone* would have followd that connection if it was real!)
Originally posted by convectMy apologies.
And what, pray tell, sort of education is that? All that we learned is how to apply physics to the atmosphere, unless I'm missing something.
Do you have any citations from respectable peer-reviewed scientific journals about the connections between sunspots and climate? I promise you that if one exists, someone has studied it. (Oil companies pumped enou ...[text shortened]... sm in the 1990s that you'd think *someone* would have followd that connection if it was real!)
Friis-Christensen, E. and K. Lassen 1991. Length of the solar cycle, an indication of solar activity closely associated with climate. Science 254, 698-700.
Lane, L.J., M.H. Nichols, and H.B. Osborn 1994: Time series analyses of global change data. Environ. Pollut., 83, 63-68.
Willson, R.C. 1997. Total solar irradiance trend during solar cycles 21 and 22. Science, 277, 1963-5.
These all discuss what you were talking about. I thought you were talking about the 11-year sunspot cycle, when you clearly weren't.
The current consensus is that this effect (as I did mention earlier, because it is included in the models) is small but not negligible compared to human emissions.
Originally posted by EladarIt's a given the temperatures will fluctuate, the real question is which way the chart is headed. Most of the evidence says up. You are not going to get melting glaciers and such on an Earth that is cooling unless that trend is on a thousand year long cycle or something like that.
We'll just have to see how things turn out. Only time will tell if the earth will continue to heat up or if the temps will continue to fluctuate.
Originally posted by sonhouseOkay. I stand corrected. Fluctuations have indeed occurred.
It's a given the temperatures will fluctuate, the real question is which way the chart is headed. Most of the evidence says up. You are not going to get melting glaciers and such on an Earth that is cooling unless that trend is on a thousand year long cycle or something like that.
Yesterday afternoon, the temperature here was 79F (26C). But when I woke up this morning, the temp was 52F (11C). Global cooling! I read something on the Internet about sunspots.....
I can't wait to tell everyone at work about this! My career is made!
Originally posted by convectShhhh, it's a secret, nobody knows yet.
Okay. I stand corrected. Fluctuations have indeed occurred.
Yesterday afternoon, the temperature here was 79F (26C). But when I woke up this morning, the temp was 52F (11C). Global cooling! I read something on the Internet about sunspots.....
I can't wait to tell everyone at work about this! My career is made!
Originally posted by tomtom232Hmm. Well, you're right that the melting of the ice caps would most likely weaken the jet stream. This is why it's a reasonable guess that the kind of thunderstorms I study (midlatitude severe storms that like to drop tornadoes) would become less likely.
Global warming, if true, would lead to another ice age. Maybe the cooling suggests we are heading that direction.
The ice age would happen because the melting of the polar ice caps would cause disruption in the jet stream.
As far as the ice age thing goes, "abrupt climate change" is one of the popular theories right now. This would happen not because of changes in the jet stream (I'm not entirely sure how that could possibly cause an ice age, honestly) but because of a global ocean current that redistributes heat across the globe, called the "Meridonial Overturning Circulation." Here's a great page on it: http://www.wunderground.com/education/abruptclimate.asp
Current theory does not have the globe warming enough in the next hundred years (even with pessimistic estimates) to bring about an ice age.
The "cooling" suggested by Eladar comes from variations in solar output. He is quite convinced that climatologists are wrong (based on things said by non-climatologists) and that these variations are more important than the human contribution. However, the consensus in the atmospheric sciences is that the globe is warming, primarily due to human-released greenhouse gases.
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Originally posted by convectThe current is what I meant. Thanks for clearing that up. 😳
Hmm. Well, you're right that the melting of the ice caps would most likely weaken the jet stream. This is why it's a reasonable guess that the kind of thunderstorms I study (midlatitude severe storms that like to drop tornadoes) would become less likely.
As far as the ice age thing goes, "abrupt climate change" is one of the popular theories right now. iences is that the globe is warming, primarily due to human-released greenhouse gases.
edit: I didn't know it would be abrupt either, thanks for clearing that up also.
I just came across this article and thought of this thread:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=A1YourView&xml=/opinion/2008/11/16/do1610.xml
From what I understand, the cooling trend that was 2007 has continued through 2008. Here's hoping that global warming kicks in soon so that my natural gas bill will be lower!
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Originally posted by tomtom232…Global warming, if true, would lead to another ice age. …
Global warming, if true, would lead to another ice age. Maybe the cooling suggests we are heading that direction.
The ice age would happen because the melting of the polar ice caps would cause disruption in the jet stream.
If you are talking here about a global ice age then that isn’t true.
Some places may become cooler but most places will become warmer and the overall global temperature will just keep going up no matter which way you look at it.
…The ice age would happen because the melting of the polar ice caps would cause disruption in the JET stream
…(my emphasis)
Shouldn’t that be the gulf stream?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2003/nov/13/comment.research
I am sure it is bound to also effect the jet stream as well but, as far as I am aware, this is not the main concern of what might cause northern Europe to cool .
Also, according to this theory, it would only be northern Europe (including the UK) that would be plunged into a mini ice age …leaving the rest of the world to swelter in the ever increasing heat.
Originally posted by Eladar…If the ever growing CO2 in the atmosphere is supposed to bring ever increasing heat (global warming) then why has the earth been cooling off for about a year and a half now?…
At the moment, no part of the world is sweltering under ever increasing heat.
If the ever growing CO2 in the atmosphere is supposed to bring ever increasing heat (global warming) then why has the earth been cooling off for about a year and a half now?
Because, in the short term, natural fluctuations in global temperatures will dwarf the long-term warming trend.
When summer is approaching, the temperature from one day to the next varies -if the temperature has been cooling off the last day and a half or even the last ten days, should I conclude that there will be no warm summer?